Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $4.12 | Market Cap: $98.6 MilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $4.12Market Cap: $98.6 MilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -121% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 112% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% | |
| Key risksGEMI key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and slowing revenue growth, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -121% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -109%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -149% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 112% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 22% |
| Key risksGEMI key risks include [1] persistent unprofitability and slowing revenue growth, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Gemini Space Station reported a substantial full-year net loss of $585 million for 2025, with its Q4 2025 net loss deepening to $140.8 million, significantly missing analyst estimates of -$1.03 per share by $0.19. This financial underperformance highlights persistent unprofitability despite sequential revenue growth.
2. The company underwent extensive operational restructuring and experienced an executive exodus. This included a reduction of nearly one-third of its workforce, from approximately 640 employees at the start of 2026 to around 445 by March 1, 2026. Simultaneously, three senior executives—the Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Legal Officer—departed less than six months after the IPO.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -62.6% change in GEMI stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.00 | 4.11 | -62.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117 | 117 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | -62.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 32.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.0% | 33.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | -10.8% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.1% | 32.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEMI | ||
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 35.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 40.5% | 32.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEMI Return | - | - | - | - | -69% | -54% | -86% |
| Peers Return | -31% | -67% | 145% | 91% | 54% | -28% | 18% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEMI Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 39% | 36% | 58% | 56% | 58% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEMI Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -70% | -54% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -71% | -13% | -19% | -27% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: COIN, HOOD, PYPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
GEMI has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4,470 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to COIN, HOOD, PYPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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About Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
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- Space Tourism: Offers unique orbital excursions and short-term accommodations for private citizens aboard the space station.
- Microgravity Research Facilities: Provides advanced laboratory environments and support for scientific and commercial experiments in space.
- In-Orbit Manufacturing Services: Leases specialized modules and provides infrastructure for the production of unique materials and goods in microgravity.
- Satellite Servicing and Logistics: Operates as a strategic orbital hub for satellite repair, refueling, and deployment services.
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Tyler Winklevoss, Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Mr. Tyler Winklevoss co-founded Gemini in 2014 and has served as a director since August 2025. He is also the Co-Founder and Principal of WCF, a private investment firm he co-founded in 2012, which focuses on early-stage, technology startups. He graduated from Harvard University with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and received a Masters of Business Administration from the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford.
Cameron Winklevoss, Co-Founder, President and Director
Mr. Cameron Winklevoss co-founded Gemini in 2014 and has served as a director since August 2025. As of February 17, 2026, he has also assumed many of the responsibilities of the Chief Operating Officer. He is the Co-Founder and Principal of WCF, a private investment firm he co-founded in 2012, which invests in a variety of asset classes with a focus on early-stage, technology startups. He graduated from Harvard University with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and received a Masters of Business Administration from the Saïd Business School at the University of Oxford.
Danijela Stojanovic, Interim Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Stojanovic was appointed Interim Chief Financial Officer on February 17, 2026, and has served as the Company's Chief Accounting Officer since May 2025. Prior to joining Gemini, she held senior finance and accounting leadership roles at Blue Apron Holdings, Inc. from 2015 to 2024, including Senior Vice President, Finance and Accounting. During her tenure at Blue Apron, she led SEC reporting, technical accounting, equity compensation, and internal control frameworks, and supported the company's initial public offering in 2017 and its sale in November 2023. Ms. Stojanovic began her career with PricewaterhouseCoopers in Sweden.
Kate Freedman, Interim General Counsel
Ms. Freedman was appointed Interim General Counsel on February 17, 2026, and has served on Gemini's legal team since November 2024. Before joining Gemini, Ms. Freedman held legal roles at Stash Financial, Inc. from 2020 to 2024, most recently as Assistant General Counsel, where she led the Corporate and Commercial vertical and advised on corporate governance, equity management, and mergers and acquisitions. She began her legal career with Sullivan and Cromwell in New York and Hong Kong and previously worked in JPMorgan's investment banking group.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Gemini Space Station (GEMI), a cryptocurrency exchange and custodian, include:
- Lack of Profitability and Slowing Growth: Gemini Space Station has consistently reported significant net operating losses that have exceeded its revenues, and these losses have been accelerating in recent periods, even amidst a booming crypto market. Revenue growth has also shown signs of slowing down dramatically, and in some instances, declining, raising concerns about the company's ability to achieve sustainable profitability.
- Volatility of the Cryptocurrency Market: As a cryptocurrency exchange, Gemini Space Station's financial performance is highly susceptible to the inherent volatility and unpredictable nature of the broader cryptocurrency market. Fluctuations in the prices of digital assets directly impact trading volumes, the value of assets under custody, and the company's own crypto asset holdings, all of which can significantly affect its revenue and overall financial health.
- Regulatory Hurdles and Intense Competition: Despite positioning itself as a "compliance-first" platform, Gemini Space Station faces ongoing regulatory scrutiny, including an unresolved SEC lawsuit related to a past lending program. The evolving and often stringent regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency businesses poses continuous challenges and costs. Additionally, the company operates in a highly competitive market with established players like Coinbase, where it lags in key metrics such as trading volume and monthly active users.
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Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI) operates as a global cryptocurrency exchange and digital asset platform offering a diverse suite of products and services, including spot trading, custody services, staking, a USD-backed stablecoin (Gemini Dollar), an OTC trading desk, a crypto credit card, and an NFT marketplace (Nifty Gateway).
Addressable Markets for Gemini Space Station's Main Products and Services:
- Cryptocurrency Exchange (Spot and Derivatives Trading):
- The global cryptocurrency exchange platform market was valued at approximately $43.93 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $147.01 billion by 2029, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 27.32%. Another estimate places the global market at $24.75 billion in 2024, growing to $71.94 billion by 2029.
- In the U.S. alone, the cryptocurrency exchange market size reached $10.24 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to grow to $48.50 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 24.89%. North America accounts for approximately 45% of the global crypto exchange market share.
- Crypto Custody Services:
- The global digital asset custody market was estimated at $683.38 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $4,378.84 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 23.6%. Another report valued the global market at $1,047.02 billion in 2026, with a projection to reach $7,075.9 billion by 2035.
- North America holds the largest share of the global digital asset custody market, accounting for 39.5% in 2024.
- Crypto Staking Services:
- The global crypto staking platform market reached $6.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to attain a value of $32.5 billion by 2033, demonstrating a CAGR of 18.7%.
- North America contributes significantly to this market, accounting for approximately 38% of the global market size in 2024, which translates to around $2.36 billion.
- Stablecoins (Gemini Dollar - GUSD):
- The total global stablecoin market capitalization surpassed $313 billion as of March 2026. The U.S. dollar-denominated stablecoin market, which constitutes about 99% of the global stablecoin market, grew to $225 billion as of September 2025.
- The stablecoin market was valued at $282 billion in 2025, with projections by Citi indicating a potential growth to $1.9 trillion by 2030 in a base-case scenario.
- NFT Marketplace (Nifty Gateway):
- The global non-fungible token (NFT) market was estimated at $26.9 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $211.7 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 34.5%. Other estimates for the global NFT market include $60.82 billion in 2026 and a projection from $37.6 billion in 2024 to $820.6 billion by 2035.
- The U.S. NFT market was valued at $7.11 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 34.6% from 2024 to 2030. North America held a 31.64% share of the global non-fungible token market in 2023.
- Cryptocurrency Derivatives:
- The global crypto derivatives market reached a total trading volume of approximately $85.7 trillion in 2025. The monthly volume for crypto derivatives stood at $1.33 trillion as of September 2023.
- Crypto Credit Card and Retail Services:
- While specific market sizes for crypto credit cards are not readily available as a standalone market, these services fall under the broader cryptocurrency market and adoption trends. The U.S. cryptocurrency market size was $10.9 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach $30.2 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Gemini Space Station (symbol: GEMI) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Services Revenue, particularly the Gemini Credit Card and Staking Services: Gemini Space Station has identified higher services revenue, driven specifically by increased credit card revenue, as a primary contributor to its 2025 revenue growth. The Gemini Credit Card has demonstrated strong performance, exceeding 100,000 open accounts and over $350 million in quarterly transaction volume in Q3 2025, more than doubling quarter-over-quarter. Additionally, expanding contributions from staking services and custody products are expected to bolster the services line, providing a more stable revenue stream.
- Expansion of the Monthly Transacting User (MTU) Base: The company reported a 17% year-over-year increase in Monthly Transacting Users (MTUs) to approximately 600,000 as of December 31, 2025. Continued growth in its user base, encompassing individuals engaging in trading, custody, pooled staking, and credit card usage, is a fundamental driver for increased transaction volumes and wider adoption of its various services.
- New Feature Launches and Geographic Expansion: Gemini Space Station has historically attributed transaction revenue growth to new feature launches and geographic expansion. Ongoing development and introduction of new products or enhancements to its existing crypto platform, along with entering new markets, are anticipated to attract more users and increase engagement, thereby driving transaction and service-related revenues.
- Increased Crypto Trading Volumes and Transactional Throughput: As transaction fees remain the primary revenue driver, the company's financial performance is sensitive to overall crypto trading volumes and the throughput on its platform. An uptick in the broader cryptocurrency market activity or an increased share of trading volume handled by Gemini's platform would directly lead to higher transaction revenue.
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Share Issuance
- Gemini Space Station completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) in September 2025, pricing its Class A common stock at $28.00 per share.
- The company offered approximately 15.2 million shares in the IPO, including shares sold by Gemini itself and selling stockholders.
- The IPO raised approximately $425 million in proceeds.
Inbound Investments
- Nasdaq made a strategic investment of $50 million in Gemini through a private placement, which was concurrent with and closed immediately after Gemini's IPO.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the last 12 months were reported as -$2.29 million (as of June 30, 2025) or -$1 million (as of December 31, 2024).
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| ARTICLES | ||
| What’s New With Gemini Space Station Stock? | 10/20/2025 | |
| Gemini Space Station Stock: Buy Or Fear? | 09/23/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS |
Trade Ideas
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| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,181 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,096 |
| FCF LTM | 2,426 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,047 |
| CFO LTM | 2,426 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,068 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 39.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.9 |
| P/S | 6.0 |
| P/EBIT | 26.9 |
| P/E | 31.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -38.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -47.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -30.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -43.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -38.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -27.8% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | -16.4% | -31.3% | -11.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -16.4% | -31.3% | -11.0% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -16.4% | -31.3% | -11.0% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meade, Tyler Roberts | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 26.25 | 199,463 | 5,235,904 | 33,807,742 | Form |
| 2 | Beard, Marshall Edmund | Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 9152025 | 26.25 | 258,901 | 6,796,151 | 45,350,314 | Form |
| 3 | Jaitly, Sachin Chand | Tessera Venture Capital Fund II, LP | Sell | 3132026 | 8.92 | 39,708 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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