Tearsheet

Confluent (CFLT)


Market Price (12/25/2025): $29.95 | Market Cap: $10.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software

Confluent (CFLT)


Market Price (12/25/2025): $29.95
Market Cap: $10.4 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Systems Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 182x
2   Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.1%
4   Key risks
CFLT key risks include [1] an uncertain path to sustainable profitability due to significant ongoing losses and heavy spending, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -20%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -43%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -387 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -35%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 182x
4 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.1%
6 Key risks
CFLT key risks include [1] an uncertain path to sustainable profitability due to significant ongoing losses and heavy spending, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CFLT Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

For the public company Confluent (CFLT), key factors influencing its stock performance in the approximate period leading up to late 2025 include: **1. Strong Q4 2024 Earnings Beat and Positive 2025 Outlook.** Confluent reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing market expectations with $261 million in revenue and adjusted earnings of $0.09 per share, which exceeded analyst estimates of $257 million and $0.06 per share, respectively. This strong performance contributed to a significant surge in shares following the announcement. Furthermore, the company provided an optimistic outlook for fiscal year 2025, projecting total revenue between $1.117 billion and $1.121 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share.

**2. Robust Confluent Cloud Revenue Growth and Consumption Model Success.** Confluent Cloud, the company's fully managed cloud-native service, continued to be a significant growth driver, with its revenue increasing by 38% year-over-year in Q4 2024. By the first quarter of 2025, cloud-based revenues constituted 55% of the company's subscription revenues, indicating the successful adoption and scaling of its consumption-driven go-to-market model.

**3. Strategic Partnerships and Expansion into AI and Real-time Data.** Confluent has strategically positioned itself at the forefront of the AI and real-time data trends. The company expanded its partnership with Databricks to empower enterprises with real-time data for AI-driven decision-making, aiming to make its platform the "connective tissue" for AI and GenAI applications. Additionally, a partnership with Jio Platforms was announced to accelerate data streaming in India.

**4. Significant Customer Acquisition and Retention.** Confluent demonstrated strong momentum in expanding its customer base. The company recorded the largest sequential net increase in customers with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $100,000 or more by Q3 2024, alongside an accelerating growth in million-dollar-plus ARR customers. In Q1 2025, net additions of 340 customers marked a new record.

**5. Continuous Product Innovation and Market Leadership.** Confluent has reinforced its market leadership through ongoing product innovation. This includes the acquisition of WarpStream in September 2024 to broaden its data streaming offerings, particularly for bring-your-own-cloud (BYOC) solutions. The company's platform has been recognized for its role as a critical infrastructure provider for real-time analytics and AI, further solidifying its competitive advantage. Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 52.7% change in CFLT stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 48.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
924202512242025Change
Stock Price ($)19.7430.1452.68%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1064.821113.154.54%
P/S Multiple6.339.3748.19%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)341.21346.20-1.46%
Cumulative Contribution52.65%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
CFLT52.7% 
Market (SPY)4.4%21.3%
Sector (XLK)5.1%32.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 26.2% change in CFLT stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 18.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
625202512242025Change
Stock Price ($)23.8930.1426.16%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1017.521113.159.40%
P/S Multiple7.889.3718.91%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)335.76346.20-3.11%
Cumulative Contribution26.04%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
CFLT26.2% 
Market (SPY)14.0%21.7%
Sector (XLK)17.5%30.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 0.4% change in CFLT stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 21.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
1224202412242025Change
Stock Price ($)30.0130.140.43%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)915.611113.1521.58%
P/S Multiple11.359.37-17.39%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)346.20346.200.00%
Cumulative Contribution0.43%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
CFLT0.4% 
Market (SPY)15.8%41.6%
Sector (XLK)22.2%45.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 37.1% change in CFLT stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 107.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
1225202212242025Change
Stock Price ($)21.9930.1437.06%
Change Contribution ByLTMLTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)537.211113.15107.21%
P/S Multiple11.559.37-18.87%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)282.27346.20-22.65%
Cumulative Contribution30.03%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025
ReturnCorrelation
CFLT24.2% 
Market (SPY)48.9%39.3%
Sector (XLK)54.1%42.4%

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CFLT Return��-71%5%19%7%-61%
Peers Return�44%-47%60%18%27%�
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%18%115%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CFLT Win Rate�67%33%42%33%58% 
Peers Win Rate57%67%27%65%53%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CFLT Max Drawdown��-77%-27%-20%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown�-15%-52%-8%-14%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, SNOW, DDOG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCFLTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-82.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven474.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to GWRE, NTNX, AGPU, AIXC, CHOW

In The Past

Confluent's stock fell -82.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/5/2021. A -82.6% loss requires a 474.9% gain to breakeven.

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About Confluent (CFLT)

Confluent, Inc. operates a data streaming platform in the United States and internationally. It offers Confluent Cloud, a managed cloud-native service for connecting and processing data; and Confluent Platform, an enterprise-grade self-managed software that connects and processes data in real-time with the foundational platform for data in motion. It also provides Kafka Connect that enables to build connectors to integrate Apache Kafka with other apps and data systems; ksqlDB, a database for stream processing applications; and stream governance, a solution that is designed for the intricacies of streaming data, which allows teams to expand usage of real-time data without bypassing requirements for risk management and regulatory compliance. In addition, it also offers training and professional services. The company was formerly known as Infinitem, Inc. and changed its name to Confluent, Inc. in September 2014. Confluent, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a couple of brief analogies to describe Confluent:

  • Databricks for real-time data streaming. (Confluent commercializes and enhances Apache Kafka, similar to how Databricks commercializes and enhances Apache Spark for data lakes and analytics.)

  • Red Hat for data streams. (Confluent provides enterprise-grade products and services built around the open-source Apache Kafka, much like Red Hat does for Linux and other open-source enterprise software.)

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Confluent Cloud: A fully managed, cloud-native service for Apache Kafka, enabling organizations to build and scale real-time data streaming applications without operational overhead.
  • Confluent Platform: An enterprise-grade, self-managed software distribution of Apache Kafka for hybrid and on-premises environments, providing advanced features for data governance, security, and management.
  • ksqlDB: A purpose-built streaming database for Apache Kafka that allows developers to build real-time applications and perform stream processing using SQL.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of Confluent (CFLT)

Confluent primarily operates as a business-to-business (B2B) company, providing its real-time data streaming platform based on Apache Kafka to other companies. Its customers span a wide range of industries, including financial services, retail, healthcare, technology, and manufacturing, all seeking to leverage real-time data for operational efficiency, enhanced customer experiences, and new product development.

While Confluent serves thousands of organizations globally and does not publicly disclose a definitive list of *all* its major customers due to the nature of its enterprise software business and client confidentiality, several prominent public companies have been highlighted in Confluent's case studies, earnings calls, or industry reports as significant users of its platform. Some examples include:

  • Capital One (Symbol: COF) - Financial Services
  • Nordstrom (Symbol: JWN) - Retail
  • Expedia Group (Symbol: EXPE) - Travel & Hospitality
  • Humana (Symbol: HUM) - Healthcare
  • Intuit (Symbol: INTU) - Financial Software

These companies utilize Confluent's platform to power various mission-critical applications, from fraud detection and personalized recommendations to supply chain optimization and real-time analytics.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Confluent (CFLT) Major Suppliers:

  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
  • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Jay Kreps, Co-founder & CEO

Jay Kreps co-founded Confluent in 2014. He is also one of the original co-creators of Apache Kafka, an open-source streaming platform, which he developed while serving as a Principal Staff Engineer and technical lead for data systems at LinkedIn from 2007 to 2014. Prior to LinkedIn, he held software engineering roles at NexTag and Movaris. Confluent went public in June 2021.

Rohan Sivaram, Chief Financial Officer

Rohan Sivaram was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Confluent, effective August 16, 2023. He joined Confluent in October 2020 and previously led the company's FP&A, investor relations, treasury, and business operations teams. Before joining Confluent, Sivaram served as Senior Vice President of Finance at Palo Alto Networks for six years, where he contributed to scaling the company's revenue run rate significantly. His career also includes finance leadership roles at Symantec Corporation and Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Ryan Mac Ban, Chief Revenue Officer

Ryan Mac Ban serves as the Chief Revenue Officer at Confluent.

Stephanie Buscemi, Chief Marketing Officer

Stephanie Buscemi joined Confluent in 2021 as Chief Marketing Officer, responsible for marketing strategies and brand growth. She has a rich background with senior marketing leadership roles at Salesforce and SAP, and is also noted for co-authoring "Driven to Perform".

Steve Deasy, Chief Technology Officer

Steve Deasy is the Chief Technology Officer at Confluent.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Key Risks to Confluent (CFLT) Business:
  1. Path to Sustainable Profitability: Confluent continues to report significant GAAP operating and net losses, with a Net Loss of $(345.1) million in fiscal year 2024 and ongoing GAAP losses projected through at least the next three years. Despite high gross margins, the company remains in a high-growth, high-spend phase, investing heavily, leading to concerns about when sustainable profitability will be achieved and how quickly operating leverage will materialize. High stock-based compensation further contributes to these losses.
  2. Competition and Customer Migration to Open-Source/Self-Managed Solutions: Confluent operates in a highly competitive and rapidly evolving market. Its primary competition stems from open-source alternatives like Apache Kafka, the foundational technology Confluent is built upon, and offerings from major cloud service providers, such as Amazon MSK. There is a risk that customers may opt for self-managed solutions or open-source alternatives, directly impacting Confluent's cloud revenue and margins. For instance, in Q3 2025, a significant AI-native customer transitioned from Confluent Cloud to a self-managed solution, which is expected to reduce Q4 cloud revenue.
  3. Customer Cloud Optimization and Revenue Growth Concerns: Customer efforts to optimize cloud spending represent an ongoing operational risk for Confluent, potentially leading to revenue fluctuations and slower growth, particularly for Confluent Cloud. While the company's core investment thesis involves converting customers from its on-premise software to its cloud services, any slowdown or disappointment in cloud revenue growth, or customers choosing self-managed options, could challenge this growth strategy.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Increased Aggressiveness and Ecosystem Integration by Hyperscale Cloud Providers: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are continuously enhancing their native streaming services (e.g., AWS MSK/Kinesis, Azure Event Hubs, Google Cloud Pub/Sub) and integrating them more tightly and seamlessly with their vast array of other cloud services (databases, analytics, AI/ML platforms). This provides a compelling "single vendor" ecosystem advantage, potentially reducing the incentive for customers to adopt a third-party, specialized streaming platform like Confluent Cloud, particularly for those deeply committed to a single cloud provider. The convenience, perceived cost savings through consolidated billing/discounts, and reduced architectural complexity of staying within a hyperscaler's integrated ecosystem represent an emerging threat that leverages the cloud providers' immense market power and platform breadth.

Emergence of Unified Data Platforms (e.g., Lakehouse Architectures): Platforms like Databricks and Snowflake are increasingly expanding their capabilities to unify batch and real-time data processing (e.g., Databricks' Delta Live Tables and Structured Streaming, Snowflake's streaming and task features). As these unified "lakehouse" or "data cloud" architectures mature and simplify real-time data ingestion and processing, they could reduce the perceived need for a separate, dedicated real-time streaming platform like Confluent for many analytical and operational use cases. Enterprises might opt for these unified platforms to consolidate their data infrastructure, simplify their architecture, and reduce vendor complexity, potentially displacing some of the roles traditionally served by Kafka-centric solutions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Confluent (NASDAQ: CFLT) addresses a significant and growing global market for its data streaming products and services. The total addressable market (TAM) for Confluent's main products, primarily focused on data streaming and governance built on Apache Kafka, has been estimated by various sources: * Confluent itself believes the global addressable market for data streaming and governance exceeds $100 billion. * In Q1 2025, the data streaming opportunity, critical for AI, real-time analytics, and hybrid cloud infrastructure, was cited as a $60 billion total addressable market. * Analysts estimated Confluent's total addressable market at $51.6 billion in 2022, projected to grow at a 14% five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to $98.4 billion by 2027. * Earlier estimates indicated the total addressable market was over $50 billion, with projections to grow to $90 billion or more by 2024, driven by a 22% CAGR. This market encompasses application infrastructure and middleware, database management services, data integration tools, data quality tools, analytics, and business intelligence. * Confluent also projected its total addressable market opportunity to grow from $50 billion in 2021 to $91 billion by 2024, at a 22% annual growth rate. These market sizes are consistently cited as global.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Confluent (CFLT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Expansion of Confluent Cloud and Data Streaming Platform (DSP) Adoption: Confluent Cloud remains a primary growth engine, consistently showing significant year-over-year revenue increases. The company is actively shifting its focus to its cloud-based Data Streaming Platform (DSP), which it considers a crucial driver for future growth. New product offerings within the DSP, such as Tableflow and enhanced support for Apache Flink, are expected to contribute to this expansion.
  2. Growth in Customer Base and Increased Adoption by Existing Customers: Confluent continues to demonstrate strong customer acquisition, adding a notable number of new clients, including those with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeding $1 million. The company's net dollar retention rate of 117% signifies robust expansion within its existing customer base, indicating that current customers are increasing their usage and spending on Confluent's platform.
  3. Strategic Partnerships and Ecosystem Expansion: Confluent is actively pursuing strategic partnerships to broaden its market reach and integrate its data streaming capabilities across various ecosystems. Collaborations with major players like Databricks and Jio Platforms are anticipated to enhance real-time data integration for AI-driven applications and expand its presence in key international markets, such as India. The company has also committed significant investment to supercharge its global partner ecosystem.
  4. Leveraging AI Workloads and Product Innovation: Confluent is focused on enabling customers to build next-generation applications and capitalize on the opportunities presented by artificial intelligence. Recent product innovations and enhancements, including Confluent Intelligence, Real-Time Context Engine, and Streaming Agents, are designed to support and accelerate AI workloads, improve data context training, and facilitate real-time analytics, thereby driving new use cases and demand.
  5. Geographical Expansion: A stated component of Confluent's growth strategy involves expanding its geographical footprint. An example of this is the strategic partnership with Jio Platforms Limited, aimed at making Confluent Cloud available on Jio cloud services and the Confluent Platform as a managed service in India.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions (2020-2025)

Share Repurchases

  • Confluent has demonstrated a negative 3-Year Share Buyback Ratio of -7.00% as of June 2025, indicating share issuance rather than repurchases.
  • The 3-Month Share Buyback Ratio was also negative, at -1.21% as of June 2025.

Share Issuance

  • Confluent's shares outstanding significantly increased from 0.28 billion in 2022 to 0.301 billion in 2023 (a 7.37% increase) and 0.322 billion in 2024 (a 7.03% increase).
  • For the quarter ending September 30, 2025, shares outstanding were 0.346 billion, marking a 6.75% year-over-year increase.
  • In December 2021, Confluent announced the pricing of $1.0 billion in 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027, with an initial conversion rate of 9.9936 shares of Class A common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, potentially leading to future share issuance.

Outbound Investments

  • In September 2025, Confluent, Inc. acquired Warpstream Labs, Inc.
  • Net acquisitions/divestitures for the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, were reported at -$0.231 billion, reflecting a significant increase in acquisition activity.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for Confluent were $14.46 million in 2022, increasing to $20.68 million in 2023.
  • Estimated capital expenditures are projected to be $4.428 million for 2025 and $5.672 million for 2026.
  • Over the last five years, Confluent has invested more than 3 million engineering hours into Confluent Cloud, focusing on developing a "10x better Kafka service".

Better Bets than Confluent (CFLT)

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to CFLT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
10.2%10.2%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.2%16.2%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.2%4.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Confluent

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
Mkt Price30.14232.38488.02314.09221.93138.04227.16
Mkt Cap10.42,471.83,627.53,796.175.448.11,273.6
Rev LTM1,113670,038293,812385,4774,3873,212149,099
Op Inc LTM-38776,190135,937124,077-1,504-4338,074
FCF LTM3213,48178,01773,5527698657,173
FCF 3Y Avg-4821,67771,30268,99873169811,204
CFO LTM57121,137147,039151,42487498861,063
CFO 3Y Avg-2596,977121,384120,99082278948,899

Growth & Margins

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
Rev Chg LTM21.6%10.9%15.6%13.4%28.5%26.6%18.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg27.6%11.3%13.2%11.0%33.2%28.0%20.4%
Rev Chg Q19.3%13.3%18.4%15.9%28.7%28.4%18.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.5%3.0%4.3%3.8%6.6%6.5%4.4%
Op Mgn LTM-34.7%11.4%46.3%32.2%-34.3%-1.3%5.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-47.7%7.9%44.6%29.9%-38.0%-1.1%3.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%0.3%0.6%-0.5%3.1%-0.8%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM5.2%18.1%50.0%39.3%19.9%30.8%25.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-4.4%15.8%47.2%35.3%24.3%30.3%27.3%
FCF/Rev LTM2.8%2.0%26.6%19.1%17.5%26.9%18.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-6.9%3.5%28.0%20.5%21.6%26.8%21.1%

Valuation

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
Mkt Cap10.42,471.83,627.53,796.175.448.11,273.6
P/S9.43.712.39.817.215.011.1
P/EBIT-27.029.027.924.9-56.6352.326.4
P/E-34.335.034.630.6-55.9450.832.6
P/CFO181.920.424.725.186.348.736.9
Total Yield-2.9%2.9%3.6%3.5%-1.8%0.2%1.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.5%1.1%2.3%3.3%1.4%1.8%1.6%
D/E0.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
Net D/E-0.10.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

Returns

CFLTAMZNMSFTGOOGLSNOWDDOGMedian
NameConfluentAmazon.c.MicrosoftAlphabet SnowflakeDatadog  
1M Rtn43.1%2.7%3.0%-1.3%-8.3%-12.9%0.7%
3M Rtn52.7%5.5%-4.2%27.2%-0.3%1.1%3.3%
6M Rtn26.2%9.6%-0.5%84.3%0.2%6.0%7.8%
12M Rtn0.4%1.5%11.9%60.8%36.1%-7.0%6.7%
3Y Rtn37.1%172.6%109.3%254.7%60.2%90.6%100.0%
1M Excs Rtn39.7%-0.7%-0.4%-4.7%-11.7%-16.3%-2.7%
3M Excs Rtn51.6%1.6%-8.5%22.9%-4.8%-3.9%-1.2%
6M Excs Rtn8.4%-5.9%-14.4%68.4%-12.9%-7.6%-6.7%
12M Excs Rtn-16.3%-13.6%-4.3%47.9%16.6%-24.5%-8.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-43.3%92.1%26.2%176.2%-20.9%-0.1%13.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment777   
Confluent Cloud 2119431
Confluent Platform - License 766949
Confluent Platform - Post-contract Customer Support, Maintenance and Upgrades (PCS) 248184128
Services 514128
Total777586388237


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$30.14 
Market Cap ($ Bil)10.4 
First Trading Date06/24/2021 
Distance from 52W High-19.9% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$24.66$22.76
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA22.2%32.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility71.3%73.7%
Downside Capture-4.78168.67
Upside Capture194.77145.05
Correlation (SPY)21.8%41.6%
CFLT Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.721.581.501.691.631.76
Up Beta1.18-0.34-0.54-0.351.471.25
Down Beta2.682.472.351.621.631.93
Up Capture108%213%184%233%205%921%
Bmk +ve Days12253873141426
Stock +ve Days7162661121375
Down Capture202%148%158%245%144%111%
Bmk -ve Days7162452107323
Stock -ve Days10233461124369

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
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Based On 5-Year Data
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Based On 10-Year Data
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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date12152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,472,569
Short Interest: % Change Since 11302025-24.0%
Average Daily Volume27,438,587
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity346,197,913
Short % of Basic Shares4.2%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/20257.6%6.2%-1.1%
7/30/2025-32.9%-34.7%-24.1%
4/30/2025-18.4%-14.2%-3.3%
2/11/202525.1%10.4%-14.3%
10/30/202413.4%17.6%33.7%
7/31/2024-17.5%-24.1%-16.5%
5/7/202412.8%10.2%-6.8%
2/7/202434.1%39.5%34.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11117
# Negative7711
Median Positive13.4%11.8%33.7%
Median Negative-18.4%-28.5%-14.3%
Max Positive34.1%39.5%73.1%
Max Negative-42.1%-36.7%-58.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021