Clearwater Analytics (CWAN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.5 | Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Clearwater Analytics (CWAN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $21.5Market Cap: $6.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 2193x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -39% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), and Wealth Management Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -54% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 2193x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CWAN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Potential Takeover Interest. Reports emerged in mid-November 2025 that private equity firms Warburg Pincus and Permira were in talks to acquire Clearwater Analytics, leading to an increase in the stock price. The stock posted a significant 8.53% return over the week ending November 18, 2025, following these reports.
2. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. Clearwater Analytics released its third-quarter earnings on November 5, 2025. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.16. However, revenue for the quarter was $205.11 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $203.66 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CWAN Return | - | - | -18% | 7% | 37% | -24% | -8% |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 836% | 1483% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CWAN Win Rate | - | 33% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CWAN Max Drawdown | - | - | -48% | -27% | -21% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CWAN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 839 days | 464 days |
Compare to ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC
In The Past
Clearwater Analytics's stock fell -54.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -54.2% loss requires a 118.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CWAN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Clearwater Analytics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 5.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| Rev LTM | 640 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1 |
| FCF LTM | 169 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 201 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 21.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.1 |
| P/S | 8.1 |
| P/EBIT | 46.7 |
| P/E | 35.8 |
| P/CFO | 34.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -27.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 33.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -44.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |