Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Market Price (2/22/2026): $5.85 | Market Cap: $140.0 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Market Price (2/22/2026): $5.85Market Cap: $140.0 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -86% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33% | |
| Key risksGEMI key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and slowing revenue growth, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -86% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 103% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 33% |
| Key risksGEMI key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and slowing revenue growth, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Gemini Space Station reported a significant earnings per share (EPS) miss for Q3 2025 on November 10, 2025. The company posted an EPS of ($1.81), substantially missing the consensus estimate of ($0.82) by $0.99. This news caused the stock to decline by 16.5% the day after the announcement.
2. The company disclosed a sharp increase in operating expenses and projected substantial net losses in its preliminary 2025 financial outlook. On February 17, 2026, Gemini Space Station announced expected operating expenses between $520 million and $530 million for 2025, a significant rise from $308 million in 2024. This led to an estimated net loss of $587 million to $602 million for the year.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -68.3% change in GEMI stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.35 | 5.82 | -68.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117 | 117 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | -68.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 36.5% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.2% | 37.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.4% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.6% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 3.0% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 75.9% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 50.1% | 34.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEMI Return | - | - | - | - | -69% | -40% | -81% |
| Peers Return | -31% | -67% | 145% | 91% | 54% | -29% | 15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 0% | 83% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEMI Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 39% | 36% | 58% | 56% | 58% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEMI Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -70% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -71% | -13% | -19% | -27% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COIN, HOOD, PYPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
GEMI has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to COIN, HOOD, PYPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
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- Orbital Habitation Services: Provides modular living and working spaces for governmental agencies, private companies, and researchers in Earth orbit.
- Microgravity Research & Development: Offers state-of-the-art laboratory facilities and support for scientific experiments, material science, and pharmaceutical development in zero-gravity environments.
- Space Logistics & Resupply: Manages the transport of cargo, equipment, and personnel to and from its space stations using proprietary or partnered spacecraft.
- Space Tourism Experiences: Delivers premium, short-duration travel packages for private citizens to experience life and views from an orbiting space station.
- In-Orbit Satellite Servicing: Utilizes its station's capabilities and robotic arms for deploying, maintaining, refueling, and repairing satellites in various orbits.
AI Analysis | Feedback
As a public company named "Gemini Space Station" (symbol: GEMI), it is presumed to be involved in the development, operation, and provision of services related to space stations. Such a company would primarily cater to other companies, government agencies, and research institutions that require access to orbital facilities for various purposes, including scientific research, in-orbit manufacturing, payload hosting, and astronaut support.
Based on this business model, Gemini Space Station's major customers would likely include:
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): As a leading U.S. government agency for space exploration and scientific discovery, NASA would be a significant customer, potentially contracting for space station modules, research facilities, logistical support, or crew accommodation for U.S. and international astronauts.
- European Space Agency (ESA): This intergovernmental organization, dedicated to space exploration, science, and applications, would likely be another key customer, utilizing Gemini's stations for European scientific missions, technological demonstrations, and astronaut training.
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (Symbol: LMT): A major global security and aerospace company, Lockheed Martin could be a customer for various reasons, such as contracting for specialized space station components, utilizing orbital platforms for advanced material research, or as a partner in large-scale government contracts that require access to space infrastructure.
- Merck & Co., Inc. (Symbol: MRK): A global pharmaceutical company, Merck could leverage the unique microgravity environment of Gemini's space stations for advanced biotechnological research, including protein crystallization, drug discovery, and developing new materials and manufacturing processes that benefit from orbital conditions.
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Tyler Winklevoss, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Tyler Winklevoss co-founded Gemini Space Station in 2014 with his twin brother, Cameron Winklevoss. The company operates a crypto asset exchange platform, proprietary wallet infrastructure, custody solutions, and other related services.
Daniel Chen, Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
Daniel Chen joined Gemini Space Station as Chief Financial Officer. Prior to Gemini, he served as Vice President at Affirm, where he was responsible for capital markets and banking partnerships and helped increase access to secured funding to over $20 billion. Chen has also held positions at MetLife Investments and Morgan Stanley. He is tasked with driving Gemini's financial strategy as the company progresses into its next growth phase.
Cameron Winklevoss, President and Vice Chairman of the Board
Cameron Winklevoss co-founded Gemini Space Station in 2014 alongside his twin brother, Tyler Winklevoss. He also serves as the Vice Chairman of the Board.
Marshall Beard, Chief Operating Officer and Director
Marshall Beard holds the positions of Chief Operating Officer and Director at Gemini Space Station.
Tyler Meade, Chief Legal Officer
Tyler Meade is the Chief Legal Officer for Gemini Space Station.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Gemini Space Station (symbol: GEMI) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from its financial performance, valuation, and competitive landscape.
- Persistent Unprofitability and Slowing Revenue Growth: Gemini Space Station has consistently reported significant operating and net losses that frequently surpass its revenues. For example, in 2023, the company generated just over $98 million in revenues but posted a staggering $311 million operating loss, which, even with a modest crypto gain, led to a massive net loss. Losses continued into 2024 and the first half of 2025, with net losses accelerating in some periods despite a booming crypto market. Revenue growth has also shown a significant slowdown, declining in some recent periods. The company is currently unprofitable and is not projected to achieve profitability within the next three years.
- Overvaluation Relative to Fundamentals: Despite its persistent unprofitability and decelerating revenue growth, Gemini Space Station's stock is perceived as highly overvalued. The company reportedly trades at over 30 times sales and has a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 19.2x, which is significantly higher than the industry average. This valuation suggests aggressive future growth expectations that may be unrealistic given the company's current financial trajectory and challenges, creating a disconnect between its bullish market pricing and underlying poor fundamentals.
- Intense Competition and Limited Market Share: Gemini Space Station operates in a fiercely competitive cryptocurrency exchange market. It lags behind major competitors such as Coinbase, Binance, Robinhood, and Kraken in critical metrics, including trading volume, monthly active users, and platform assets. Despite positioning itself as a "compliance-first" exchange, this strategy has not translated into a dominant market share, and the company's unit economics are reportedly deteriorating, making it challenging to scale and achieve sustainable profitability.
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Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI) operates a global crypto platform offering a diverse range of products and services for both individual retail users and institutional investors. The addressable markets for their main offerings are substantial and are projected for significant growth in the coming years.
Addressable Markets for Gemini Space Station's Main Products and Services:
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Cryptocurrency Exchange (Global and U.S.)
- The global crypto exchange market was valued at approximately $24.75 billion in 2024, with projections to reach $71.94 billion by 2029 and $213.15 billion by 2034.
- In the U.S., the cryptocurrency exchange market size was estimated at $10.24 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $48.50 billion by 2032.
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Crypto Derivatives Exchange (Global)
- The global crypto derivatives market is valued at over $28 trillion annually in 2025. Monthly trading volume for crypto derivatives reached $1.33 trillion in September 2023.
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Staking Services (Global)
- The global staking market cap was an impressive $187.9 billion as of October 2023.
-
Over-the-Counter (OTC) Trading Desk
- Specific market size data for OTC trading desks within the crypto market is not readily available as a standalone figure and is typically encompassed within the broader cryptocurrency trading and exchange market.
-
Institutional-Grade Custody (Global)
- The global digital asset custody market was estimated at $683.38 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $4,378.84 billion by 2033.
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Stablecoin (Global)
- The global stablecoin market was valued at $282 billion in 2025. It is projected to reach $1.6 trillion under a base case scenario or up to $3.7 trillion under more optimistic conditions by 2030.
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U.S. Crypto Credit Card (Global and North America)
- The global crypto credit card market is expected to be valued at approximately $3.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to nearly $9 billion by 2034.
- North America is a dominant region in crypto credit card adoption, accounting for nearly 40% of the market share in 2023.
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Web3 Studio for NFTs (Global)
- The global non-fungible token (NFT) market size was estimated at $36.12 billion in 2023 and is slated to reach $217.07 billion by 2032. Another estimate places the global NFT market size at $26.9 billion in 2023, projected to reach $211.7 billion by 2030.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Gemini Space Station (GEMI) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) and Institutional Adoption: Gemini Space Station is focused on increasing its user base, with analysts highlighting the Gemini Credit Card as a significant customer acquisition tool that is scaling rapidly. This card is seen as a funnel for recurring users. The company also serves a growing number of institutional clients across over 60 countries, and increasing institutional adoption of digital assets is a key growth driver.
- Expansion into Prediction Markets: Gemini is actively pursuing entry into the prediction markets sector, having applied for regulatory approval to launch a designated contract market. This move is viewed by analysts as a promising new revenue opportunity within a rapidly growing market.
- Diversification of Product and Service Offerings: Beyond its core exchange, Gemini is expanding revenue streams through offerings such as staking, custody services, tokenized stocks, and its crypto rewards credit card. The company also has an NFT studio. The rapidly scaling credit card business specifically contributes to recurring revenue and acts as a customer acquisition tool.
- Strategic Partnerships: The company's partnership with Nasdaq is expected to open a high-margin institutional channel, contributing to diversified revenue and improved earnings quality.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Gemini Space Station (symbol: GEMI) over the Last 3-5 Years:
Share Issuance
- Gemini Space Station, Inc. completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 12, 2025, issuing an aggregate of 15,937,501 shares of Class A common stock at a public offering price of $28.00 per share.
- The IPO raised $425 million, with Gemini selling 300,565 shares directly as part of the offering and over-allotment.
- Proceeds from the IPO are intended for general corporate purposes, including product development, general and administrative matters, capital expenditures, and repayment of third-party debt.
Inbound Investments
- Nasdaq made a $50 million private investment in Gemini as part of its IPO, which also included cooperation on platforms and access to custody and staking services for Nasdaq's clients.
- In November 2021, Gemini Space Station, LLC, the parent company, raised a $400 million investment round, valuing the company at $7.1 billion.
Outbound Investments
- Gemini made a Seed Round investment in VaultCraft on June 18, 2025.
- In February 2023, Gemini committed up to $100 million in cash towards the restructuring and recovery agreement of Genesis Global Holdco.
Capital Expenditures
- In the trailing 12 months as of late 2025, capital expenditures were approximately $1.22 million.
- A portion of the IPO proceeds is earmarked for capital expenditures.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures aligns with developing and expanding the crypto platform, which includes services like derivatives exchange, staking, institutional-grade custody, stablecoin, a U.S. credit card, and a Web3 studio for NFTs.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| ARTICLES | ||
| What’s New With Gemini Space Station Stock? | 10/20/2025 | |
| Gemini Space Station Stock: Buy Or Fear? | 09/23/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to GEMI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -19.1% | -23.8% |
| 01302026 | PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -9.2% |
| 01232026 | FIS | Fidelity National Information Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.6% | -22.6% | -22.6% |
| 01022026 | MORN | Morningstar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -23.9% | -23.9% | -26.8% |
| 01022026 | ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.9% | -2.9% | -6.7% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,181 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,096 |
| FCF LTM | 2,426 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,047 |
| CFO LTM | 2,426 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,068 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 39.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 42.4 |
| P/S | 6.4 |
| P/EBIT | 28.6 |
| P/E | 36.3 |
| P/CFO | 19.0 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -27.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -30.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -43.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -35.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 67.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -27.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -38.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -49.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -52.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | -16.4% | -31.3% | -11.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -16.4% | -31.3% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -31.3% | -11.0% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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