Confluent (CFLT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.6 | Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Confluent (CFLT)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $23.6Market Cap: $8.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 119x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 119x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CFLT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, Confluent (CFLT) stock experienced a 19.1% increase, driven by several key developments:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Confluent reported robust Q3 2025 results on October 27, 2025, with adjusted earnings of $0.13 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.10. Revenue also surpassed estimates, reaching $298.52 million with a 19.3% year-over-year increase. Confluent Cloud revenue notably grew by 24% year-over-year.
2. Reports of Potential Sale and Acquisition Interest: In early October 2025, reports emerged that Confluent was exploring a potential sale after receiving acquisition interest from private equity firms and technology companies. This news led to a significant surge in the stock price, with some analysts highlighting Confluent's strategic value in the AI ecosystem as a key driver for potential acquirers.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CFLT Return | - | - | -71% | 5% | 19% | -18% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 13% | -38% | 33% | -9% | -8% | -11% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CFLT Win Rate | - | 67% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 23% | 40% | 30% | 45% | 45% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CFLT Max Drawdown | - | - | -77% | -27% | -20% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -1% | -42% | -20% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CFLT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 474.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to GEN, PATH, S, VRNT, CHOW
In The Past
Confluent's stock fell -82.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -82.6% loss requires a 474.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CFLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Confluent
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,305 |
| Op Inc LTM | -187 |
| FCF LTM | 171 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 112 |
| CFO LTM | 196 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -30.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.1 |
| P/S | 5.4 |
| P/EBIT | -18.8 |
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/CFO | 70.0 |
| Total Yield | -2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 9.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -57.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10272025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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