Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.5%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electrification of Everything, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 6.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Electrification of Everything, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.5%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FCX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the movement in Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025:



1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat. Freeport-McMoRan reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 23, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.50, significantly surpassing analyst estimates of $0.41. This marked a 31% increase year-over-year and was supported by higher average realized copper prices and disciplined cost control. Revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $6.97 billion against an expected $6.7 billion.

2. Favorable Copper and Gold Price Trends. The company benefited from a strong commodity market, particularly for copper and gold. Copper prices reached new record highs in 2025, fueled by significant supply chain disruptions and strong electrification demand. Goldman Sachs maintained an optimistic forecast for Q4 2025 copper prices at $10,200/metric ton. Similarly, the gold outlook for Q4 2025 remained bullish, with prices supported by central bank demand, a weak US dollar, and expectations of looser monetary policy, with some forecasts predicting prices could top $4,000 per ounce.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FCX Return99%61%-7%14%-10%28%292%
Peers Return72%38%7%11%8%78%444%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FCX Win Rate75%58%42%42%33%67% 
Peers Win Rate60%53%57%58%47%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FCX Max Drawdown-59%-1%-39%-12%-14%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-10%-24%-15%-17%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCCO, NEM, GOLD, AEM, TECK. See FCX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFCXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-51.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven655 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven134.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven402 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven649.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to SCCO, NEM, TMC, FCX, HBM


In The Past

Freeport-McMoRan's stock fell -51.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/25/2022. A -51.7% loss requires a 107.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

Better Bets than Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FCX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
FCX_10032025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10032025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
19.9%19.9%-2.2%
FCX_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.2%26.6%-23.0%
FCX_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022FCXFreeport-McMoRanDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
46.5%37.0%-10.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.7%6.7%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%0.8%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
40.6%40.6%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
17.4%17.4%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.7%4.7%-2.5%
FCX_10032025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10032025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
19.9%19.9%-2.2%
FCX_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.2%26.6%-23.0%
FCX_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022FCXFreeport-McMoRanDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
46.5%37.0%-10.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Freeport-McMoRan

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FCXSCCONEMGOLDAEMTECKMedian
NameFreeport.Southern.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Teck Res. 
Mkt Price47.38142.4198.1431.72168.2743.1872.76
Mkt Cap68.1117.2107.70.684.521.176.3
Rev LTM26,00212,33521,50311,94410,56810,48412,139
Op Inc LTM6,9346,1999,359425,2231,2435,711
FCF LTM1,6253,4806,1224633,645-3282,553
FCF 3Y Avg1,4193,0352,636202,041-8941,730
CFO LTM6,3534,6189,2244755,8371,5085,228
CFO 3Y Avg6,1424,1125,616333,8832,6753,997

Growth & Margins

FCXSCCONEMGOLDAEMTECKMedian
NameFreeport.Southern.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Teck Res. 
Rev Chg LTM1.4%12.7%26.6%20.3%35.2%29.1%23.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.1%7.1%23.9%14.5%26.0%-12.0%10.8%
Rev Chg Q2.7%15.2%20.0%35.6%41.9%18.4%19.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%3.8%4.5%8.8%9.4%5.3%4.9%
Op Mgn LTM26.7%50.3%43.5%0.4%49.4%11.9%35.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg27.3%47.3%23.9%0.9%36.0%13.2%25.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.8%4.5%-0.1%3.6%0.5%0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM24.4%37.4%42.9%4.0%55.2%14.4%30.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.7%36.6%32.6%0.1%45.6%26.0%29.3%
FCF/Rev LTM6.2%28.2%28.5%3.9%34.5%-3.1%17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%27.0%13.8%-0.1%22.7%-7.9%9.7%

Valuation

FCXSCCONEMGOLDAEMTECKMedian
NameFreeport.Southern.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Teck Res. 
Mkt Cap68.1117.2107.70.684.521.176.3
P/S2.28.14.30.18.02.03.2
P/EBIT7.915.78.9-16.211.611.6
P/E27.226.112.986.424.617.125.3
P/CFO8.921.610.01.314.514.212.1
Total Yield5.2%6.1%9.0%2.7%4.9%7.0%5.7%
Dividend Yield1.5%2.3%1.2%1.5%0.8%1.2%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.3%3.8%3.6%-3.9%-3.9%3.6%
D/E0.20.10.1-0.00.40.1
Net D/E0.10.0-0.0--0.00.20.0

Returns

FCXSCCONEMGOLDAEMTECKMedian
NameFreeport.Southern.Newmont Gold.com Agnico E.Teck Res. 
1M Rtn18.0%9.0%12.1%26.7%0.3%5.0%10.5%
3M Rtn6.3%35.0%24.2%18.5%10.1%3.1%14.3%
6M Rtn16.5%52.5%70.6%45.2%35.9%12.4%40.5%
12M Rtn15.7%46.7%148.1%15.3%103.6%-1.4%31.2%
3Y Rtn29.2%166.6%133.6%7.5%257.2%21.3%81.4%
1M Excs Rtn13.7%4.5%6.1%21.9%-2.2%-0.9%5.3%
3M Excs Rtn1.0%27.2%20.8%14.8%6.5%-0.3%10.6%
6M Excs Rtn2.3%38.3%56.3%30.9%21.7%-1.9%26.3%
12M Excs Rtn-0.4%30.0%127.4%1.5%89.0%-17.4%15.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-45.7%92.4%52.0%-71.4%173.9%-49.2%3.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Indonesia Operations8,4378,4267,5233,6142,771
Rod & Refining5,9266,3126,3854,8144,483
Cerro Verde4,1173,9504,1962,5242,889
United States Copper Mines - Other3,8974,0214,0152,3202,379
Atlantic Copper Smelting & Refining2,8102,4432,9612,0372,068
Morenci2,4192,6892,8102,0442,007
South America Operations - Other824768720431499
Molybdenum Mines677565444222344
Corporate, Other & Eliminations-6,252-6,394-6,209-3,808-3,038
Total22,85522,78022,84514,19814,402


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Indonesia Operations4,7084,600   
Cerro Verde1,1741,216   
United States Copper Mines - Other537956   
Morenci502965   
Molybdenum Mines172132   
South America Operations - Other4612   
Atlantic Copper Smelting & Refining36-61   
Rod & Refining20-23   
Corporate, Other & Eliminations-970-760   
Total6,2257,037   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Indonesia Operations25,54820,639   
Cerro Verde8,1208,398   
United States Copper Mines - Other5,9965,552   
Corporate, Other & Eliminations4,4378,437   
Morenci3,1953,052   
South America Operations - Other1,9301,873   
Molybdenum Mines1,7821,697   
Atlantic Copper Smelting & Refining1,3261,262   
Rod & Refining172183   
Total52,50651,093   


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,725,394
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-7.4%
Average Daily Volume16,063,036
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.29
Basic Shares Quantity1,437,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20251.1%3.5%-2.8%
7/23/2025-2.1%-5.6%-9.8%
4/24/20256.9%2.4%7.1%
1/23/2025-1.5%-7.2%-5.4%
10/22/20241.2%-2.5%-8.0%
7/2/20244.0%5.9%-10.2%
4/23/2024-2.0%7.1%11.0%
1/24/20244.1%4.7%1.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131311
# Negative111113
Median Positive3.6%5.9%11.9%
Median Negative-2.1%-5.0%-6.4%
Max Positive10.9%17.6%30.7%
Max Negative-9.9%-16.5%-26.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025808202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Mikes Ellie L.Chief Accounting Officer6032025Sell40.028,584343,5201,934,219Form