Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (4/8/2026): $55.02 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Specialized Consumer Services
Frontdoor (FTDR)
Market Price (4/8/2026): $55.02Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Specialized Consumer Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 9.9% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. | Key risksFTDR key risks include [1] significant indebtedness of approximately $2.5 billion that limits financial flexibility and [2] a heavy operational dependence on its large network of independent contractors for service delivery. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 9.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Building Management Systems, and Real Estate Data Analytics. |
| Key risksFTDR key risks include [1] significant indebtedness of approximately $2.5 billion that limits financial flexibility and [2] a heavy operational dependence on its large network of independent contractors for service delivery. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Frontdoor's cautious 2026 revenue guidance fell short of analyst expectations, tempering investor enthusiasm despite a strong Q4 2025 earnings beat.
On February 26, 2026, Frontdoor reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, surpassing analyst consensus estimates of $0.11 to $0.13. Revenue also exceeded expectations, reaching $433 million against estimates of $421.59 million to $429.9 million. However, the company's outlook for 2026 disappointed investors. Frontdoor projected first-quarter 2026 revenue between $440 million and $445 million, with the midpoint of $442.5 million falling below the analyst consensus of $457.1 million to $466.3 million. Similarly, the full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $2.155 billion to $2.195 billion was below the analyst consensus of $2.2 billion to $2.246 billion, leading to a muted market reaction.
2. Increased servicing costs and persistent contractor shortages posed headwinds for profitability and operational efficiency.
Frontdoor's fourth-quarter 2025 financial results included $7 million of higher contract claims costs, attributed primarily to low-single-digit cost inflation and a higher number of service requests per customer. The broader home services industry also faced significant challenges in early 2026, including a projected deficit of 110,000 licensed technicians. These rising servicing costs and contractor shortages were identified as ongoing risks for Frontdoor, potentially pressuring its margins and ability to meet demand.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.7% change in FTDR stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 57.69 | 54.99 | -4.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,042 | 2,092 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 12.2% | -5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 15.4 | -3.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 73 | 72 | 1.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.7% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | -4.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 14.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.7% | 35.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.3% change in FTDR stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.29 | 54.99 | -18.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,966 | 2,092 | 6.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 12.2% | -6.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.2 | 15.4 | -20.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 74 | 72 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | -18.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 17.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -9.9% | 28.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.1% change in FTDR stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 24.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.42 | 54.99 | 43.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,844 | 2,092 | 13.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.7% | 12.2% | -4.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.4 | 15.4 | 24.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 76 | 72 | 5.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 43.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 29.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 9.8% | 36.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 97.2% change in FTDR stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 186.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 27.88 | 54.99 | 97.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,663 | 2,092 | 25.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 12.2% | 186.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.9 | 15.4 | -51.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 81 | 72 | 13.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 97.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 97.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 47.4% | 33.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTDR Return | -27% | -43% | 69% | 55% | 6% | -3% | 11% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -42% | 33% | 14% | 21% | -17% | 10% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTDR Win Rate | 33% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 38% | 53% | 48% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTDR Max Drawdown | -35% | -47% | 0% | -16% | -32% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -52% | -25% | -26% | -27% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FAF, ORI, FNF, ANGI, PRCH. See FTDR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/7/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 265 days | 120 days |
Compare to FAF, ORI, FNF, ANGI, PRCH
In The Past
Frontdoor's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Frontdoor (FTDR)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Home Service Plans: These plans cover the repair or replacement of principal components of major home systems and appliances.
- ProConnect: An on-demand home services business connecting homeowners with professionals for various home repairs.
- Streem: A technology platform that uses augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to help home service professionals diagnose breakdowns and complete repairs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor (FTDR) primarily serves individuals. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
-
Homeowners purchasing comprehensive service plans: These are individuals who subscribe to annual contracts (e.g., under the American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, and OneGuard brands) to cover the repair or replacement of major home systems and appliances. They seek peace of mind, budgeting predictability, and convenience in managing potential home repairs.
-
Homeowners utilizing on-demand home services: This category includes individuals who need immediate repairs or maintenance for specific issues and may use Frontdoor's ProConnect service to connect with home service professionals for ad-hoc services, often outside of a long-term plan.
-
Homebuyers and Sellers: Homeowners who purchase or receive home service plans (often as part of a real estate transaction) to provide coverage during the home buying or selling process. These plans offer protection against unforeseen system or appliance breakdowns for a specified period, benefiting both parties in a real estate deal.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Bill Cobb, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
Bill Cobb was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Frontdoor in June 2022 and also serves as Chairman of the Board. He joined Frontdoor's board of directors in October 2018 and previously served on the board of its former parent company, ServiceMaster Global Holdings, Inc., from April 2018 until Frontdoor's separation in October 2018. Before Frontdoor, he held significant leadership roles including president and chief executive officer of H&R Block, Inc. from 2011 to 2017. From 2000 to 2008, he held various leadership positions at eBay, Inc., including president of eBay Marketplaces North America. Earlier in his career (1987-2000), Cobb held marketing and executive roles at PepsiCo and Tricon Global Restaurants, such as senior vice president and chief marketing officer for Tricon International and Pizza Hut. He currently serves on the board of directors of Deluxe Corporation.
Jason Bailey, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jason Bailey was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontdoor, effective November 10, 2025. He brings over 25 years of progressive leadership experience in finance and public accounting, with more than 15 years spent at Frontdoor and its former publicly traded parent, ServiceMaster. Prior to his current role, Bailey served as Vice President, Finance for Frontdoor. His professional background also includes 11 years in public accounting with Deloitte and Arthur Andersen.
Kathy Collins, Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer
Kathy Collins was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer, effective January 1, 2024. In this role, she is responsible for overseeing and optimizing all revenue-generating activities for Frontdoor's brands, including product and service development, sales, marketing, and corporate partnerships. Previously, she served as the Senior Vice President and Chief Brand Officer for Frontdoor.
Evan Iverson, Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Evan Iverson was promoted to Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, effective January 1, 2024. He is responsible for overseeing all day-to-day operational functions for the American Home Shield and Frontdoor brands, with a focus on enhancing contractor and member experiences. Iverson joined Frontdoor in January 2019 as Vice President of Operations and subsequently held positions as Vice President of Contractor Relations and Senior Vice President of Contractor Engagement.
Bala Ganesh, Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer
Dr. Bala Ganesh assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer for Frontdoor in July 2025. Prior to this, he served as a Frontdoor board director from July 2023 to June 2025. His previous experience includes serving as Chief Technology Officer at OnTrac Logistics and as a Partner at AKF Consulting LLC, a technology consulting firm. He also spent over 10 years at United Parcel Service (UPS) in various technology leadership positions, including Vice President of Engineering, Vice President of Advanced Technology, and Vice President of Advanced Analytics and Revenue Management.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Frontdoor's business operations include its sensitivity to macroeconomic and housing market conditions, the rising cost of repairs and reliance on its contractor network, and intense competition within the home services industry.- Macroeconomic Conditions and Housing Market Sensitivity: Frontdoor's business is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and trends in the housing market. Economic downturns, fluctuations in interest rates, and a cooling housing market can directly lead to reduced consumer spending on home service plans and a decrease in demand for new home warranties. This sensitivity can impact both customer acquisition and retention.
- Rising Costs and Contractor Dependence: The company's profitability is significantly affected by the cost of repairs and replacements of covered home systems and appliances, including the cost of labor and parts. Inflationary pressures and potential tariffs can increase these costs, thereby squeezing profit margins. Furthermore, Frontdoor relies on a vast network of independent contractors. Risks associated with this dependence include the availability and quality of these professionals, the ability to replace contractors in a timely manner if relationships are terminated, and potential increases in contractor costs, all of which can impact service delivery and customer satisfaction.
- Intense Competition: The home services and home warranty market is highly fragmented and competitive, with numerous established players and new entrants vying for market share. This intense competition can exert pressure on pricing, erode profit margins, and necessitate significant investment in marketing and customer acquisition strategies, making it challenging to maintain market position and grow customer numbers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The proliferation of smart home technology, IoT devices, and predictive maintenance solutions.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) operates within significant addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily in the United States.
Home Service Plans
The addressable market for home service plans in the U.S. is substantial. The United States Home Warranty Market was valued at approximately $4.26 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach about $5.68 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.19% from 2026 to 2032. Another estimate places the U.S. home warranty market size at $4.6 billion in 2026. Frontdoor itself recognizes this as a $4 billion opportunity in the U.S. with low penetration, where it holds a dominant 46% market share.
ProConnect On-Demand Home Services
The broader U.S. home services industry, which includes on-demand services like Frontdoor's ProConnect, represents an estimated annual revenue of over $500 billion. Frontdoor has stated its aim to transform this market with its on-demand offerings. More specifically, the U.S. online on-demand home services market is projected to grow to $1.7 billion by 2028. Globally, the online on-demand home services market was valued at $5.15 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to $19.65 billion by 2033. North America leads this global market, accounting for approximately 45% of the total market share.
Streem (Augmented Reality, Computer Vision, and Machine Learning Platform)
Frontdoor's Streem platform leverages augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning to assist home service professionals. The global augmented reality market is anticipated to reach $591.7 billion by 2033, with an estimated size of $29.6 billion in 2024. In North America, the demand for augmented reality reached $7.6 billion in 2023. A significant application for augmented reality, remote assistance and maintenance, which aligns with Streem's function, represented 29.09% of revenues in the augmented reality market in 2025. The global computer vision market size was valued at $21.7 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to $35.4 billion by 2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontdoor (NASDAQ: FTDR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives:- Growth in Member Count: After stabilizing its member base in 2025, Frontdoor anticipates a resumption of member growth in 2026, marking the first increase since 2020. This growth is projected to be fueled by approximately 5% first-year channel growth and enhanced momentum in both the direct-to-consumer (DTC) and real estate channels.
- Expansion of Non-Warranty Services: The company is strategically expanding its non-warranty revenue streams. The new HVAC program demonstrated significant success, growing 48% to $128 million in 2025 and is forecasted to reach approximately $165 million in 2026. Additionally, Frontdoor has broadened its partnership with Moen and initiated an appliance upgrade pilot program, contributing to a 66% rise in non-warranty and other revenue in 2025, with projections of $220 million to $240 million for 2026.
- Strategic Price Increases: Frontdoor has realized revenue growth through a combination of increased volume and strategic price adjustments. Management anticipates that ongoing price increases of 2-3% will be a foundational element supporting its revenue guidance for 2026.
- Synergies from the 2-10 Acquisition: The integration of the 2-10 acquisition is progressing ahead of schedule, with over $20 million in cost synergies realized in 2025, surpassing the initial $10 million target. Frontdoor plans to migrate the 2-10 platform in 2026 to unlock further revenue synergies and strengthen its relationships with builders and real estate partners.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Frontdoor authorized a new three-year share repurchase program of up to $400 million in September 2021, with the program expected to run through September 2024.
- The company repurchased $160 million of shares in 2024, acquiring approximately 4 million shares, and an additional $280 million in 2025, which reduced shares outstanding by 7%.
- Since 2021, Frontdoor has cumulatively repurchased approximately 17 million shares totaling $720 million, leading to a net reduction of about 17% in shares outstanding. Furthermore, nearly half of a separate $650 million authorization, initiated in late 2024, has been completed, with the remaining $329 million anticipated to be utilized by early 2027.
Outbound Investments
- Frontdoor acquired 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty (2-10 HBW) in an all-cash transaction valued at $585 million, with the agreement entered into in June 2024 and the acquisition completed in December 2024.
- The acquisition was partially funded through a new $1.47 billion credit facility.
- The acquisition of 2-10 HBW diversifies Frontdoor's business into new home structural warranties, adding members, revenue, and EBITDA, and generated over $20 million in cost synergies during 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $39 million in 2024 and $26 million in 2025, primarily directed towards recurring capital needs and technology projects.
- Frontdoor forecasts its capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 to be in the range of $30 million to $35 million.
- The company operates with a "capital-light business model" but consistently invests in capability-expanding technology, focusing on its technology-enabled platform to enhance efficiency and service quality.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Is 12.7% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 03/19/2026 | |
| Frontdoor Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| Is 21.8% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/27/2025 | |
| Is 28.8% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/07/2025 | |
| Is 20.4% Fall In Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | 11/06/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Frontdoor Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Frontdoor vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Frontdoor Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Time To Buy The Dip In Frontdoor Stock? | 03/19/2026 | |
| Frontdoor Stock To $70? | 11/27/2025 | |
| Frontdoor Stock To $65? | 11/07/2025 | |
| Why Frontdoor’s 16% Selloff May Be More Than a Blip | 11/06/2025 | |
| Frontdoor Stock Down 20%,Time to Buy? | 11/06/2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to FTDR.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 03312025 | FTDR | Frontdoor | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 73.6% | 37.6% | -2.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| Rev LTM | 4,768 |
| Op Inc LTM | 239 |
| FCF LTM | 576 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 387 |
| CFO LTM | 683 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 515 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.8 |
| P/E | 10.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.6 |
| Total Yield | 11.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -14.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 78.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $54.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/01/2018 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $59.36 | $59.64 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -7.4% | -7.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 48.7% | 41.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.13 | 0.32 |
| Upside Capture | -0.89 | 78.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.2% | 29.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.77 | 0.30 | 0.56 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| Up Beta | 2.99 | 1.22 | 2.04 | 1.63 | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.42 | 0.92 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| Up Capture | -42% | -19% | 1% | 2% | 72% | 77% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 29 | 63 | 134 | 386 |
| Down Capture | 168% | 22% | 23% | 53% | 58% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 34 | 63 | 115 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 46.0% | 41.7% | 1.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.6% | 22.8% | 0.48 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.3% | 18.3% | 0.94 | 27.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 51.9% | 28.0% | 1.49 | -3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 20.3% | 17.2% | 1.02 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.9% | 16.1% | 0.23 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.5% | 44.0% | -0.31 | 13.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 0.2% | 37.8% | 0.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.1% | 23.7% | 0.22 | 38.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.7% | 17.0% | 0.53 | 36.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.5% | 17.8% | 1.04 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 12.0% | 18.8% | 0.52 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 34.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.1% | 56.5% | 0.28 | 13.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FTDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 2.7% | 40.5% | 0.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.8% | 22.0% | 0.49 | 37.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 37.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 10.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 34.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.6% | 66.8% | 1.06 | 10.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/26/2026 | 16.8% | 20.6% | -0.8% |
| 11/5/2025 | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.0% | -4.2% | 6.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 13.2% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| 11/4/2024 | 6.9% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | 12.8% | 11.1% | 20.5% |
| 2/28/2024 | -5.8% | -8.7% | -2.2% |
| 11/1/2023 | 15.1% | 23.0% | 18.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.3% |
| Median Negative | -8.4% | -9.0% | -12.2% |
| Max Positive | 16.8% | 28.9% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -21.5% | -19.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 440.00 Mil | 442.50 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 5.4% | Higher New | Guidance: 420.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 95.00 Mil | 100.00 Mil | 105.00 Mil | 90.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | 2.15 Bil | 2.17 Bil | 2.19 Bil | 4.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 2.08 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 565.00 Mil | 572.50 Mil | 580.00 Mil | 4.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 547.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit Margin | 54.0% | 54.5% | 55.0% | -1.8% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 55.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | 8.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 30.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 415.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 425.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 50.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 55.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Revenue | 2.08 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.06 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 545.00 Mil | 547.50 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 540.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Profit Margin | 55.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 55.5% for 2025 | ||
| 2025 SG&A | 670.00 Mil | 672.50 Mil | 675.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | 30.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2025 Annual Effective Tax Rate | 25.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Collins, Kathryn M | SVP & Chief Revenue Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 59.02 | 9,429 | 556,484 | 577,377 | Form |
| 2 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP, CLO & Secretary | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 56.15 | 129,673 | 7,280,568 | 1,945,220 | Form |
| 3 | Iverson, Evan | SVP & Chief Operating Officer | Direct | Sell | 5122025 | 53.41 | 14,577 | 778,622 | 245,333 | Form |
| 4 | Fiarman, Jeffrey | SVP & Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 67.60 | 15,000 | 1,014,024 | 1,338,917 | Form |
FTDR Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is highly attractive at 2.90x. The analysis suggests a high probability (70%) of a favorable outcome driven by a widening competitive moat in a strong sector. The primary risk of margin compression is manageable and outweighed by the powerful alpha driver of mix shift to higher-margin services.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowThe business exhibits classic 'Mature Cash Cow' traits: dominant market leadership, a subscription-like recurring revenue model, high margins (57% gross), and strong FCF conversion. Organic growth is in the low single digits, well below hyper-growth territory, and capital allocation is focused on acquisitions and buybacks, not aggressive reinvestment for growth.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver of upside is the ongoing mix shift toward the higher-margin Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channel and the rapid growth of the nascent, high-margin 'Other' (non-warranty) revenue segment. This combination allows for margin expansion and growth acceleration beyond the mature core market.
- Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) segment grew 10.2% YoY in Q3 2025, outpacing the 9.2% growth in renewals.
- The 'Other' (non-warranty) revenue segment accelerated significantly, growing 73.5% YoY in Q3 2025.
- Gross Profit Margin expanded by 60 basis points to 57% in Q3 2025, demonstrating the positive impact of mix and pricing power.
- Customer retention is improving, reaching 79.4% in Q3 2025, which supports the high-margin renewal revenue base.
PRIMARY RISK
A structural, nationwide shortage of skilled tradespeople (HVAC technicians, plumbers, electricians) is driving up contractor costs. This directly inflates Frontdoor's cost of revenue, threatening to compress its high gross margins faster than it can offset with price increases, leading to potential EPS misses.
- Management acknowledged facing 'low-to-mid-single digit cost inflation' across its contractor network in Q3 2025.
- Industry data confirms a structural shortage of skilled labor, including ~110,000 HVAC technicians, heading into 2026.
- Peer Angi Inc. (ANGI) has faced operational headwinds and stock price pressure from labor shortages constraining its network.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit Margin | Guidance > 57% | This is the direct indicator of the battle between pricing power and contractor cost inflation. Sustained or expanding margins are critical to the thesis. |
| Customer Retention Rate | Sequential growth or stability > 79% | Measures the stickiness of the customer base and the company's ability to pass through price increases without churn. It is a key proxy for the strength of the moat. |
| Organic Revenue Growth (ex-acquisitions) | > 3-4% | Needs to at least keep pace with the market's underlying growth rate (~6%) to prove it is not losing share organically. Growth in the DTC channel is the key component to watch. |
Margin Integrity vs. Contractor Inflation
BULL VIEW
Bulls bet demonstrated pricing power, accelerating customer retention (79.4%), and expanding gross margins prove the model can absorb inflation and protect profitability.
CORE TENSION
Can Frontdoor's pricing power and efficiency gains continue to outpace the rising costs of a structurally tight skilled labor market, or will margins compress?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Sentiment is Neutral. While Q3 2025 retention accelerated to 79.4%, management also acknowledged 'low-to-mid-single digit cost inflation', validating the core of the bear thesis.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see decelerating organic growth (3%) and a severe skilled trades shortage as precursors to inevitable margin compression, believing pricing power has a ceiling.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
February 26, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY 2026 Guidance Watch: 2026 Gross Margin Guidance. A number below the current 57% signals contractor cost inflation is outpacing pricing power, confirming the primary bear thesis. |
Monthly | National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Home Sales Data Watch: Sequential change in existing home sales. Continued stagnation below historical norms directly pressures FTDR's real estate channel for new member growth. |
Early May 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Customer Retention Rate. A sequential dip from the 79.4% high would signal churn pressure from competitors or price increases, threatening recurring revenue stability. |
Anytime | Regulatory Inquiry Announcement Watch: Announcement of a multi-state or FTC investigation into home warranty industry practices, specifically regarding claim denials. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-04 | Strategic Marketing Initiative Details: American Home Shield launched a major Labor Day sale. The event highlighted marketing efforts to drive direct-to-consumer growth. | Modest 1.8% gain $62.15 -> $63.29 |
2025-08-05 | Q2 2025 Earnings & Raised Guidance Details: FTDR beat estimates and raised its 2025 revenue outlook. Despite the positive news, the stock declined, indicating market skepticism about future growth. | Fell notably by 4.0% $58.49 -> $56.16 |
2025-08-21 | Insider Stock Sale (COO) Details: The Senior VP & COO, Evan Iverson, sold a significant portion of his holdings, a potential signal of peak valuation from a key insider. | Muted (-0.3%) $58.86 -> $58.67 |
2025-11-05 | Q3 2025 Earnings & Raised Guidance Details: Despite beating EPS/revenue estimates and raising full-year guidance, the stock crashed, suggesting concerns over acquisition-driven growth and underlying organic deceleration. | Plummeted 15.9% $65.74 -> $55.26 |
2025-11-18 | Wells Fargo TMT Summit Presentation Details: Company presented at an investor conference. The stock reaction was muted, suggesting no significant new information was disclosed. | Flat (0.8%) $49.10 -> $49.47 |
2026-01-26 | Q4 2025 Earnings Date Announcement Details: Frontdoor announced it would release Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on February 26, 2026. The market reacted positively ahead of the report. | Rose significantly by 2.0% $57.99 -> $59.15 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
The stock's volatility is Explosive (3.45x S&P), which caps position size. Despite high visibility and a stable moat, Neutral sentiment warrants a standard, not aggressive, allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
ROL
SECTORUnlike FTDR's cyclical real estate exposure, Rollins offers recurring revenue from non-discretionary pest control services, providing greater resilience in a housing downturn.
CHE
SECTORChemed operates Roto-Rooter, a premier brand in plumbing/drain services with high-margin, emergency-driven demand, insulating it from the discretionary spending pressures facing FTDR.
Frontdoor is evolving from a pure home warranty subscription service into a diversified home services platform, integrating the large 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty acquisition and expanding into on-demand, non-warranty services like HVAC upgrades to drive growth.
Filter all news through the lens of subscriber economics and diversification. Is the company successfully integrating its 2-10 acquisition, maintaining its high renewal rates, and growing its high-margin, on-demand services?
Renewal rates holding at or above ~80%; YoY growth in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) members >5%; revenue from non-warranty services (e.g., HVAC upgrades, Moen partnership) growing >20% YoY; evidence of successful cost synergies from the 2-10 HBW acquisition.
Customer retention rate dropping below 75%; a sustained decline in first-year home warranty sales through the real estate channel that isn't offset by DTC growth; significant service cost inflation that erodes gross margins below 50%; failure to realize guided synergies from the 2-10 HBW acquisition.
Quarterly fluctuations in the housing market — the company's large renewal base (~78% of warranty revenue) provides significant insulation; minor changes in contractor network size — the network is already vast at ~17,000 firms; competitor announcements of new basic warranty plans — Frontdoor's scale and brand recognition provide a significant moat.
Repricing Catalyst
[DATED: May 2025] The successful integration of the 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty (2-10 HBW) acquisition, completed in December 2024 for $585 million, and the expansion into non-warranty services are the primary catalysts. The 2-10 acquisition is guided to be a primary driver of the 12% volume growth seen in Q3 2025 and is expected to contribute significantly to the full-year 2025 revenue target of ~$2.08B. The fast-growing on-demand HVAC upgrade program is projected to generate ~$120 million in 2025, signaling a successful diversification beyond the core subscription model.
Home Warranty Subscriptions (Renewals & New)
$1.9B TTM (91% of Total) · 57% MarginWhat It Is
Annual service plans covering repair/replacement of home systems and appliances (e.g., HVAC, plumbing, electrical, refrigerators, dishwashers) under brands like American Home Shield and 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty.
Who Pays & How
Over 2.11 million homeowners pay an average of ~$600-$900/year for budget protection against unexpected, high-cost home repairs. The high renewal rate of ~79% indicates customers value this financial certainty and the convenience of accessing a pre-vetted contractor network.
Competition
On-Demand & Other Services
$0.2B TTM (9% of Total) · 57% MarginWhat It Is
On-demand home services not covered by warranty (e.g., new HVAC installations/upgrades), new home structural warranties (from 2-10 HBW acquisition), and revenue from partnerships (e.g., Moen).
Who Pays & How
Homeowners (both warranty members and non-members) pay for specific, on-demand jobs, such as a full HVAC system replacement. They choose Frontdoor for access to its vetted contractor network and transparent pricing.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.