GE Aerospace (GE)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $297.45 | Market Cap: $311.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
GE Aerospace (GE)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $297.45Market Cap: $311.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 8.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 19 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Hydrogen Economy. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x Key risksGE key risks include [1] consistent operational challenges from global supply chain disruptions that have previously impacted its production and revenue forecasts. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 8.9 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 19 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Hydrogen Economy. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 35x |
| Key risksGE key risks include [1] consistent operational challenges from global supply chain disruptions that have previously impacted its production and revenue forecasts. |
Qualitative Assessment
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GE Aerospace (GE) stock has lost about 5% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Q1 2026 financial results were largely offset by a cautious macroeconomic outlook. GE Aerospace reported robust first-quarter 2026 results, with total orders surging 87% to $23.0 billion and adjusted revenue increasing 29% to $11.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS of $1.86 against a $1.60 consensus. The company also affirmed it was trending towards the high end of its full-year guidance. However, despite these strong financials, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 6% on the earnings announcement day, as management issued a more cautious outlook. This caution stemmed from elevated oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and fuel supply constraints, leading to a revised expectation of flat to low-single-digit growth in flight departures for the year, down from an earlier mid-single-digit estimate, impacting airline capacity expansion plans. This suggested that strong company performance was being tempered by broader industry and economic headwinds.
2. Significant capital investments and workforce expansion signal long-term growth but represent ongoing expenditure. In March 2026, GE Aerospace announced plans for an additional $1 billion investment in its U.S. manufacturing sites and supplier base during the year, aimed at accelerating engine deliveries, increasing parts production, and strengthening defense output. This marks the company's second consecutive $1 billion U.S. investment and is part of over $2.5 billion invested since 2024, alongside plans to hire 5,000 U.S. workers. While these investments position the company for future growth and improved operational efficiency, they also entail substantial capital deployment, which can influence near-term investor sentiment by focusing on future benefits rather than immediate returns.
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1. Strong Q1 2026 financial results were largely offset by a cautious macroeconomic outlook. GE Aerospace reported robust first-quarter 2026 results, with total orders surging 87% to $23.0 billion and adjusted revenue increasing 29% to $11.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations for revenue and adjusted EPS of $1.86 against a $1.60 consensus. The company also affirmed it was trending towards the high end of its full-year guidance. However, despite these strong financials, the stock experienced a decline of approximately 6% on the earnings announcement day, as management issued a more cautious outlook. This caution stemmed from elevated oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and fuel supply constraints, leading to a revised expectation of flat to low-single-digit growth in flight departures for the year, down from an earlier mid-single-digit estimate, impacting airline capacity expansion plans. This suggested that strong company performance was being tempered by broader industry and economic headwinds.
2. Significant capital investments and workforce expansion signal long-term growth but represent ongoing expenditure. In March 2026, GE Aerospace announced plans for an additional $1 billion investment in its U.S. manufacturing sites and supplier base during the year, aimed at accelerating engine deliveries, increasing parts production, and strengthening defense output. This marks the company's second consecutive $1 billion U.S. investment and is part of over $2.5 billion invested since 2024, alongside plans to hire 5,000 U.S. workers. While these investments position the company for future growth and improved operational efficiency, they also entail substantial capital deployment, which can influence near-term investor sentiment by focusing on future benefits rather than immediate returns.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.9% change in GE stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 306.34 | 297.45 | -2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 45,854 | 48,312 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.0% | 17.9% | -5.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.0 | 36.1 | -2.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,052 | 1,046 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | -2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 60.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.7% | 81.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.5% change in GE stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -10.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 308.15 | 297.45 | -3.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,948 | 48,312 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.3% | 17.9% | -2.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.4 | 36.1 | -10.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,058 | 1,046 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | -3.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 53.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 13.1% | 73.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.4% change in GE stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 200.48 | 297.45 | 48.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 39,680 | 48,312 | 21.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.6% | 17.9% | 1.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 30.7 | 36.1 | 17.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,070 | 1,046 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 48.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.6% | 48.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 34.7% | 66.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 282.6% change in GE stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 282.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.75 | 297.45 | 282.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 30,950 | 48,312 | 56.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 29.0% | 17.9% | -38.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.4 | 36.1 | 282.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,089 | 1,046 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 282.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 282.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.4% | 58.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 82.3% | 67.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GE Return | 10% | -11% | 94% | 65% | 86% | -2% | 467% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 21% | 1% | 6% | 21% | 5% | 80% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GE Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 83% | 75% | 83% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GE Max Drawdown | -3% | -35% | 0% | -3% | 0% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -14% | -18% | -14% | -13% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RTX, HON, BA, LMT, NOC. See GE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 123 days |
In The Past
GE Aerospace's stock fell -20.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 181 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -51.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 106.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 387 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 419.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2409 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
GE Aerospace's stock fell -20.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About GE Aerospace (GE)
General Electric Company, now operating exclusively as GE Aerospace, is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and servicing jet engines, components, and integrated systems for commercial, military, business, and general aviation aircraft.
Following a multi-year restructuring process, the historic General Electric conglomerate successfully separated its legacy businesses into three independent, publicly traded companies. The medical imaging, patient monitoring, and digital solutions business was spun off as GE HealthCare in January 2023. Subsequently, the combined power, renewable energy, and digital grid business was spun off as GE Vernova in April 2024. The remaining core aviation business retained the historic 'GE' ticker symbol and continues to operate as the legal successor to the original 1892 corporation.
Today, GE Aerospace is entirely focused on the aviation sector. The company produces a wide portfolio of gas turbine engines, advanced engine components, electric power systems, and mechanical aircraft systems. A significant portion of its operations includes providing comprehensive aftermarket services, such as maintenance, repair, and overhaul, to optimize engine performance across their lifecycle. Additionally, GE Aerospace operates CFM International, a highly successful joint venture with French manufacturer Safran Aircraft Engines, which supplies a major share of the world's commercial aircraft engines. Led by CEO H. Lawrence Culp Jr., GE Aerospace is headquartered in Evendale, Ohio, and focuses heavily on next-generation propulsion technologies, sustainable aviation solutions, and additive manufacturing.
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- The Intel for airplanes.
- Boeing for jet engines.
- The Rolls-Royce of jet engines.
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- Jet Engines (Commercial & Military): Designs, manufactures, and services a wide portfolio of gas turbine jet engines for commercial, military, business, and general aviation aircraft.
- Engine Components & Integrated Systems: Produces advanced engine components and integrated systems that enhance propulsion, power, and functionality for various aircraft platforms.
- Aircraft Electric Power & Mechanical Systems: Develops and supplies electric power systems and mechanical aircraft systems for aircraft.
- Aftermarket Services: Provides comprehensive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services to optimize engine performance, reliability, and lifecycle across the aviation sector.
- CFM International Commercial Engines: Through its highly successful joint venture with Safran Aircraft Engines, supplies a major share of the world's commercial aircraft engines.
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GE Aerospace primarily sells its products and services to other companies within the aviation and defense sectors. Its major customers include:-
Aircraft Manufacturers:
- Boeing (symbol: BA): A leading global aerospace company, a major customer for GE Aerospace's commercial and military aircraft engines.
- Airbus: The other dominant commercial aircraft manufacturer globally, a significant customer for engines, particularly through the CFM International joint venture.
- Lockheed Martin (symbol: LMT): A premier global security and aerospace company, purchasing GE Aerospace engines for various military aircraft programs.
- Northrop Grumman (symbol: NOC): Another major American aerospace and defense technology company, a customer for advanced military jet engines.
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Commercial Airlines and Cargo Operators: These companies are major purchasers of new engines for their fleets and significant consumers of GE Aerospace's comprehensive aftermarket services (maintenance, repair, and overhaul).
- Delta Air Lines (symbol: DAL)
- United Airlines (symbol: UAL)
- American Airlines (symbol: AAL)
- FedEx (symbol: FDX)
- Government and Military Entities: Various governments and their respective military forces are direct or indirect customers for military aircraft engines and associated services.
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- Safran S.A. (SAF.PA)
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Here is the management team for GE Aerospace: H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. Chairman and CEOMr. Culp joined the GE Board of Directors in April 2018, was appointed CEO of GE in October 2018, and assumed additional duties as CEO of GE Aerospace in June 2022, becoming Chairman & CEO of GE Aerospace upon its launch as a public company in April 2024. He spearheaded GE's multi-year financial and operational transformation, resulting in over $100 billion in debt reduction. Prior to GE, Mr. Culp spent 25 years at Danaher Corporation, serving as President and CEO from 2001 to 2014, during which the company's revenues and market capitalization increased fivefold. He was also a Senior Lecturer at Harvard Business School and has served as a senior advisor at Bain Capital Private Equity. He is recognized as the first outsider to lead GE in its 126-year history. Rahul Ghai Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Ghai joined GE Aerospace in August 2022 and held the role of CFO for GE from September 2023 through the spin-off of GE Vernova in April 2024. Before joining GE Aerospace, he served as CFO of Otis Elevators starting July 2019, where he was instrumental in its spin from United Technologies Corporation. Previously, Mr. Ghai was CFO of Harris Corporation for four years, where he contributed to tripling the company's stock price by focusing on divesting non-strategic assets and investing in technology. His career includes executive-level finance roles at Aetna Insurance, Carrier Corporation, and UTC Fire and Security, where he demonstrated a strong track record of driving transformation and was involved in multiple M&A transactions. He began his career in the financial services industry in India. Mohamed Ali President and CEO, Commercial Engines & Services
Mr. Ali leads GE Aerospace's approximately $33 billion Commercial Engines & Services business, overseeing the entire lifecycle of its commercial engine operations, from engineering and supply chain to manufacturing and aftermarket services. He began his career with GE in 1997 as a research scientist. Amy Gowder President and CEO, Defense and Systems
Ms. Gowder leads the operations responsible for developing and manufacturing engines and systems for various military applications, including air combat, trainer, tanker, helicopter, and marine. She brings over 20 years of leadership experience within the aerospace and technology industry. Riccardo Procacci President and CEO, Propulsion and Additive Technologies
A 30-year veteran of General Electric, Mr. Procacci is responsible for four independent companies: Avio Aero, Unison, Dowty, and Colibrium Additive, which support both GE Aerospace and external customers globally. He was appointed CEO of Avio Aero in 2013 and later expanded his leadership to include GE Additive, Dowty Propellers, and Unison Industries.
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Here are the key risks to GE Aerospace:
-
Cyclicality and Volatility of the Aviation Industry: GE Aerospace's business is highly sensitive to the economic health of the global aviation sector. Factors such as global economic downturns, geopolitical events, fuel price volatility, and changes in air travel demand can significantly impact orders for new aircraft engines and the demand for aftermarket services like maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO).
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Reliance on Major Aircraft Manufacturers and Production Rates: A significant portion of GE Aerospace's engine sales are to a limited number of major aircraft manufacturers, such as Boeing and Airbus, often through joint ventures like CFM International. Production delays, quality control issues, or strategic shifts by these key customers can directly impact GE Aerospace's engine delivery schedules and revenue streams.
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High Costs and Technological Risks of Developing Next-Generation Propulsion Systems: GE Aerospace is heavily invested in developing advanced and sustainable aviation technologies, including next-generation propulsion systems. These programs require substantial research and development (R&D) investments over long cycles, carrying risks of cost overruns, technical challenges, and the potential failure to meet performance or market expectations.
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GE Aerospace operates within several substantial global addressable markets related to aviation propulsion and services.
- The global aircraft engine market, encompassing both commercial and military applications, was valued at approximately USD 161.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 248 billion by 2034.
- For commercial aircraft engines specifically, the market size is expected to grow from USD 95.56 billion in 2025 to USD 117.13 billion by 2031 globally.
- The global military aircraft engine market was valued at around USD 34.29 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 67.19 billion by 2032.
- The global aircraft Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) market, a key service offering for GE Aerospace, was valued at USD 91.35 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 678.58 billion by 2032.
- The global aerospace parts manufacturing market, which includes advanced engine components, was valued at USD 1019.73 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 1486.16 billion by 2034.
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GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- Robust Commercial Aftermarket Services Growth: A primary driver of revenue growth is the expanding commercial aftermarket services business. This is fueled by GE Aerospace's large installed base of jet engines, particularly the CFM LEAP engines which are entering a more intensive aftermarket cycle. Increased flight hours globally and a strong backlog of long-term service agreements translate into higher demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services and spare parts.
- Increased Deliveries of New Commercial Engines: While aftermarket services offer higher margins, the continuous increase in deliveries of new commercial engines, especially the LEAP family, is critical for expanding the installed base. This growth in new engine sales directly feeds the long-term pipeline for future, high-margin aftermarket service revenue, driven by ongoing demand for new aircraft and fleet modernization.
- Expansion in the Defense & Propulsion Technologies (DPT) Segment: The Defense & Propulsion Technologies segment is contributing significantly to revenue growth with increasing orders and deliveries. This growth is supported by strong defense budgets, new contract wins, and strategic investments in manufacturing capacity for defense platforms.
- Global Air Travel Recovery and Higher Fleet Utilization: The ongoing rebound in global air travel, with passenger traffic surpassing pre-pandemic levels, directly translates into more flight hours for the existing fleet. This heightened utilization of aircraft increases engine wear and tear, thereby boosting the demand for GE Aerospace's engine maintenance and repair services.
- Strategic Investments in Manufacturing Capacity and International Market Expansion: GE Aerospace is investing over $1 billion annually in its U.S. manufacturing sites and MRO capabilities to accelerate engine deliveries and strengthen its industrial base. The company is also targeting profitable growth in international markets, particularly in regions like India and the Middle East, where its engines demonstrate a competitive advantage in "hot-and-high" operating environments.
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Share Repurchases
- GE Aerospace has an ongoing multi-year share repurchase program with approximately $14.5 billion repurchased so far under a March 2024 authorization for 65.6 million shares.
- The company plans to increase capital returns from 2024 to 2026 to approximately $24 billion, which includes a $19 billion share buyback authorization, subject to Board approval.
- GE Aerospace accelerated repurchase activity in 2025 and expects to continue this trend in 2026.
Share Issuance
- In July 2021, GE executed a 1-for-8 reverse stock split, reducing the number of outstanding shares from approximately 8.8 billion to 1.1 billion.
Outbound Investments
- GE Aerospace has completed three acquisitions between 2022 and 2025.
- The most recent acquisition was Northstar Aerospace in June 2025, a manufacturer of components and assemblies for the aerospace industry.
Capital Expenditures
- GE Aerospace plans to invest $1 billion in its U.S. manufacturing sites and supplier base in 2026, marking its second consecutive year of such an investment. This investment aims to accelerate engine deliveries, ramp up durable parts production, and strengthen defense-related output.
- Since 2024, the company has committed over $2.5 billion to U.S. manufacturing and suppliers, with approximately $600 million directed towards sites producing defense engines over the last three years.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $988.4 million, peaking at $1.273 billion in 2025. The company also plans to invest more than €110 million in its European manufacturing sites in 2026 to expand production capacity and advanced manufacturing.
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| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 05312022 | GE | GE Aerospace | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.7% | 65.4% | -21.9% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 267.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 162.7 |
| Rev LTM | 61,709 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,870 |
| FCF LTM | 5,662 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,621 |
| CFO LTM | 7,368 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,839 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 162.7 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.4 |
| P/EBIT | 22.7 |
| P/E | 33.5 |
| P/CFO | 21.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 30.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Engines & Services | 26,881 | 23,855 | |||
| Defense & Propulsion Technologies | 9,478 | 8,961 | |||
| Corporate & Other | 2,343 | 2,532 | |||
| Aerospace | 26,050 | 20,274 | 20,597 | ||
| Corporate | 2,812 | 4,081 | 4,468 | ||
| Power | 16,262 | 16,558 | 17,237 | ||
| Renewable Energy | 12,977 | 15,559 | 15,523 | ||
| Healthcare | 17,724 | 18,008 | |||
| Total | 38,702 | 35,348 | 58,101 | 74,196 | 75,833 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $297.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 311.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $299.13 | $298.74 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.6% | -0.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.6% | 30.6% |
| Downside Capture | 210.55 | 108.26 |
| Upside Capture | 132.89 | 113.50 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 60.1% | 48.7% |
GE Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.03 | 1.72 | 1.52 | 1.39 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| Up Beta | 2.49 | 2.23 | 2.05 | 1.77 | 1.36 | 1.10 |
| Down Beta | 6.53 | 1.11 | 1.37 | 1.20 | 1.15 | 1.23 |
| Up Capture | 66% | 88% | 124% | 114% | 115% | 223% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 30 | 62 | 144 | 422 |
| Down Capture | 391% | 227% | 143% | 138% | 99% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 34 | 63 | 108 | 327 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 39.3% | 30.5% | 1.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.0% | 15.6% | 1.48 | 66.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 32.5% | 12.4% | 1.98 | 48.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.3% | 26.9% | 1.26 | 11.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.3% | 18.5% | 2.06 | -25.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 28.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 41.7% | -0.46 | 23.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 35.6% | 30.9% | 1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.7% | 17.4% | 0.57 | 69.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.7% | 17.1% | 0.63 | 59.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.4% | 0.47 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 23.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 8.5% | 36.2% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 67.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 56.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 0.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.9% | 0.39 | 21.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 44.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 13.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -5.6% | -6.3% | |
| 1/22/2026 | -7.4% | -8.2% | 7.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | 1.3% | 3.4% | -2.2% |
| 7/17/2025 | -2.2% | -1.1% | 1.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 6.1% | 12.6% | 31.9% |
| 1/23/2025 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| 10/22/2024 | -9.0% | -9.7% | -8.6% |
| 7/23/2024 | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 5.7% | 11.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.4% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 12.6% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -10.3% | -15.9% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Profit | 9.85 Bil | 10.05 Bil | 10.25 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.05 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 7.1 | 7.25 | 7.4 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.25 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 8.00 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.40 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.20 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 CES Revenue Growth | 15.0% | Affirmed | |||||
| 2026 CES Operating Profit | 9.60 Bil | 9.75 Bil | 9.90 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 DPT Revenue Growth | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | Affirmed | |||
| 2026 DPT Operating Profit | 1.55 Bil | 1.60 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.60 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Income | 9.85 Bil | 10.05 Bil | 10.25 Bil | 14.9% | Raised | Actual: 8.75 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 7.1 | 7.25 | 7.4 | 18.8% | Raised | Actual: 6.1 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 8.00 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.40 Bil | 13.9% | Raised | Actual: 7.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Commercial Engines & Services (CES) Operating Profit | 9.60 Bil | 9.75 Bil | 9.90 Bil | 14.0% | Raised | Actual: 8.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Defense & Propulsion Technologies (DPT) Operating Profit | 1.55 Bil | 1.60 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 28.0% | Raised | Actual: 1.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gowder, Amy L | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 305.73 | 4,000 | 1,222,920 | 5,055,246 | Form |
| 2 | Stokes, Russell | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 306.47 | 30,363 | 9,305,490 | 46,104,207 | Form |
| 3 | Giglietti, Robert M | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 305.51 | 3,035 | 927,235 | 3,233,255 | Form |
| 4 | Stokes, Russell | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 297.71 | 8,000 | 2,381,680 | 44,785,706 | Form |
| 5 | Ali, Mohamed | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 268.79 | 1,517 | 407,755 | 2,253,536 | Form |
GE Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
GE Aerospace earns a high conviction 'ACCUMULATE' rating. The company exhibits all the traits of a 'Quality Compounder' with a widening competitive moat and exceptional forward visibility from its massive backlog. The primary alpha driver—margin expansion from a recurring services model—is well underway and supported by strong leading indicators like order growth. While the valuation is at a premium, it is justified by the superior business model. The score reflects high confidence in the core thesis, warranting accumulation of the stock, particularly on any macro-induced pullbacks.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type B: 'Quality Compounder / Stalwart'GE Aerospace fits the 'Quality Compounder' archetype due to its dominant market position, a massive ~$210B services backlog ensuring earnings consistency, high switching costs creating a durable moat, and a focus on capital efficiency with FCF conversion guided over 100% of net income. Its value is driven by predictable, high-margin recurring revenue, not hyper-growth.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver of shareholder value will be the significant, structural margin expansion as the mix of revenue shifts increasingly towards the high-margin (~26.4%) commercial aftermarket. This is propelled by the maturation of the massive LEAP engine installed base entering its first highly profitable shop visit cycle and sustained pricing power in a supply-constrained environment.
Mechanism:
GE captures value through its 'razor-blade' model. Low-margin initial engine sales lock in airlines for decades of high-margin, IP-protected services and spare parts. As the fleet of new LEAP engines ages, they require mandatory, lucrative overhauls, driving a richer mix of services revenue and expanding overall company operating margins toward peer levels.
Supporting Evidence:
- Commercial services revenue grew an exceptional 39% YoY in Q1 2026, indicating robust underlying demand.
- The total backlog stands at over $210 billion, with ~$170 billion in the high-margin services segment, providing multi-year revenue and profit visibility.
- Commercial Engines & Services operating margin is already strong at 26.4%, with a clear path to expand towards peer Honeywell's target of ~29%.
- Recent major engine wins with American, United, and Delta for LEAP and GEnx engines continue to fuel the installed base for future services.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk to the thesis is the persistent, industry-wide shortage of complex components like forgings and castings. This acts as a hard ceiling on both new engine production and, more critically, the ability to fulfill high-margin aftermarket demand for spare parts, potentially delaying revenue recognition and disappointing margin expansion expectations.
Mechanism:
A worsening of the castings and forgings bottleneck would mean GE cannot source critical parts fast enough. This would lead to a lower-than-expected volume of new engine deliveries and, more damagingly, an inability to complete profitable shop visits and spare part sales, causing a miss on high-margin services revenue, which is the core profit engine.
Supporting Evidence:
- Management stated in Q1 2026 that demand for spare parts 'continues to exceed supply' and that parts 'delinquency' increased by ~70% since the end of 2024.
- The risk is described as the primary 'pacing item' for the entire industry, with executives expecting the challenged environment to persist through 2025 and 2026.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Services Revenue Growth YoY | >20% | This is the direct pulse of the high-margin profit engine. Sustained growth above 20% validates the Alpha Driver thesis. |
| Total Orders Growth YoY / Book-to-Bill Ratio | Book-to-Bill > 1.2x | This is the leading indicator for future revenue and confirms that demand is still vastly outpacing current output, refilling the backlog and providing long-term visibility. |
| Commercial Engines & Services Operating Margin | >26%, with upward trend | Measures the profitability of the core business. Any erosion in this metric would signal issues with pricing power or cost control, challenging the margin expansion thesis. |
Core Investment Debate
Services Growth vs. Supply Chain Ceiling
BULL VIEW
Massive services backlog ($170B) and strong LEAP fleet maturation will drive significant margin expansion towards 29%, justifying the premium valuation despite supply constraints.
CORE TENSION
Can GE's high-margin services growth and backlog execution overcome the structural forging/casting shortage that caps physical output and risks a high-multiple narrative break?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH
Q1 2026 Commercial Services revenue growth of +39% and Total Orders growth of +87% confirm the services-led expansion thesis is currently overpowering the known supply chain constraints.
BEAR VIEW
Persistent forging/casting shortage is a hard ceiling on fulfilling high-margin spare parts demand, risking a revenue and profit miss that breaks the 'quality' narrative.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Commercial Services Operating Margin. Watch for sequential decline from Q1's 26.4% or services revenue growth below mid-teens, which would confirm the 'execution failure' bear case. |
July 22-26, 2026 | Farnborough Airshow OEM Updates Watch: Formal 2026/2027 delivery target announcements from Boeing or Airbus. Any downward revision explicitly citing engine supply constraints would be a negative signal. |
Late October 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Total Orders Growth / Book-to-Bill Ratio. Must remain above 1.2x to prove demand continues to vastly outpace output after a blowout +87% YoY orders in Q1. |
Ongoing (Next 6 Months) | Key Supplier Earnings (Howmet, PCC) Watch: Negative revisions to output forecasts for castings or forgings, which would be a direct confirmation that the primary industry bottleneck is worsening. |
Ongoing (Next 6 Months) | Macro Data (CPI/Jobs) & Fed Policy Watch: 10-Year US Treasury yield crossing and holding above 4.5%, which would signal a 'risk-off' environment for high-multiple stocks. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Jan 2, 2026 | FAA Airworthiness Directive on GE90 Engines Details: The FAA issued a critical directive for GE90 engines due to powder metal contamination concerns, though the market's positive reaction suggested minimal perceived financial impact. | Rose significantly by 4.1% $307.58 -> $320.28 |
Jan 22, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite a history of beating conservatively set guidance ('sandbagging'), the stock reacted negatively. This release precedes the most recent Q1 report. | Plummeted 7.4% $318.03 -> $294.57 |
Feb 20, 2026 | Major Q1 Engine Orders Announced Details: Secured orders for over 650 commercial engines, including 300+ LEAP engines for American Airlines and 300 GEnx engines for United, reinforcing market share gains. | Rose significantly by 2.5% $334.25 -> $342.72 |
Mar 11, 2026 | FAA Airworthiness Directive on GEnx Engines Details: The FAA made effective an Airworthiness Directive for GEnx engines due to a forged ingot defect, highlighting ongoing regulatory oversight of manufacturing quality. | Changed Little (-0.4%) $326.52 -> $325.15 |
Apr 21, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Beat revenue/EPS but stock fell on operating margin narrowing to 21.8% from 23.8% and maintained FY guidance. Commercial services revenue grew an exceptional 39% YoY. | Plummeted 5.6% $303.60 -> $286.73 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock is trading with moderate volatility at 2.7x the S&P, and near-term fear is spiking. While fundamentals are strong and sentiment is Bullish, the premium valuation limits the margin of safety. Therefore, we cap exposure to Normal (4-6%).
Diversification Alternatives
CR
SECTORMore diversified industrial exposure beyond pure aerospace. Provides a different risk profile while still participating in the aerospace upcycle via its Aerospace & Electronics segment.
Core Thesis: A high-quality multi-industrial manufacturer with strong operating leverage from its 'Crane Business System' and a growing backlog in its high-margin aerospace and defense business.
ISSC
INDUSTRYA smaller, more nimble pure-play in the high-margin avionics retrofit market. Less exposed to large-scale engine production bottlenecks that affect GE.
Core Thesis: A niche systems integrator with a strong IP portfolio and regulatory moat, benefiting from aircraft modernization mandates and growing military spending.
How Is The Market Pricing GE?
GE Aerospace is a high-margin, durable industrial franchise whose value is driven by a massive ~$210 billion backlog of long-term, recurring services revenue tied to its industry-leading installed base of commercial and military aircraft engines.
Filter all news through the lens of services revenue growth and margin durability, which underpins the company's long-term value.
What will confirm the thesis
Commercial services revenue growth >+20% YoY; book-to-bill ratio >1.0; new engine wins with major airlines (e.g., United, American, Delta); long-term service agreement renewals (e.g., Ryanair).
What will damage the thesis
Sustained downturn in global air travel leading to aircraft parking/retirements (impacting services demand); systemic technical issues with a major engine platform (e.g., LEAP, GEnx); significant market share loss to Pratt & Whitney or Rolls-Royce.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Quarterly fluctuations in new engine delivery margins (expected to be low/negative); minor adjustments to air traffic departure outlook due to short-term geopolitical events; single-quarter supply chain disruptions impacting spare parts delivery.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing appreciation of GE Aerospace as a pure-play leader with a business model where lower-margin initial engine sales lock in decades of high-margin, recurring services revenue. This is driven by a strong post-pandemic recovery in flight hours, leading to robust demand for aftermarket services and spare parts, which grew 39% in Q1 2026.
What GE Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q1 2026 Earnings Release, Apr 21 2026
Commercial Engines & Services
$35.7B TTM (77% of Total) · 26% MarginWhat It Is
LEAP-1A/1B for Airbus A320neo & Boeing 737MAX; GEnx for Boeing 787 & 747; GE9X for Boeing 777X; legacy engines including CFM56 and GE90.
Who Pays & How
Airlines (e.g., American, United, Delta, Ryanair) and airframers (Boeing, Airbus) pay for engines and, more importantly, enter multi-decade service agreements. The razor-blade model creates extreme lock-in, as switching engine suppliers on a fleet costs billions and is technically infeasible once an aircraft is certified.
Per-unit sale for engines, followed by long-term 'OnPoint' service agreements based on flight hours and shop visits for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO).
Competition
Pratt & Whitney (RTX) - PW1000G 'Geared Turbofan' (GTF)
The GTF offered initial fuel efficiency gains, but has been plagued by significant durability and maintenance issues, requiring extensive shop visits and grounding aircraft, damaging its reputation.
A massive installed base of ~44,000 commercial engines generates predictable, high-margin services revenue. The CFM LEAP engine, a joint venture with Safran, has ~70-80% market share on the world's most popular narrowbody aircraft (A320neo/737MAX).
Defense & Propulsion Technologies
$12.9B TTM (23% of Total) · 12% MarginWhat It Is
F110 engines for F-15/F-16 fighters; T700 turboshaft engines for Black Hawk and Apache helicopters; T408 for CH-53K King Stallion helicopter.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments pay for engines and long-term service contracts to ensure military fleet readiness and performance. Contracts are typically long-cycle and provide stable, non-cyclical revenue.
Long-term contracts for production and sustainment (service/spares).
Competition
Pratt & Whitney (RTX) - F135 engine for F-35 fighter
Pratt & Whitney is the sole engine provider for the F-35, the largest fighter program globally, giving it a significant and long-term production and sustainment base.
Holds an entrenched, incumbency position on many of the most critical and long-lasting U.S. and international military aircraft platforms (F-15, F-16, Black Hawk, Apache).
GE Evolution: Price Return by Era
1917–2000 · Conglomerate Foundation
Aviation Pioneer within an Industrial Giant
GE entered the aviation business by developing the first U.S. jet engine in the 1940s. For decades, it operated as a key division within the massive General Electric conglomerate, developing iconic military and commercial engines like the J79, CF6, and the highly successful CFM56 (in partnership with Safran), which established its massive installed base.
2001–2021 · Conglomerate Crisis & Deconstruction
The Cash Engine Propping Up a Faltering Empire Significant underperformance vs S&P 500 for parent GE
During a period of immense strain for the parent company, particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, the highly profitable and cash-generative GE Aviation division became a critical source of stability. While the broader GE struggled with legacy assets in finance (GE Capital) and power, the aerospace business continued to grow its services backlog, driven by the success of the GEnx and the launch of the next-generation LEAP engine.
2022–Present · Pure-Play Spin-Off
Unleashed as a Focused Aerospace Leader Significant outperformance since spin-off announcement
Following the spin-offs of GE HealthCare and GE Vernova, GE Aerospace emerged as a standalone public company in April 2024. This era is defined by a singular focus on its 'razor-blade' business model: leveraging its massive installed base to drive highly profitable, recurring services revenue. Strong post-pandemic air travel recovery has accelerated services growth, driving record orders and backlog.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Significantly underperforming and deteriorating. Potential evidence of capital being actively rotating away. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
-3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-5 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Broken In Short Term · -
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2
Momentum
Deteriorating
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3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Underperformance
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4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Distribution
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5
Volatility
Expanded
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6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Falling
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7
Earnings Reaction History
Emerging Resilience
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8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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