Tearsheet

Confluent (CFLT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.6 | Market Cap: $8.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Confluent (CFLT)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.6
Market Cap: $8.2 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 119x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 119x
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CFLT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Confluent (CFLT) stock experienced a 19.1% increase, driven by several key developments:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Confluent reported robust Q3 2025 results on October 27, 2025, with adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.10. Revenue also surpassed estimates, reaching $298.52 million with a 19.3% year-over-year increase. Confluent Cloud revenue notably grew by 24% year-over-year.

2. Reports of Potential Sale and Acquisition Interest: In early October 2025, reports emerged that Confluent was exploring a potential sale after receiving acquisition interest from private equity firms and technology companies. This news led to a significant surge in the stock price, with some analysts highlighting Confluent's strategic value in the AI ecosystem as a key driver for potential acquirers.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CFLT Return---71%5%19%-18%-70%
Peers Return13%13%-38%33%-9%-8%-11%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CFLT Win Rate-67%33%42%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate23%40%30%45%45%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CFLT Max Drawdown---77%-27%-20%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-8%-1%-42%-20%-26%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFLTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven474.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW


In The Past

Confluent's stock fell -82.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -82.6% loss requires a 474.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Confluent (CFLT)

Better Bets than Confluent (CFLT)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CFLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Confluent

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CFLTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameConfluentGen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Price23.6527.1914.8616.96-9.8016.96
Mkt Cap8.216.78.05.6--8.1
Rev LTM1,1134,4731,497907--1,305
Op Inc LTM-3871,697-46-328---187
FCF LTM321,30031017--171
FCF 3Y Avg-481,463268-44--112
CFO LTM571,32433541--196
CFO 3Y Avg-251,480282-22--130

Growth & Margins

CFLTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameConfluentGen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Rev Chg LTM21.6%16.2%8.3%25.4%--18.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.6%16.5%14.6%45.6%--22.0%
Rev Chg Q19.3%25.3%14.4%21.7%--20.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%5.8%3.1%5.0%--4.8%
Op Mgn LTM-34.7%37.9%-3.1%-36.2%---18.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-47.7%36.7%-12.6%-53.2%---30.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%-1.3%5.8%2.1%--2.3%
CFO/Rev LTM5.2%29.6%22.4%4.5%--13.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-4.4%37.1%20.7%-5.5%--8.1%
FCF/Rev LTM2.8%29.1%20.7%1.8%--11.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.9%36.7%19.6%-8.7%--6.4%

Valuation

CFLTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameConfluentGen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
Mkt Cap8.216.78.05.6--8.1
P/S6.23.94.66.7--5.4
P/EBIT-17.710.9-148.1-19.8---18.8
P/E-22.530.7340.3-14.1--8.3
P/CFO119.513.220.5148.8--70.0
Total Yield-4.4%5.0%0.3%-7.1%---2.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.5%9.5%3.6%-1.0%--1.6%
D/E0.20.50.00.0--0.1
Net D/E-0.10.5-0.2-0.1---0.1

Returns

CFLTGENPATHSVRNTCHOWMedian
NameConfluentGen Digi.UiPath Sentinel.Verint S.ChowChow. 
1M Rtn0.9%3.9%-6.4%-4.1%-11.4%0.9%
3M Rtn23.0%-7.9%36.6%-5.9%--8.6%
6M Rtn-0.4%-5.7%13.9%-5.6%---3.0%
12M Rtn-25.0%-10.3%3.3%-38.4%---17.6%
3Y Rtn4.6%21.7%2.3%14.7%--9.7%
1M Excs Rtn0.9%4.0%-6.3%-4.0%-11.4%0.9%
3M Excs Rtn22.1%-12.8%31.6%-11.9%--5.1%
6M Excs Rtn-15.1%-20.4%-0.9%-20.3%---17.7%
12M Excs Rtn-36.9%-23.9%-9.0%-52.9%---30.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-65.3%-47.0%-49.8%-67.2%---57.5%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,344,407
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.4%
Average Daily Volume6,373,942
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.19
Basic Shares Quantity346,197,913
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021