Tearsheet

Confluent (CFLT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $30.005 | Market Cap: $10.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Confluent (CFLT)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $30.005
Market Cap: $10.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 119x
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6%
3   Key risks
CFLT key risks include [1] an uncertain path to sustainable profitability due to significant ongoing losses and heavy spending, Show more.
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 119x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6%
6 Key risks
CFLT key risks include [1] an uncertain path to sustainable profitability due to significant ongoing losses and heavy spending, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CFLT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the movement of Confluent (CFLT) stock for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:



1. IBM Acquisition Announcement: Confluent's stock surged significantly on December 8, 2025, after IBM announced a definitive agreement to acquire all outstanding shares of Confluent for $31 cash per share, valuing the company at $11 billion. This news alone caused the stock to jump nearly 30% that day and sent its year-to-date share price into positive territory for 2025.

2. Strategic Importance for AI: IBM highlighted Confluent's expertise in preparing data for AI, emphasizing its role in keeping data clean and connected across systems and applications. IBM stated that bringing Confluent in-house would provide a "smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI," boosting IBM's artificial intelligence business. Confluent's total addressable market had doubled over the previous four years, reaching approximately $100 billion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CFLT Return-71%5%19%7%
Peers Return44%-47%60%18%24%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CFLT Win Rate67%33%42%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate57%67%27%65%53%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CFLT Max Drawdown-77%-27%-20%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-52%-8%-14%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, SNOW, DDOG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFLTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven474.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

Confluent's stock fell -82.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -82.6% loss requires a 474.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Confluent (CFLT)

Better Bets than Confluent (CFLT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CFLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
10.4%10.4%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.7%10.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.2%12.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
13.6%13.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Confluent

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
Mkt Price30.00221.27476.12296.72216.29136.71218.78
Mkt Cap10.42,353.63,539.03,586.276.647.71,215.1
Rev LTM1,113670,038293,812385,4774,3873,212149,099
Op Inc LTM-38776,190135,937124,077-1,504-4338,074
FCF LTM3213,48178,01773,5527698657,173
FCF 3Y Avg-4821,67771,30268,99873169811,204
CFO LTM57121,137147,039151,42487498861,063
CFO 3Y Avg-2596,977121,384120,99082278948,899

Growth & Margins

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
Rev Chg LTM21.6%10.9%15.6%13.4%28.5%26.6%18.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.6%11.3%13.2%11.0%33.2%28.0%20.4%
Rev Chg Q19.3%13.3%18.4%15.9%28.7%28.4%18.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%3.0%4.3%3.8%6.6%6.5%4.4%
Op Mgn LTM-34.7%11.4%46.3%32.2%-34.3%-1.3%5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-47.7%7.9%44.6%29.9%-38.0%-1.1%3.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%0.3%0.6%-0.5%3.1%-0.8%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM5.2%18.1%50.0%39.3%19.9%30.8%25.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-4.4%15.8%47.2%35.3%24.3%30.3%27.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.8%2.0%26.6%19.1%17.5%26.9%18.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.9%3.5%28.0%20.5%21.6%26.8%21.1%

Valuation

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
Mkt Cap10.42,353.63,539.03,586.276.647.71,215.1
P/S6.23.513.17.617.515.510.4
P/EBIT-17.727.429.619.3-363.527.4
P/E-22.533.136.723.6-56.8465.028.4
P/CFO119.519.326.219.487.750.238.2
Total Yield-4.4%3.0%3.4%4.6%-1.8%0.2%1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.5%1.1%2.3%3.3%-1.8%1.8%
D/E0.20.10.00.0-0.00.0
Net D/E-0.10.0-0.0-0.0--0.1-0.0

Returns

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
1M Rtn32.4%-5.0%-6.2%4.2%-14.4%-24.2%-5.6%
3M Rtn53.2%-4.5%-6.5%19.0%-0.8%1.8%0.5%
6M Rtn25.4%4.1%-0.5%71.5%2.0%5.1%4.6%
12M Rtn-4.3%-4.3%5.5%52.4%26.6%-12.9%0.6%
3Y Rtn30.4%151.8%99.2%231.2%51.8%75.7%87.4%
1M Excs Rtn31.7%-5.7%-6.9%3.4%-15.2%-24.9%-6.3%
3M Excs Rtn47.2%-5.7%-7.5%16.5%-4.0%-1.4%-2.7%
6M Excs Rtn13.0%-8.3%-12.9%59.1%-10.4%-7.3%-7.8%
12M Excs Rtn-12.7%-13.8%-3.8%45.9%17.9%-21.7%-8.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.6%75.9%24.6%152.0%-25.1%9.1%16.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment777   
Confluent Cloud 2119431
Confluent Platform - License 766949
Confluent Platform - Post-contract Customer Support, Maintenance and Upgrades (PCS) 248184128
Services 514128
Total777586388237


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity19,049,101
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.4%
Average Daily Volume5,086,466
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.75
Basic Shares Quantity346,197,913
Short % of Basic Shares5.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/20257.6%6.2%-1.1%
7/30/2025-32.9%-34.7%-24.1%
4/30/2025-18.4%-14.2%-3.3%
2/11/202525.1%10.4%-14.3%
10/30/202413.4%17.6%33.7%
7/31/2024-17.5%-24.1%-16.5%
5/7/202412.8%10.2%-6.8%
2/7/202434.1%39.5%34.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11117
# Negative7711
Median Positive13.4%11.8%33.7%
Median Negative-18.4%-28.5%-14.3%
Max Positive34.1%39.5%73.1%
Max Negative-42.1%-36.7%-58.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021