Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.81 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets
Gemini Space Station (GEMI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.81Market Cap: $-Sector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Capital Markets
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GEMI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the stock movement of Gemini Space Station (GEMI) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Initial Public Offering (IPO) and Debut Volatility
Gemini Space Station launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 12, 2025, with shares initially priced at $28 and surging as high as $40 on its Nasdaq debut before settling around $35, a 24% increase on the first day. The strong demand exceeded initial pricing expectations, but the stock quickly retreated from its peak in the days following its debut, signaling significant volatility.
2. Significant Financial Losses Reported
The company's financial disclosures revealed a substantial net loss of $282.5 million in the first half of 2025, a dramatic increase from the prior year, on revenues of $68.6 million. This deteriorating financial performance raised concerns among investors and contributed to the stock's post-IPO decline, as market sentiment shifted to prioritize profitability over growth narratives for crypto firms.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEMI Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | -19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEMI Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEMI Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX, STKE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
GEMI has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 338 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -83.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 515.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4470 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARTICLES | |||
| What’s New With Gemini Space Station Stock? | October 20th, 2025 | ||
| Gemini Space Station Stock: Buy Or Fear? | September 23rd, 2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GEMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gemini Space Station
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.76 |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| Rev LTM | 638 |
| Op Inc LTM | 30 |
| FCF LTM | -39 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -7 |
| CFO LTM | 20 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 789.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 174.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 167.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -15.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -202.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -70.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -93.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -93.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -93.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -68.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -108.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -106.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -166.1% |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |