CoreCivic (CXW)
Market Price (5/19/2026): $21.02 | Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
CoreCivic (CXW)
Market Price (5/19/2026): $21.02Market Cap: $2.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57% Key risksCXW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government contracts vulnerable to political and legislative changes, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -3.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 57% |
| Key risksCXW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on government contracts vulnerable to political and legislative changes, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong First Quarter 2026 Financial Performance and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook. CoreCivic reported robust first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.40, significantly exceeding analyst estimates of $0.28, representing a 42.86% beat. Revenue for the quarter reached $614.7 million, surpassing estimates of $604.37 million and marking a 25.8% increase year-over-year. Net income also saw a substantial rise of 51% year-over-year to $37.9 million. Following this strong performance, CoreCivic raised its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted diluted EPS to be between $1.53 and $1.63, up from the prior guidance of $1.49 to $1.59, and adjusted EBITDA to be $453.8 million to $461.8 million, an increase from $437 million to $445 million.
2. Increased Demand from Federal Immigration Authorities and Facility Activations. A primary driver of CoreCivic's growth was a significant increase in demand from federal partners, particularly U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and the U.S. Marshals Service. Federal partners accounted for 58% of total revenue in the first quarter of 2026, with revenue from these partners increasing by 48% compared to the prior year. Specifically, ICE revenue surged 96.2% year-over-year to $128.1 million. This increased demand was bolstered by the activation of four previously idled facilities since the first quarter of 2025, including the California City, West Tennessee, Midwest, and Farmville facilities, which are estimated to generate approximately $500 million in annual revenue. Nationwide ICE detention populations were at historic highs of around 70,800 individuals in late January 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.4% change in CXW stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 12.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.53 | 21.02 | 13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,087 | 2,337 | 12.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.1 | 16.0 | -11.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 99 | 8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 20.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.5% | 18.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.4% change in CXW stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.53 | 21.02 | 13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,998 | 2,337 | 17.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.3 | 16.0 | -17.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 109 | 99 | 10.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.9% | 23.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.8% | 19.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.2% change in CXW stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -55.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 22.64 | 21.02 | -7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,962 | 2,337 | 19.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.5% | 5.5% | 57.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.2 | 16.0 | -55.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 110 | 99 | 11.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | -7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 34.7% | 21.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 31.9% | 20.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 139.1% change in CXW stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 94.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.79 | 21.02 | 139.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,845 | 2,337 | 26.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.6% | 5.5% | -16.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.3 | 16.0 | 94.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 115 | 99 | 16.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 139.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CXW | 139.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.5% | 26.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 78.6% | 29.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CXW Return | 52% | 16% | 26% | 50% | -12% | 9% | 217% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 4% | 0% | 75% | -31% | 28% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CXW Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 38% | 54% | 50% | 42% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CXW Max Drawdown | -30% | -36% | -28% | -31% | -30% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -35% | -39% | -28% | -45% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GEO, DEA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CXW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 15 days |
In The Past
CoreCivic's stock fell -5.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CXW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 180 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 89 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 200.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1138 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1808 days | 47 days |
In The Past
CoreCivic's stock fell -5.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CoreCivic (CXW)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe CoreCivic (CXW):
- Think of it like an HCA Healthcare, but for prisons, detention centers, and residential reentry facilities instead of hospitals.
- It's similar to G4S (a global security firm), but specialized in owning and operating correctional and detention facilities exclusively for U.S. government partners.
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- Correctional and Detention Facility Management: Manages and operates correctional and detention facilities for government partners.
- Residential Reentry Center Operations: Operates a network of residential reentry centers designed to help individuals transition back into society and reduce recidivism.
- Government Real Estate Solutions: Provides government partners with real estate solutions by owning properties for lease.
- Inmate and Resident Rehabilitation Programs: Offers a range of rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, life skills, employment training, and substance abuse treatment, within its facilities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CoreCivic (CXW) primarily sells its services to various government agencies, not to other companies or individuals. Its major customers include:
- Federal Government Agencies:
- U.S. Marshals Service (USMS)
- Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
- Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP)
- State Governments: Various state departments of corrections and other state agencies across the United States.
- Local Governments: County and municipal entities seeking correctional, detention, or residential reentry solutions.
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Patrick D. Swindle, President and Chief Executive Officer
Patrick D. Swindle was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of CoreCivic, effective January 1, 2026. He previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer from January 1, 2025. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007, holding various leadership positions including Managing Director, Treasury; Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer; and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to his tenure at CoreCivic, he spent ten years in equity research, working at SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., and Avondale Partners, LLC.
David Garfinkle, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
David Garfinkle serves as CoreCivic's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. He has been with the company for nearly 20 years, serving as CFO for approximately six to seven years as of February 2021.
Daren Swenson, Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer
Daren Swenson was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections and Reentry Officer, effective January 1, 2026, overseeing the operations for CoreCivic's corrections, detention, and reentry facilities. He began his career with CoreCivic in 1992 as a Correctional Sergeant and has since held multiple leadership roles, including Warden, Managing Director, Vice President, and Senior Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer.
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The key risks to CoreCivic's business are:-
Regulatory and Political Risks
CoreCivic faces significant risks due to the highly regulated nature of its industry and its heavy reliance on government contracts. Changes in political administrations, legislative actions, and public sentiment can directly impact the company's ability to obtain new contracts, renew existing ones, or even continue operations in certain areas. For example, presidential executive orders or state-level legislation restricting private correctional or detention facilities can lead to contract non-renewals and reduced demand. The company's business model is substantially dependent on federal and state government demand for correctional, detention, and residential reentry services.
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Reputational Risks and Litigation
The company operates in an industry subject to intense public scrutiny, leading to significant reputational risks. CoreCivic faces ongoing legal and social challenges stemming from allegations of inhumane conditions, understaffing, violence, medical negligence, and other operational deficiencies within its facilities. These issues often result in class-action lawsuits, federal investigations, and negative publicity, which can increase operational costs, damage relationships with government partners, and potentially lead to contract terminations or difficulties in securing new business.
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High Level of Indebtedness and Occupancy Fluctuations
CoreCivic carries a notable level of debt, which can limit its financial flexibility and its capacity to adapt to market changes or invest in growth opportunities. Furthermore, the company's revenue and profitability are largely dependent on the occupancy levels of its facilities, as a significant portion of its income is derived from per diem payments. Fluctuations in inmate populations or changes in government policies affecting detention numbers can directly impact occupancy rates, leading to revenue volatility and affecting the company's financial performance.
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Here are the addressable market sizes for CoreCivic's main products or services in the United States:CoreCivic Safety (Corrections and Detention Management)
The private correctional facilities market in the United States generates approximately $4 billion to $7.4 billion in revenue per year. North America, driven primarily by the United States, holds the largest share of the global private prison service market, which was valued at approximately USD 8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 12.5 billion by 2032. The broader correctional facilities industry in the U.S. had an estimated revenue of $9.0 billion in 2025.CoreCivic Community (Residential Reentry Centers)
While a specific market size in USD for residential reentry centers is not readily available, these programs are considered a growing niche within the broader criminal justice system. Approximately 5 million people in the U.S. are under some form of criminal justice supervision, such as probation or parole, creating demand for services like reentry programs and community corrections provided by companies like CoreCivic. The global correctional system market, which includes rehabilitation and reintegration efforts, is anticipated to grow from USD 4.85 billion to USD 9.40 billion by 2033, driven in part by recidivism reduction initiatives.CoreCivic Properties (Government Real Estate Solutions)
A distinct addressable market size for CoreCivic's specific "government real estate solutions" beyond their correctional facilities is not precisely quantifiable from the available data. However, these services operate within the much larger U.S. real estate market. The overall U.S. real estate market was valued at USD 3.43 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 4.52 trillion by 2034. The U.S. office real estate market, a segment of the broader real estate market, was valued at USD 369.58 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 447.86 billion by 2031.AI Analysis | Feedback
Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for CoreCivic (CXW)
CoreCivic (CXW) is anticipated to experience revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors stemming from its partnerships with federal, state, and local governments.
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Increased Demand and Contracts from Federal Partners, Particularly ICE: CoreCivic expects continued significant demand from federal government partners, especially U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The company has secured new contracts and contract modifications to house immigration detainees, with management anticipating further growth in detainee populations. For example, CoreCivic announced contract modifications to add capacity for ICE detainees at multiple facilities in February 2025.
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Activation of Idle Facilities and Higher Occupancy Rates: CoreCivic has a supply of available beds in currently idle facilities. The company is actively reactivating some of these facilities and has seen increased occupancy across its Safety and Community segments. This strategy directly contributes to higher revenue as more beds are utilized. The full activation of facilities like the Dilley Immigration Processing Center in 2025 and ongoing start-up activities at California City and Diamondback facilities are expected to drive growth.
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New and Expanded Contracts with State and Local Governments: Beyond federal agreements, CoreCivic continues to expand its relationships with state and local government partners. The company has secured new management contracts with various states, such as Montana and Wyoming, and counties like Hines County, Mississippi, and Harris County, Texas, which contribute to its revenue growth.
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Per Diem Rate Increases: CoreCivic has successfully negotiated per diem rate increases with its government partners. These increases, particularly from state customers who often implement them at the start of their fiscal years (typically July), help offset inflationary costs and enhance revenue per mandate.
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Share Repurchases
- CoreCivic's Board of Directors authorized an increase of $200 million to its existing share repurchase program on November 10, 2025, raising the total authorization to $700 million.
- Since the program's inception in May 2022 through November 7, 2025, the company repurchased 21.5 million shares for an aggregate cost of $322.1 million, at an average price of $14.98 per share.
- As of November 7, 2025, $377.9 million remained available under the share repurchase authorization.
Capital Expenditures
- For 2026, CoreCivic anticipates capital expenditures of $30.0 million to $35.0 million for real estate maintenance, $30.0 million to $35.0 million for other asset and information technology maintenance, and $15.0 million for other capital investments.
- In 2025, the company expected to invest $29.0 million to $31.0 million in maintenance capital expenditures on real estate assets, $31.0 million to $34.0 million for maintenance capital expenditures on other assets and information technology, and $6.0 million to $7.0 million for other capital investments. Additionally, $35.0 million to $40.0 million was earmarked for activating previously idle facilities.
- CoreCivic projected capital expenditures between $70.0 million and $76.0 million for 2024, which included amounts for maintenance on real estate assets, other assets and information technology, and costs to prepare an idle facility for potential activation.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CXW.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 12312022 | CXW | CoreCivic | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -18.6% | 25.7% | -27.9% |
| 06302020 | CXW | CoreCivic | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.0% | 11.9% | -36.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 22.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,337 |
| Op Inc LTM | 243 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 108 |
| CFO LTM | 164 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 207 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 9.4 |
| P/EBIT | 8.6 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.7 |
| Total Yield | 8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 137.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 44.9% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $21.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/15/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $19.93 | $19.29 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 5.5% | 9.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 47.3% | 37.0% |
| Downside Capture | 67.82 | 106.11 |
| Upside Capture | 85.91 | 72.01 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 19.1% | 23.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.14 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| Up Beta | -0.28 | -0.60 | -0.55 | -0.09 | 0.15 | 0.76 |
| Down Beta | -0.47 | 0.03 | 0.52 | 0.99 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| Up Capture | 62% | 151% | 111% | 95% | 41% | 70% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 31 | 63 | 120 | 373 |
| Down Capture | 207% | 93% | 83% | 88% | 96% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 33 | 61 | 129 | 368 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | -10.5% | 36.5% | -0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 21.8% | 15.4% | 1.08 | 23.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.7% | 12.1% | 1.66 | 25.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.7% | 26.8% | 1.25 | 0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.8% | 18.5% | 1.97 | -11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.8% | 13.4% | 0.52 | 25.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.9% | 41.9% | -0.54 | 12.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | 19.9% | 44.3% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.2% | 17.4% | 0.54 | 32.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.1% | 0.64 | 30.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.5% | 17.9% | 0.88 | 0.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.8% | 19.4% | 0.44 | 6.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 26.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.9% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 21.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CXW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXW | -1.8% | 49.1% | 0.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 41.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.74 | 36.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.2% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 1.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.9% | 0.39 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 39.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.3% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 12.1% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.1% | -2.7% | |
| 2/11/2026 | -3.5% | 0.9% | -1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | -9.9% | -8.4% | -0.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 2.0% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.6% | -4.6% | -2.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 6.3% | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| 11/6/2024 | 25.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -6.0% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 22.4% | 28.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -24.5% | -14.1% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Income | 147.80 Mil | 152.80 Mil | 157.80 Mil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 152.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | 1.51 | 1.56 | 1.61 | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 1.54 for 2026 | |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | 2.58 | 2.63 | 2.68 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.59 for 2026 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | 451.30 Mil | 455.30 Mil | 459.30 Mil | 3.2% | Raised | Guidance: 441.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 149.50 Mil | 154.50 Mil | 159.50 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.63 | ||||
| 2026 Normalized FFO per diluted share | 2.6 | 2.65 | 2.7 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 453.80 Mil | 457.80 Mil | 461.80 Mil | ||||
| 2026 CSP Acquisition Contribution | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||||
| 2026 Midwest Regional Reception Center Contribution | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures (Real Estate) | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Maintenance Capital Expenditures (Other/IT) | 30.00 Mil | 32.50 Mil | 35.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures (Facility Activations) | 40.00 Mil | 42.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Income | 147.50 Mil | 152.50 Mil | 157.50 Mil | 38.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 110.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 1.49 | 1.54 | 1.59 | 51.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.02 for 2025 | |
| 2026 FFO per diluted share | 2.54 | 2.59 | 2.64 | 32.8% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.95 for 2025 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | 437.00 Mil | 441.00 Mil | 445.00 Mil | 24.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 355.70 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 5012026 | 20.64 | 12,500 | 258,000 | 4,713,825 | Form |
| 2 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 18.94 | 12,500 | 236,750 | 4,562,324 | Form |
| 3 | Carter,, Cole G | Chief Administrative Officer | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 17.62 | 12,500 | 220,250 | 4,464,608 | Form |
| 4 | Prann, John R JR | Direct | Sell | 1122026 | 22.52 | 8,000 | 180,168 | 2,261,018 | Form | |
| 5 | Grande, Anthony L | EVP, Chief Development Officer | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 21.18 | 22,500 | 476,438 | 2,870,462 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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