GE Aerospace (GE)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $314.49 | Market Cap: $330.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
GE Aerospace (GE)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $314.49Market Cap: $330.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 20 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Hydrogen Economy. Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x Key risksGE key risks include [1] consistent operational challenges from global supply chain disruptions that have previously impacted its production and revenue forecasts. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 8.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.3 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 20 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Hydrogen Economy. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 30x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 39x |
| Key risksGE key risks include [1] consistent operational challenges from global supply chain disruptions that have previously impacted its production and revenue forecasts. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Financial Performance and Optimistic Guidance Balanced by Valuation Concerns. GE Aerospace reported robust fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, surpassing consensus estimates with an EPS of $1.57 and revenue of $11.90 billion. The company also issued an upbeat 2026 guidance, projecting an adjusted EPS of $7.10-$7.40, exceeding prior expectations, and forecasting operating profit between $9.85 billion and $10.25 billion with free cash flow of $8.0 billion to $8.4 billion. This positive outlook was largely driven by robust demand for commercial engines and high-margin aftermarket services. However, the stock's forward P/E ratio of 36.28x indicated a stretched valuation compared to industry and peer averages, potentially tempering further significant upward movement despite strong fundamentals.
2. Significant Backlog and Strategic Investments Countered by Broader Industry Headwinds. The company maintains a substantial and growing backlog of approximately $190 billion, providing long-term revenue visibility. Furthermore, GE Aerospace announced plans to invest an additional $1 billion in its U.S. manufacturing sites and supplier base during 2026 to accelerate engine deliveries and bolster defense production, including over $275 million dedicated to defense engine and component production. Despite these positive company-specific developments, the broader aerospace and defense industry faced persistent supply chain constraints, material shortages, and structural labor tightness, impacting the efficient conversion of backlogs into delivered output.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.1% change in GE stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 307.58 | 313.93 | 2.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,948 | 45,854 | 4.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.3% | 19.0% | 3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.4 | 37.9 | -6.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,058 | 1,052 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.1% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 2.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 54.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.4% | 78.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.6% change in GE stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 300.04 | 313.93 | 4.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41,609 | 45,854 | 10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.6% | 19.0% | 1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.1 | 37.9 | -7.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,063 | 1,052 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 4.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 53.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.4% | 73.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 57.7% change in GE stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 199.10 | 313.93 | 57.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 38,701 | 45,854 | 18.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.9% | 19.0% | 12.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.7 | 37.9 | 19.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,043 | 1,052 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 57.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 57.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 65.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.0% | 74.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 318.0% change in GE stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 1546.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 75.10 | 313.93 | 318.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,139 | 45,854 | 57.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.2% | 19.0% | 1546.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 244.3 | 37.9 | -84.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,093 | 1,052 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 318.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GE | 318.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 58.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 76.4% | 67.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GE Return | 10% | -11% | 94% | 65% | 86% | 3% | 500% |
| Peers Return | 10% | 21% | 1% | 6% | 21% | 16% | 100% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GE Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 83% | 75% | 83% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GE Max Drawdown | -3% | -35% | 0% | -3% | 0% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -14% | -18% | -14% | -13% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RTX, HON, BA, LMT, NOC. See GE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 292 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,959 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -84.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 532.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,864 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to RTX, HON, BA, LMT, NOC
In The Past
GE Aerospace's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -46.8% loss requires a 87.9% gain to breakeven.
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About GE Aerospace (GE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe GE Aerospace:
- Intel for airplane engines
- NVIDIA for aerospace propulsion
- Cummins for aircraft
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Power Generation Turbines: Offers gas and steam turbines for various power generation applications.
- Power Plant Balance of Plant: Provides comprehensive solutions for power plant infrastructure and upgrades.
- Power Generation Software: Develops software for data-leveraging and optimization in power generation.
- Wind Energy Systems: Delivers onshore and offshore wind turbines, blades, and associated digital services.
- Grid Infrastructure Solutions: Supplies solutions for electricity transmission, distribution, and grid management.
- Hydro and Energy Storage: Offers solutions for hydroelectric power, energy storage, and hybrid renewable systems.
- Aircraft Engines & Systems: Designs and produces commercial and military aircraft engines, components, and systems.
- Aviation Aftermarket Services: Provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for aircraft engines and systems.
- Medical Imaging & Diagnostics: Offers technologies for medical imaging, patient monitoring, and diagnostic solutions.
- Digital Health Solutions: Develops digital tools for healthcare, patient monitoring, and drug discovery.
- Financial Services: Provides various financial solutions to its customers.
- Insurance Management: Manages run-off life and health insurance and reinsurance operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of GE Aerospace (GE)
GE Aerospace (symbol: GE) primarily sells its products and services to other companies and government entities. Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Commercial Aircraft Manufacturers: These companies purchase engines and components for integration into their aircraft, which are then sold to airlines. Key customers include:
- Boeing (BA)
- Airbus (EADSY)
- Embraer (ERJ)
- Commercial Airlines: While airlines purchase aircraft from manufacturers, they are direct and significant customers of GE Aerospace for aftermarket services, including maintenance, repair, overhaul (MRO), and spare parts for their fleets powered by GE engines. Examples of major airline customers include:
- Delta Air Lines (DAL)
- American Airlines Group (AAL)
- United Airlines Holdings (UAL)
- Southwest Airlines (LUV)
- Military Organizations / Governments: GE Aerospace supplies engines and and components for military aircraft directly to governments and defense departments worldwide. While these are not public companies with stock symbols, they represent a significant customer base for GE's defense offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Safran S. A. (SAF.PA)
- Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)
- Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)
- Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
- Raytheon Technologies (RTX)
- Rheinmetall AG (RHM.DE)
AI Analysis | Feedback
H. Lawrence Culp, Jr. Chairman and Chief Executive OfficerH. Lawrence Culp, Jr. is the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of GE Aerospace. He joined the GE Board of Directors in April 2018 and was appointed CEO of GE in October 2018. He assumed additional duties as CEO of GE Aerospace in June 2022 and became Chairman & CEO when it launched as a public company in April 2024. Culp led GE's multi-year financial and operational transformation, during which the company strengthened its balance sheet and reduced debt by over $100 billion. Prior to joining GE, he spent 25 years at Danaher Corporation, serving as President and CEO from 2001 to 2014, where he oversaw a fivefold increase in both revenues and market capitalization. He also played a role in the transformation of GE's portfolio, including the sale of GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) and other business units, and the spin-off and subsequent merger of GE Transportation with Wabtec.
Rahul Ghai Senior Vice President and Chief Financial OfficerRahul Ghai is the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of GE Aerospace. He joined GE Aerospace in August 2022 and also served as CFO of GE from September 2023 through the spin of GE Vernova in April 2024. Before joining GE Aerospace, Ghai was CFO of Otis Elevators starting in July 2019, where he was instrumental in assisting Otis's spin-off from United Technologies. Earlier, he served as Senior Vice President and CFO of Harris Corporation for four years, during which the company's stock price tripled, and he focused on divesting non-strategic assets and investing in technology. His career also includes executive-level finance roles at Aetna Insurance, Carrier Corporation, and UTC Fire and Security, and he was involved in several M&A transactions.
Mohamed Ali President and CEO, Commercial Engines & ServicesMohamed Ali is the President and CEO of Commercial Engines & Services for GE Aerospace. In this role, he leads the company's approximately $33 billion Commercial Engines & Services business and the teams responsible for its industry-leading portfolio of engines and services.
Amy Gowder President and CEO, Defense and SystemsAmy Gowder is the President and CEO of Defense and Systems for GE Aerospace. She leads an operation focused on developing and manufacturing engines and systems for military air combat, trainer, tanker, helicopter, and marine applications, serving over 300 U.S. and international military customers. She possesses more than 20 years of leadership experience within the aerospace and technology industry.
Christian Meisner Chief Human Resources OfficerChristian Meisner is the Chief Human Resources Officer (CHRO) for GE Aerospace, a position he assumed in October 2023. He is responsible for leading the global HR organization, encompassing Talent Management, Leadership Development and Learning, Total Rewards, and Labor and Employee Relations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to GE Aerospace's business operations are primarily centered around external market dynamics and operational challenges within the aviation industry.
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Supply Chain Disruptions
GE Aerospace faces ongoing and significant challenges stemming from disruptions in its global supply chain. These issues include persistent bottlenecks in the availability of raw materials (such as high-end castings, forgings, and specific materials like yttrium), as well as problems with supplier delivery performance and labor shortages. These disruptions directly impact the company's ability to meet delivery targets for engines, including the LEAP and GE9X, leading to potential delays in aircraft deliveries for its customers and increased operational costs. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) and consulting firm Oliver Wyman projected that supply chain issues could cost global airlines over $11 billion in 2025 due to delays in aircraft and parts production.
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Reliance on Airframer Production and Industry Cyclicality
GE Aerospace's growth and financial performance are highly dependent on the production rates and overall health of major airframe manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus. Production and quality control issues at these primary customers can directly constrain GE Aerospace's ability to deliver its engines, irrespective of its own production capabilities. Furthermore, the aerospace industry is inherently cyclical, making GE Aerospace vulnerable to broader macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Economic downturns, recessions, inflation, and global geopolitical uncertainties (such as trade tensions or conflicts) can adversely affect demand for commercial air travel and defense budgets, thereby impacting the demand for GE Aerospace's products and services, as well as its revenue and profitability.
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Intense Competition and Margin Pressure
The aerospace engine market is characterized by intense competition from major players such as Pratt & Whitney (a division of RTX Corporation) and Rolls-Royce Holdings plc. GE Aerospace must continuously innovate and enhance its offerings to maintain its competitive position, as any technological or service setback could lead to significant market share loss. Additionally, the company faces potential margin compression due to an unfavorable sales mix, where high-margin aftermarket services may be offset by the delivery of new, lower-margin engines. Rising costs, including higher costs of sales, operating expenses, and increased research and development investments, also contribute to pressure on profit margins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerated global transition towards electrified, hybrid, and hydrogen-powered propulsion systems in aviation represents a clear emerging threat to GE Aerospace's core business of manufacturing traditional fossil fuel-burning jet engines. This shift, driven by increasing environmental regulations and technological advancements, could fundamentally alter the demand landscape for conventional turbofan and turboprop engines, potentially favoring companies or startups leading in these new propulsion technologies. While GE Aerospace is likely investing in future propulsion solutions, a rapid acceleration in this transition could disrupt its established market dominance and require significant strategic and technological adaptation.
AI Analysis | Feedback
GE Aerospace operates in several significant addressable markets globally. The key markets for their main products and services include commercial aircraft engines, military aircraft engines, aircraft electrical systems, aircraft mechanical power transmission systems, and aftermarket services (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul).- Commercial Aircraft Engines: The global commercial aircraft engines market was valued at approximately USD 95.56 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 117.13 billion by 2031.
- Military Aircraft Engines: The global military aircraft engine market size is valued at around USD 34.29 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 67.19 billion by 2032.
- Aircraft Electrical Systems: The global aircraft electrical systems market size was valued at USD 23.55 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 37.82 billion by 2032.
- Aircraft Mechanical Power Transmission Systems: The global aircraft mechanical power transmission system market was valued at USD 1.9 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.72% through 2029.
- Aftermarket Services (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul - MRO): The global aircraft MRO market size is estimated at USD 120.3 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 172.73 billion by 2035.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for GE Aerospace (symbol: GE) over the next 2-3 years:
- Strong Commercial Services and Aftermarket Growth: GE Aerospace anticipates robust growth from its commercial services segment, which accounts for a significant portion of its revenue. This growth is driven by increasing global air traffic, leading to higher aircraft utilization and, consequently, greater demand for maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services. The company expects commercial services revenue to grow mid-teens in 2026 and projects commercial engine services revenues to double to $20 billion by 2030 from $10 billion in 2024. This includes increased internal shop visits, higher workscopes, and strong spare parts sales, supported by an expanding installed base of engines like LEAP and GEnx and the aging of existing fleets.
- Increased Commercial Engine Deliveries: The company is poised for growth through increased deliveries of new commercial engines, particularly the highly sought-after CFM LEAP engine. GE Aerospace aims to boost LEAP engine production by 15-20% in 2025, with a longer-term goal of 2,500 units annually by 2028. This acceleration in equipment volume is supported by ongoing supply chain improvements and a substantial backlog, meeting pent-up demand from aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus.
- Growth in Defense & Propulsion Technologies: The Defense & Propulsion Technologies (DPT) segment is a steady contributor to revenue growth. This segment saw full-year orders rise 19% and revenue increase 11% in 2025, with defense jet engine deliveries growing 30% year-on-year. GE Aerospace expects mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth for DPT in 2026, bolstered by a stable backlog and new contract wins for military engines and related systems.
- Global Air Traffic Expansion: Favorable industry conditions, including the projected global air passenger traffic growth of 4.9% in 2026, will continue to fuel demand across GE Aerospace's businesses. This expansion drives increased flight hours, which in turn boosts the need for engine maintenance and the eventual demand for new aircraft, thereby benefiting both the commercial services and engine delivery segments.
- Strategic Investments and Operational Enhancements: GE Aerospace is investing nearly $1 billion in its U.S. manufacturing facilities and supply chain during 2025 to enhance production capacity and efficiency. The company's "FLIGHT DECK" operating model focuses on improving supply chain reliability, accelerating output, and reducing waste in its MRO network, which supports increased delivery volumes and improved turnaround times, ultimately contributing to revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- GE Aerospace authorized a $15 billion share repurchase program in March 2024, which was set to commence after the GE Vernova spin-off.
- In December 2025, the Board approved a new authorization of up to $20 billion for common share repurchases, effective after the first quarter of 2026.
- GE (now GE Aerospace) spent $1.233 billion on share buybacks in 2023 and $5.827 billion in 2024, with plans to buy back $7 billion in 2025.
Share Issuance
- In January 2023, General Electric completed the spin-off of GE HealthCare, distributing one GE HealthCare share for every three GE shares held by investors.
- On April 2, 2024, General Electric spun off GE Vernova, distributing one share of GE Vernova for every four shares of GE owned, with the remaining company becoming GE Aerospace (trading as GE).
Outbound Investments
- In September 2021, GE's healthcare division acquired BK Medical for $1.45 billion, a company specializing in advanced surgical visualization using ultrasound technology.
- GE monetized approximately $9 billion in proceeds in 2023 by exiting its equity stakes in Baker Hughes and AerCap, and a portion of its GE HealthCare shares.
Capital Expenditures
- GE Aerospace's capital expenditures have increased from $662 million in 2022 to $1.273 billion in 2025.
- The company announced plans to invest nearly $1 billion in its U.S. manufacturing facilities and supply chain in 2025, with a focus on strengthening manufacturing, increasing the use of innovative parts, military engine production, and LEAP engine capacity.
- GE Aerospace plans to invest another $1 billion in its U.S. manufacturing sites and supplier network in 2026 to accelerate engine deliveries, expand production of key components, and strengthen defense manufacturing capacity.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 05312022 | GE | GE Aerospace | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 9.7% | 65.4% | -21.9% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 273.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 159.8 |
| Rev LTM | 60,451 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,149 |
| FCF LTM | 6,165 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,086 |
| CFO LTM | 7,472 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,047 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 159.8 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 23.4 |
| P/E | 34.6 |
| P/CFO | 24.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 38.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -27.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Engines & Services | 23,855 | ||||
| Defense & Propulsion Technologies | 8,961 | ||||
| Corporate & Other | 2,532 | ||||
| Aerospace | 26,050 | 20,274 | 20,597 | 32,117 | |
| Corporate | 2,812 | 4,081 | 4,468 | 1,920 | |
| Power | 16,262 | 16,558 | 17,237 | 18,267 | |
| Renewable Energy | 12,977 | 15,559 | 15,523 | 15,198 | |
| Healthcare | 17,724 | 18,008 | 19,942 | ||
| Capital | 7,770 | ||||
| Total | 35,348 | 58,101 | 74,196 | 75,833 | 95,214 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $313.93 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 330.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -9.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $312.37 | $295.41 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 6.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.2% | 29.1% |
| Downside Capture | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| Upside Capture | 114.34 | 120.41 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 46.2% | 47.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.75 | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.30 | 1.12 | 1.13 |
| Up Beta | 0.83 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Down Beta | 1.32 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.27 | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| Up Capture | 156% | 199% | 164% | 141% | 126% | 239% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 18 | 31 | 65 | 145 | 423 |
| Down Capture | 219% | 133% | 143% | 123% | 95% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 24 | 32 | 61 | 107 | 324 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 74.1% | 29.0% | 1.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 37.8% | 15.3% | 1.89 | 66.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 51.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | -5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 26.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 28.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 36.6% | 30.5% | 1.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.1% | 17.3% | 0.60 | 69.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 60.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 16.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 39.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 23.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE | 9.0% | 36.0% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 19.9% | 0.62 | 67.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 56.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | -0.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 23.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 44.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/22/2026 | -7.4% | -8.2% | 7.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | 1.3% | 3.4% | -2.2% |
| 7/17/2025 | -2.2% | -1.1% | 1.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 6.1% | 12.6% | 31.9% |
| 1/23/2025 | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% |
| 10/22/2024 | -9.0% | -9.7% | -8.6% |
| 7/23/2024 | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | 8.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 5.7% | 11.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.7% | -4.4% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 12.6% | 47.9% |
| Max Negative | -10.3% | -15.9% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Income | 9.85 Bil | 10.05 Bil | 10.25 Bil | 14.9% | Raised | Actual: 8.75 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 7.1 | 7.25 | 7.4 | 18.8% | Raised | Actual: 6.1 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 8.00 Bil | 8.20 Bil | 8.40 Bil | 13.9% | Raised | Actual: 7.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Commercial Engines & Services (CES) Operating Profit | 9.60 Bil | 9.75 Bil | 9.90 Bil | 14.0% | Raised | Actual: 8.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Defense & Propulsion Technologies (DPT) Operating Profit | 1.55 Bil | 1.60 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 28.0% | Raised | Actual: 1.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted Revenue Growth | 17.5% | 16.7% | Raised | Guidance: 15.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Operating Profit | 8.65 Bil | 8.75 Bil | 8.85 Bil | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 8.35 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EPS | 6 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 7.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.7 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 7.10 Bil | 7.20 Bil | 7.30 Bil | 7.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.70 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 CES Revenue Growth | 22.5% | Higher New | |||||
| 2025 CES Operating Profit | 8.45 Bil | 8.55 Bil | 8.65 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2025 DPT Revenue Growth | 8.5% | Higher New | |||||
| 2025 DPT Operating Profit | 1.20 Bil | 1.25 Bil | 1.30 Bil | Higher New | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stokes, Russell | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11202025 | 297.71 | 8,000 | 2,381,680 | 44,785,706 | Form |
| 2 | Ali, Mohamed | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 268.79 | 1,517 | 407,755 | 2,253,536 | Form |
| 3 | Procacci, Riccardo | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5142025 | 222.38 | 6,111 | 1,358,949 | 3,722,377 | Form |
| 4 | Ali, Mohamed | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 200.67 | 1,602 | 321,473 | 1,766,899 | Form |
| 5 | Ali, Mohamed | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5012025 | 199.53 | 421 | 84,002 | 1,672,860 | Form |
GE Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Despite the underlying business being Tier 1 in quality with a widening moat and strong order book, the stock's current valuation creates a highly unfavorable risk/reward profile. The probability-adjusted skew of 0.36x indicates that the potential downside from a valuation multiple correction significantly outweighs the limited upside from beating already high expectations. The market has priced in perfection, leaving no margin for error.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Type C: 'Cyclical / Commodity'The business is classified as 'Industrial / Cyclical' with a revenue archetype of 'The 'Project' Hunter (Cyclical/Capex)'. Its performance is tied to long-cycle demand for aircraft, making cycle timing and supply/demand balance critical analytical factors.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on GE's ability to monetize its massive and growing installed base of commercial engines, particularly the CFM LEAP. As these newer engines mature, they will enter highly profitable maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) cycles under long-term service agreements (LTSAs), driving a favorable mix shift towards high-margin, recurring services revenue.
- Commercial Engines & Services (CES) revenue grew 24% in 2025, with the highly profitable services component growing even faster at 26%.
- A massive backlog of approximately $190 billion provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility, de-risking the near-term outlook.
- The installed base includes over 45,000 commercial engines, providing a large and resilient foundation for recurring service revenue.
- The book-to-bill ratio was a very strong 2.3x in the latest quarter, indicating that demand and backlog are still accelerating.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary friction is management's own guidance for 'low double-digit' revenue growth in FY2026, a material deceleration from the 18% growth achieved in FY2025. This slowdown, combined with a premium forward P/E multiple near historical highs, creates significant risk of multiple compression if execution falters or the market rotates away from premium-valued industrial stocks.
- Management guided for 'low double-digit' revenue growth for FY2026, a slowdown from 18% in FY2025.
- The current Forward P/E of ~43x is significantly above the aerospace & defense industry's average of ~33x.
- The CES segment experienced a 420 basis point operating profit margin contraction in Q4 2025 due to a less profitable sales mix.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Orders Growth | Sustained double-digit YoY growth | This is the primary leading indicator of future revenue and market share momentum. A deceleration below double-digits would challenge the growth narrative. |
| Commercial Services Revenue Growth | Growth >20% YoY | This is the core profit engine of the company. Growth below this level would indicate a material slowdown in the high-margin portion of the business, threatening EPS targets. |
| CES Operating Margin | Sequential stabilization and improvement from Q4 2025 levels | This metric is the source of the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. Failure to reverse the recent margin compression would signal that profitability challenges are more structural than temporary. |
Backlog Visibility vs. Near-Term Execution Headwinds
BULL VIEW
The record backlog and accelerating high-margin services revenue (+31% YoY) provide exceptional multi-year earnings visibility that outweighs any temporary operational headwinds.
CORE TENSION
Can GE's massive ~$190B backlog and services strength overcome guided growth deceleration, margin pressure, and mounting operational risks (supply chain, engine durability) in the near term?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management's own FY2026 guidance for 'low double-digit' revenue growth is a material deceleration from the 18% GAAP growth in FY2025, giving the bear case the current edge.
BEAR VIEW
FY26 guidance for 'low double-digit' growth is a major deceleration from 18% in FY25. This, plus CES margin contraction and new regulatory scrutiny, signals a negative inflection.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Update Watch: Commentary on FY26 guidance. Any change to 'low double-digit' growth, and updates on CES segment operating margin trends. |
Next 30 Days (Effective Feb 26, 2026) | LEAP Engine Airworthiness Directive Fallout Watch: Announcements from major airlines (e.g., Southwest, Ryanair, IndiGo) regarding fleet inspections, groundings, or changes to delivery schedules citing the AD. |
Q1/Q2 2026 Earnings Calls | Customer Production Updates (Boeing/Airbus) Watch: Boeing or Airbus lowering full-year 2026 delivery guidance and explicitly naming GE engine/component shortages as a primary constraint. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 26, 2025 | Major Engine Order Announcement Details: A significant order for engines from a major airline was announced, reinforcing the strength of the commercial aerospace upcycle and boosting investor confidence. | Rose significantly by 2.7% $265.98 -> $273.29 |
Oct 22, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: GE reported strong Q3 results, beating analyst estimates and raising full-year guidance, driven by robust demand in both commercial and defense segments. Stock fell on profit-taking. | Fell notably by -2.8% $306.27 -> $297.54 |
Dec 12, 2025 | New FAA Scrutiny on LEAP Engines Details: The FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive for LEAP engines due to reports of cracked HPT blades. Despite the negative news, the stock rose, suggesting market confidence in a limited impact. | Rose significantly by 4.0% $288.09 -> $299.46 |
Jan 6, 2026 | Stock Reached 52-Week High Details: Shares hit a 52-week high, capping a strong multi-month rally driven by continued strength in air travel demand and a large order book. | Muted (1.0%) $324.32 -> $327.54 |
Jan 15, 2026 | Strategic Update: Howmet Acquisition Announced Details: GE announced the strategic acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing from Stanley Black & Decker for approximately $1.8 billion, aiming to bolster its supply chain for critical components. | Modest 1.6% gain $319.94 -> $325.12 |
Jan 22, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY26 Guidance Details: GE beat Q4 estimates but guided for 'low double-digit' revenue growth in FY26, a sharp deceleration from 18% in FY25, causing the stock to plummet. | Plummeted -7.4% $318.50 -> $295.00 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The stock is in a Moderate Volatility regime. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by decelerating growth guidance and an expensive valuation, creates a poor near-term risk/reward, mandating a Conservative sizing.
Diversification Alternatives
HWM
SECTORHWM is a pure-play on critical aerospace components with high pricing power. It benefits from the same aerospace upcycle as GE but with a simpler business model, avoiding engine platform risk.
FTAI
SECTORAvoids GE's manufacturing and R&D risk. As an engine leasing and maintenance company, its model offers stable, asset-backed exposure to growth in aviation flight hours.
GE Aerospace is a high-margin, services-centric industrial tech leader whose valuation is driven by the long-term, recurring revenue from its massive ~$190 billion backlog of multi-decade aftermarket service agreements on a vast installed base of commercial and military jet engines.
Filter all news through the lens of long-term services revenue durability and execution on the LEAP engine production ramp and maturation.
News of multi-year service agreement extensions with major airlines; data showing increasing flight hours and shop visits; evidence of LEAP engine durability improvements leading to longer time-on-wing; book-to-bill ratio > 1.1x.
Systemic engine durability issues requiring costly fleet-wide fixes (e.g. powder metal contamination); major airline bankruptcies impacting the services backlog; a sharp and sustained downturn in global air travel reducing flight hours; loss of engine exclusivity on a key new airframe.
Single-quarter fluctuations in engine delivery numbers (backlog is the driver); minor shifts in headline commodity prices (largely managed through contracts); individual airshow order wins/losses (focus on the total backlog trend).
Repricing Catalyst
The market is re-rating GE Aerospace as a pure-play leader with exceptional earnings visibility, driven by the compounding growth of its high-margin services business. The key catalyst is the maturation of the LEAP engine installed base, which is expected to triple by 2030, transitioning from initial low-margin equipment sales to a multi-decade, high-margin aftermarket revenue stream, mirroring the highly profitable CFM56 program.
Commercial Engines & Aftermarket Services
$33.3B TTM (75.9% of Total) · 26.6% MarginWhat It Is
CFM LEAP engines for Airbus A320neo & Boeing 737 MAX; GEnx engines for Boeing 787 & 747-8; GE9X engine for Boeing 777X; CFM56 legacy engines.
Who Pays & How
Airlines (e.g. Qatar Airways, Riyadh Air, Cathay Pacific) and Airframers (Boeing, Airbus) pay for engines and sign multi-decade Long-Term Service Agreements (LTSAs) because the engines are certified for the aircraft and switching is prohibitively expensive, creating a powerful economic lock-in.
Competition
Defense & Propulsion Technologies
$10.6B TTM (24.1% of Total) · 12.3% MarginWhat It Is
F110 engines for F-15/F-16 fighters; T408 engines for CH-53K King Stallion helicopter; propulsion and additive technologies for various military platforms.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Government and allied foreign militaries pay for engines and long-term support contracts due to GE's established position on critical, long-life defense programs and its advanced technology.
Competition
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