CoreCivic (CXW)
Market Price (9/16/2026): $35.4 | Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
CoreCivic (CXW)
Market Price (9/16/2026): $35.4Market Cap: $3.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 76% Key risksCXW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government contracts vulnerable to political and legislative changes, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 76% |
| Key risksCXW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government contracts vulnerable to political and legislative changes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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CoreCivic (CXW) stock has gained about 70% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic asset sales significantly bolstered the company's financial position and allowed for substantial debt reduction. CoreCivic completed the sale of four detention facilities for a total gross price of $2.2 billion, resulting in approximately $1.6 billion in net proceeds after taxes and transaction costs. A portion of these proceeds was used to repay $238.5 million of 4.750% Senior Notes due 2027 on August 12, 2026, and the outstanding balance of its revolving credit facility, improving the balance sheet and capital flexibility.
2. Robust fiscal Q2 2026 earnings exceeded analyst expectations, coupled with an upward revision of full-year guidance. For fiscal Q2 2026, CoreCivic reported earnings per share of $0.38, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.34. Revenue increased by 27.3% year-over-year to $684.92 million, also exceeding analyst predictions. Following these strong results, the company updated its full-year 2026 diluted EPS guidance to $15.62-$15.82, reflecting the impact of asset sales.
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CoreCivic (CXW) stock has gained about 70% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strategic asset sales significantly bolstered the company's financial position and allowed for substantial debt reduction. CoreCivic completed the sale of four detention facilities for a total gross price of $2.2 billion, resulting in approximately $1.6 billion in net proceeds after taxes and transaction costs. A portion of these proceeds was used to repay $238.5 million of 4.750% Senior Notes due 2027 on August 12, 2026, and the outstanding balance of its revolving credit facility, improving the balance sheet and capital flexibility.
2. Robust fiscal Q2 2026 earnings exceeded analyst expectations, coupled with an upward revision of full-year guidance. For fiscal Q2 2026, CoreCivic reported earnings per share of $0.38, surpassing consensus estimates of $0.34. Revenue increased by 27.3% year-over-year to $684.92 million, also exceeding analyst predictions. Following these strong results, the company updated its full-year 2026 diluted EPS guidance to $15.62-$15.82, reflecting the impact of asset sales.
3. An expanded share repurchase program demonstrated management's confidence and commitment to shareholder returns. On August 4, 2026, CoreCivic's Board of Directors authorized an additional $500 million for its share repurchase program, increasing the total authorization to $1.2 billion. This was swiftly followed by the announcement of a $500 million accelerated share repurchase agreement on August 10, 2026, a move often interpreted as a signal that management believes the stock is undervalued.
4. Increased demand from government partners, including new contracts, drove higher occupancy and revenue growth. CoreCivic secured a new five-year contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on August 4, 2026, to reactivate its 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility, which had been idle since 2010. This coincided with an overall increase in federal revenue for fiscal Q2 2026, which rose by 27.2% compared to the prior year, primarily due to higher occupancy levels at ICE facilities and increased per diem payments. Overall, ICE populations in company care grew by 59.6% from the beginning of 2025 through June 30, 2026. Analysts highlighted an "unprecedented increase in mandatory government funding for federal detention and border security," including $75 billion for ICE, as a catalyst for increased contracting and reactivation of facilities.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 67.8% change in CXW stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 70.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.08 | 35.38 | 67.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,337 | 2,484 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.5% | 5.1% | -6.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.1 | 27.4 | 70.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 99 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 67.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 67.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.1% | -2.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.5% | 8.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 100.1% change in CXW stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 74.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.68 | 35.38 | 100.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,211 | 2,484 | 12.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.3% | 5.1% | -2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 27.4 | 74.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 103 | 99 | 4.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 100.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 100.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 10.7% | 10.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | -4.4% | 14.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.5% change in CXW stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 29.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.28 | 35.38 | 74.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,998 | 2,484 | 24.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.2% | 5.1% | -1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.2 | 27.4 | 29.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 99 | 9.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 74.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 74.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.4% | 14.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 14.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 228.8% change in CXW stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 168.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.76 | 35.38 | 228.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,857 | 2,484 | 33.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.5% | 5.1% | -20.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.2 | 27.4 | 168.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 114 | 99 | 14.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 228.8% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 228.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 25.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 62.5% | 27.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CXW Return | 52% | 16% | 26% | 50% | -12% | 79% | 423% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 4% | 0% | 75% | -31% | 55% | 94% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CXW Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 38% | 54% | 50% | 42% | 61% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CXW Max Drawdown | -30% | -36% | -28% | -31% | -30% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -35% | -39% | -28% | -45% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GEO, DEA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CXW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 15 days |
In The Past
CoreCivic's stock fell -5.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CXW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1138 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1808 days | 47 days |
In The Past
CoreCivic's stock fell -5.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CoreCivic (CXW)
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) is a U.S.-based company that partners with government entities to provide comprehensive solutions in corrections, detention, and offender rehabilitation. The company operates through three main segments: CoreCivic Safety, which manages correctional and detention facilities; CoreCivic Community, focused on residential reentry centers; and CoreCivic Properties, which offers government real estate solutions.
The company's core services include the operation and management of a network of correctional and detention facilities across the United States. Within these facilities and its residential reentry centers, CoreCivic offers a range of rehabilitative and educational programs. These programs are designed to address America's recidivism crisis and include basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment.
CoreCivic's primary customers are various U.S. government partners, including federal, state, and local agencies. The company's business model involves owning and operating these facilities, and also leasing properties to its government clients, acting as a specialized real estate provider in the public safety sector.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe CoreCivic (CXW):
- Think of it like an HCA Healthcare, but for prisons, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities instead of hospitals.
- It's similar to G4S (a global security firm), but specialized in owning and operating correctional and detention facilities exclusively for U.S. government partners.
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- Correctional and Detention Facility Management: Manages and operates correctional and detention facilities for government partners.
- Residential Reentry Center Operations: Operates a network of residential reentry centers designed to help individuals transition back into society and reduce recidivism.
- Government Real Estate Solutions: Provides government partners with real estate solutions by owning properties for lease.
- Inmate and Resident Rehabilitation Programs: Offers a range of rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, life skills, employment training, and substance abuse treatment, within its facilities.
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CoreCivic (CXW) primarily sells its services to various government agencies, not to other companies or individuals. Its major customers include:
- Federal Government Agencies:
- U.S. Marshals Service (USMS)
- Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP)
- State Governments: Various state departments of corrections and other state agencies across the United States.
- Local Governments: County and municipal entities seeking correctional, detention, or residential reentry solutions.
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Patrick D. Swindle, President and Chief Executive Officer
Patrick D. Swindle was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of CoreCivic, effective January 1, 2026. He previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer from January 1, 2025. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007, holding various leadership positions including Managing Director, Treasury; Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer; and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to his tenure at CoreCivic, he spent ten years in equity research, working at SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., and Avondale Partners, LLC.
David Garfinkle, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David Garfinkle serves as CoreCivic's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. He has been with the company for nearly 20 years, serving as CFO for approximately six to seven years as of February 2021.
Daren Swenson, Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer
Daren Swenson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer, effective January 1, 2026, overseeing the operations for CoreCivic's corrections, detention, and reentry facilities. He began his career with CoreCivic in 1992 as a Correctional Sergeant and has since held multiple leadership roles, including Warden, Managing Director, Vice President, and Senior Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer.
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Regulatory and Political Risks
CoreCivic faces significant risks due to the highly regulated nature of its industry and its heavy reliance on government contracts. Changes in political administrations, legislative actions, and public sentiment can directly impact the company's ability to obtain new contracts, renew existing ones, or even continue operations in certain areas. For example, presidential executive orders or state-level legislation restricting private correctional or detention facilities can lead to contract non-renewals and reduced demand. The company's business model is substantially dependent on federal and state government demand for correctional, detention, and residential reentry services.
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Reputational Risks and Litigation
The company operates in an industry subject to intense public scrutiny, leading to significant reputational risks. CoreCivic faces ongoing legal and social challenges stemming from allegations of inhumane conditions, understaffing, violence, medical negligence, and other operational deficiencies within its facilities. These issues often result in class-action lawsuits, federal investigations, and negative publicity, which can increase operational costs, damage relationships with government partners, and potentially lead to contract terminations or difficulties in securing new business.
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High Level of Indebtedness and Occupancy Fluctuations
CoreCivic carries a notable level of debt, which can limit its financial flexibility and its capacity to adapt to market changes or invest in growth opportunities. Furthermore, the company's revenue and profitability are largely dependent on the occupancy levels of its facilities, as a significant portion of its income is derived from per diem payments. Fluctuations in inmate populations or changes in government policies affecting detention numbers can directly impact occupancy rates, leading to revenue volatility and affecting the company's financial performance.
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CoreCivic Safety (Corrections and Detention Management)
The private correctional facilities market in the United States generates approximately $4 billion to $7.4 billion in revenue per year. North America, driven primarily by the United States, holds the largest share of the global private prison service market, which was valued at approximately USD 8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 12.5 billion by 2032. The broader correctional facilities industry in the U.S. had an estimated revenue of $9.0 billion in 2025.CoreCivic Community (Residential Reentry Centers)
While a specific market size in USD for residential reentry centers is not readily available, these programs are considered a growing niche within the broader criminal justice system. Approximately 5 million people in the U.S. are under some form of criminal justice supervision, such as probation or parole, creating demand for services like reentry programs and community corrections provided by companies like CoreCivic. The global correctional system market, which includes rehabilitation and reintegration efforts, is anticipated to grow from USD 4.85 billion to USD 9.40 billion by 2033, driven in part by recidivism reduction initiatives.CoreCivic Properties (Government Real Estate Solutions)
A distinct addressable market size for CoreCivic's specific "government real estate solutions" beyond their correctional facilities is not precisely quantifiable from the available data. However, these services operate within the much larger U.S. real estate market. The overall U.S. real estate market was valued at USD 3.43 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.52 trillion by 2034. The U.S. office real estate market, a segment of the broader real estate market, was valued at USD 369.58 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 447.86 billion by 2031.AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for CoreCivic (CXW)
CoreCivic (CXW) is anticipated to experience revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors stemming from its partnerships with federal, state, and local governments.
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Increased Demand and Contracts from Federal Partners, Particularly ICE: CoreCivic expects continued significant demand from federal government partners, especially U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The company has secured new contracts and contract modifications to house immigration detainees, with management anticipating further growth in detainee populations. For example, CoreCivic announced contract modifications to add capacity for ICE detainees at multiple facilities in February 2025.
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Activation of Idle Facilities and Higher Occupancy Rates: CoreCivic has a supply of available beds in currently idle facilities. The company is actively reactivating some of these facilities and has seen increased occupancy across its Safety and Community segments. This strategy directly contributes to higher revenue as more beds are utilized. The full activation of facilities like the Dilley Immigration Processing Center in 2025 and ongoing start-up activities at California City and Diamondback facilities are expected to drive growth.
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New and Expanded Contracts with State and Local Governments: Beyond federal agreements, CoreCivic continues to expand its relationships with state and local government partners. The company has secured new management contracts with various states, such as Montana and Wyoming, and counties like Hines County, Mississippi, and Harris County, Texas, which contribute to its revenue growth.
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Per Diem Rate Increases: CoreCivic has successfully negotiated per diem rate increases with its government partners. These increases, particularly from state customers who often implement them at the start of their fiscal years (typically July), help offset inflationary costs and enhance revenue per mandate.
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Share Repurchases
- CoreCivic's Board of Directors authorized an increase of $200 million to its existing share repurchase program on November 10, 2025, raising the total authorization to $700 million.
- Since the program's inception in May 2022 through November 7, 2025, the company repurchased 21.5 million shares for an aggregate cost of $322.1 million, at an average price of $14.98 per share.
- As of November 7, 2025, $377.9 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, CoreCivic anticipates capital expenditures of $30.0 million to $35.0 million for real estate maintenance, $30.0 million to $35.0 million for other asset and information technology maintenance, and $15.0 million for other capital investments.
- In 2025, the company expected to invest $29.0 million to $31.0 million in maintenance capital expenditures on real estate assets, $31.0 million to $34.0 million for maintenance capital expenditures on other assets and information technology, and $6.0 million to $7.0 million for other capital investments. Additionally, $35.0 million to $40.0 million was earmarked for activating previously idle facilities.
- CoreCivic projected capital expenditures between $70.0 million and $76.0 million for 2024, which included amounts for maintenance on real estate assets, other assets and information technology, and costs to prepare an idle facility for potential activation.
Peer Outperformance in Diversified Support Services
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 10.9% | 96.8% | 180.5% | CDNL 2493% · FIX 2206% · STRL 1934% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 79.5% | 63.5% | 166.9% | HOS 46479% · MATX 201% · KEX 167% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 6.7% | 60.4% | 124.0% | CAT 319% · ALSN 264% · WAB 223% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -4.4% | 75.4% | 72.9% | ATI 985% · FTAI 881% · HWM 625% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 30.8% | 64.5% | 43.4% | FSTR 140% · CSX 68% · UNP 56% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.0% | 38.9% | 38.0% | DXPE 561% · AIT 288% · WCC 201% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 7.6% | 43.3% | 36.4% | CRS 1276% · PSIX 919% · GHM 582% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 34.9% | 6.4% | 32.7% | XPO 249% · R 240% · CVLG 238% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -23.2% | 39.1% | 26.3% | UBER 81% · CAR 26% · LYFT -70% |
| Diversified Support Services ← | 33 | 10.2% | 29.6% | 25.3% | LIME 3445% · TH 417% · WLFC 351% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 9.4% | 55.2% | 19.4% | POWL 2263% · BE 1266% · VRT 882% |
| Building Products | 33 | -14.6% | 2.9% | 17.9% | LMB 636% · GFF 375% · PPIH 284% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 7.1% | 1.9% | 7.8% | RCMT 397% · CSW 133% · CSL 73% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -9.4% | 21.1% | -4.0% | CECO 875% · NVRI 372% · ADUR 372% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 9.9% | 6.5% | -6.9% | BLBD 207% · DE 106% · GENC 47% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -10.3% | -23.5% | -7.9% | HURN 201% · CRAI 91% · GRNQ 57% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.4% | -13.1% | -23.7% | EXLS 47% · BR 10% · G -23% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.1% | 0.8% | -30.0% | LTM 3083% · UAL 140% · SKYW 109% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 7.0% | 24.6% | -32.0% | PBI 200% · TILE 141% · HNI 47% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 5.8% | -19.7% | -38.1% | BBSI 88% · ADP 56% · PAYX 26% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -8.2% | -22.6% | -38.3% | CHRW 97% · FDX 65% · EXPD 62% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -30.3% | 11.4% | -39.7% | CIX 162% · MG 107% · NL 59% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -72.2% | -79.7% | -58.1% | JOBY -29% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 31.26 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.5 |
| Rev LTM | 2,484 |
| Op Inc LTM | 247 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 133 |
| CFO LTM | 200 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 239 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 24.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety | 2,069 | 1,817 | 1,731 | 1,684 | 1,694 |
| Community | 123 | 119 | 115 | 103 | 99 |
| Properties | 19 | 26 | 50 | 58 | 69 |
| Other revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2,211 | 1,962 | 1,897 | 1,845 | 1,863 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety | 483 | 434 | 375 | 370 | 457 |
| Community | 27 | 22 | 23 | 17 | 18 |
| Properties | 9 | 12 | 36 | 44 | 51 |
| Other revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other operating expense | -0 | -0 | -0 | -1 | -0 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -129 | -128 | -127 | -128 | -135 |
| General and administrative | -170 | -152 | -136 | -128 | -136 |
| Total | 220 | 188 | 171 | 176 | 255 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safety | 2,557 | 2,147 | 2,284 | 2,433 | 2,532 |
| Properties | 302 | 387 | 403 | 363 | 353 |
| Community | 203 | 205 | 213 | 216 | 233 |
| Corporate and other | 195 | 193 | 205 | 232 | 381 |
| Total | 3,257 | 2,932 | 3,105 | 3,245 | 3,499 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $35.38 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/15/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $32.09 | $23.52 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.3% | 50.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.8% | 39.2% |
| Downside Capture | -153.55 | -3.98 |
| Upside Capture | -15.97 | 58.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -1.5% | 14.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.24 | -0.02 | -0.17 | 0.26 | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| Up Beta | -0.08 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | 1.35 | 3.13 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.88 | 0.69 |
| Up Capture | -90% | -50% | 50% | 84% | 50% | 65% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 21 | 41 | 70 | 131 | 379 |
| Down Capture | -495% | -158% | -228% | -77% | 5% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 20 | 22 | 55 | 117 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 68.0% | 39.1% | 1.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.6% | 17.2% | 0.52 | 14.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.3% | 12.8% | 0.90 | 14.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 29.3% | 0.55 | 5.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 20.6% | 1.82 | -6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 13.5% | 0.13 | 11.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.1% | 43.8% | -0.79 | 11.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 28.6% | 43.4% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.1% | 17.6% | 0.52 | 32.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 29.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.80 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.5% | 0.47 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.8% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 25.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.7% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 20.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 11.1% | 48.0% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 20.1% | 0.57 | 42.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 36.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 2.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.6% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 39.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.4% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 12.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 3.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.1% | -2.7% | 9.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.5% | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.9% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.6% | -4.6% | -2.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 6.3% | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | 25.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -4.6% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 22.4% | 28.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -24.5% | -14.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 3.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.1% | -2.7% | 9.6% |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.5% | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.9% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.6% | -4.6% | -2.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 6.3% | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | 25.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| 5/9/2024 | 0.8% | -3.0% | 0.4% |
| 2/9/2024 | -1.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
| 11/7/2023 | 5.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% |
| 8/8/2023 | 5.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% |
| 2/9/2023 | 13.1% | 7.3% | -5.0% |
| 11/3/2022 | 5.5% | 9.8% | 28.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | -4.8% | -12.8% | -12.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | -12.7% | -24.5% | -9.5% |
| 2/10/2022 | -3.7% | -2.2% | -12.0% |
| 11/9/2021 | 1.6% | 18.8% | 4.0% |
| 8/10/2021 | -1.3% | -1.3% | -14.1% |
| 5/6/2021 | -4.6% | -6.9% | 8.9% |
| 2/11/2021 | -2.9% | -11.5% | 8.5% |
| 11/5/2020 | -4.3% | 1.9% | 21.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -4.6% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 22.4% | 28.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -24.5% | -14.1% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.59 | 2.63 | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.63 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Normalized FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.61 | 2.65 | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.65 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Prairie Facility Annual Revenue | Reported | 75.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 2.22 Bil | 2.23 Bil | 390.3% | Raised | Guidance: 455.30 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 440.50 Mil | 443.00 Mil | -3.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 457.80 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 1.50 Bil | 1.51 Bil | 885.7% | Raised | Guidance: 152.80 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 161.50 Mil | 165.50 Mil | 7.1% | Raised | Guidance: 154.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 15 | 15.1 | 867.9% | Raised | Guidance: 1.56 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.62 | 1.66 | 5.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.58 for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.58 | 2.63 | 2.68 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.59 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Normalized FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.6 | 2.65 | 2.7 | ||||
| 2026 CSP Acquisition Contribution | Reported | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||||
| 2026 Midwest Regional Reception Center Contribution | Reported | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ||||
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 451.30 Mil | 455.30 Mil | 459.30 Mil | 3.2% | Raised | Guidance: 441.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 453.80 Mil | 457.80 Mil | 461.80 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 147.80 Mil | 152.80 Mil | 157.80 Mil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 152.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 149.50 Mil | 154.50 Mil | 159.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.51 | 1.56 | 1.61 | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.54 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.63 | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures (Real Estate) | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures (Other/IT) | Reported | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures (Facility Activations) | Reported | 40.00 Mil | 42.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 2.54 | 2.59 | 2.64 | 32.8% | Higher New | Actual: 1.95 for 2025 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | Reported | 437.00 Mil | 441.00 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 24.0% | Higher New | Actual: 355.70 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 147.50 Mil | 152.50 Mil | 157.50 Mil | 38.6% | Higher New | Actual: 110.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 51.0% | Higher New | Actual: 1.02 for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 FFO per diluted share | Reported | 1.92 | 1.95 | 1.98 | ||||
| 2025 Normalized FFO per diluted share | Reported | 1.94 | 1.97 | 2 | ||||
| 2025 EBITDA | Reported | 353.70 Mil | 355.70 Mil | 357.70 Mil | -3.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 369.30 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 355.00 Mil | 357.00 Mil | 359.00 Mil | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 368.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income | Reported | 107.00 Mil | 110.00 Mil | 113.00 Mil | -8.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 120.40 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Net Income | Reported | 108.00 Mil | 111.00 Mil | 114.00 Mil | -7.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 119.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Diluted EPS | Reported | 0.99 | 1.02 | 1.05 | -8.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.11 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 1 | 1.03 | 1.06 | -6.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.1 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swenson, Daren | EVP, Chief Corr & Reentry Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 34.85 | 20,000 | 697,000 | 4,971,910 | Form |
| 2 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 32.44 | 12,500 | 405,500 | 5,786,745 | Form |
| 3 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 34.25 | 7,436 | 254,683 | 5,389,100 | Form |
| 4 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 33.96 | 50,000 | 1,698,000 | 9,962,268 | Form |
| 5 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 34.00 | 22,298 | 758,132 | 275,332 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swenson, Daren | EVP, Chief Corr & Reentry Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 9112026 | 34.85 | 20,000 | 697,000 | 4,971,910 | Form |
| 2 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 32.44 | 12,500 | 405,500 | 5,786,745 | Form |
| 3 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8252026 | 34.25 | 7,436 | 254,683 | 5,389,100 | Form |
| 4 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 33.96 | 50,000 | 1,698,000 | 9,962,268 | Form |
| 5 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 34.00 | 22,298 | 758,132 | 275,332 | Form | |
| 6 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 33.54 | 40,000 | 1,341,560 | 1,019,451 | Form | |
| 7 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 33.76 | 50,000 | 1,688,235 | 11,593,211 | Form |
| 8 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 33.61 | 29,199 | 981,448 | 5,538,718 | Form |
| 9 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 32.21 | 30,000 | 966,300 | 2,267,455 | Form | |
| 10 | Lappin, Harley G | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 32.69 | 3,000 | 98,070 | 1,645,222 | Form | |
| 11 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 34.00 | 801 | 27,234 | 6,595,354 | Form |
| 12 | Lappin, Harley G | Direct | Sell | 8142026 | 33.02 | 22,032 | 727,497 | 1,760,891 | Form | |
| 13 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 34.03 | 491 | 16,709 | 13,385,803 | Form |
| 14 | Marshall, Thurgood JR | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 34.00 | 7,100 | 241,400 | 1,539,316 | Form | |
| 15 | Garfinkle, David | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 34.27 | 3,170 | 108,636 | 13,517,596 | Form |
| 16 | Murphy, Devin Ignatius | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 33.79 | 8,098 | 273,631 | 2,156,681 | Form | |
| 17 | Mayberry, Lucibeth | EVP, Chief Innovation Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 33.29 | 120,000 | 3,994,800 | 4,971,162 | Form |
| 18 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 8032026 | 29.74 | 12,500 | 371,750 | 5,676,860 | Form |
| 19 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 30.46 | 12,500 | 380,750 | 6,195,046 | Form |
| 20 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 21.00 | 12,500 | 262,500 | 4,533,543 | Form |
| 21 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 20.64 | 12,500 | 258,000 | 4,713,825 | Form |
| 22 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 18.94 | 12,500 | 236,750 | 4,562,324 | Form |
| 23 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 17.62 | 12,500 | 220,250 | 4,464,608 | Form |
| 24 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 22.52 | 8,000 | 180,168 | 2,261,018 | Form | |
| 25 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 21.18 | 22,500 | 476,438 | 2,870,462 | Form |
| 26 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 19.71 | 12,500 | 246,424 | 3,115,959 | Form |
| 27 | Marshall, Thurgood JR | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 20.52 | 6,000 | 123,120 | 903,352 | Form | |
| 28 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 19.65 | 10,000 | 196,482 | 3,351,177 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 16, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Diversified Support Services Resources |
| Facilities Management Journal (FMJ) |
| Supply Chain Brain |
| Corporate Services News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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