Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $91.83
Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS)
Market Price (11/5/2026): $91.83
Asset Allocation with CAOS
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAOS Return | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% |
| Peers Return | 10% | -15% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 6% | 44% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAOS Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 35% | 57% | 73% | 88% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAOS Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -21% | -8% | -5% | -9% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CGBL, AOR, AOA, AOM, AOK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/4/2026 (YTD)
Sharpe Ratios Compared
One measure of reward vs. risk is a Sharpe ratio. A higher ratio indicates better risk-adjusted returns. Most funds have Sharpe ratios < 1.0.
Results as of 10312026.How Low Can It Go
CAOS has limited trading history.
| Event | CAOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.8% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -7.8% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 8.5% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -9.5% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 10.5% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -6.7% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7.1% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days |
In The Past
null
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
CAOS has limited trading history.
| Event | CAOS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.8% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -7.8% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 8.5% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 18 days | |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -9.5% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 10.5% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 24 days | |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -6.7% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 7.1% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 427 days | |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 140 days |
In The Past
null
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Current Dip Buy Opportunities Across ETFs
ETFs currently down 5% or more from trailing 6M peaks.
| Ticker | Name | Dip % | Mkt Price | Price Date | Peak Price | Peak Date | # Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAGS | Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF | -5.4% | 70.28 | 11042026 | 74.30 | 10132026 | 22 |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | -8.9% | 691.95 | 11042026 | 759.66 | 10062026 | 29 |
| QQQM | Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF | -8.9% | 284.92 | 11042026 | 312.76 | 10062026 | 29 |
| ONEQ | Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF | -6.7% | 101.48 | 11042026 | 108.77 | 10062026 | 29 |
| QQEW | First Trust Nasdaq-100 Select Equal Weight ETF | -9.2% | 151.70 | 11042026 | 167.03 | 8132026 | 83 |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | -5.2% | 74.59 | 11042026 | 78.67 | 8162026 | 80 |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | -5.1% | 680.30 | 11042026 | 716.91 | 8162026 | 80 |
| IWM | iShares Russell 2000 ETF | -6.9% | 284.02 | 11042026 | 305.09 | 8162026 | 80 |
| SCHA | Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | -7.0% | 33.59 | 11042026 | 36.13 | 6302026 | 127 |
| VTWO | Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF | -6.7% | 114.65 | 11042026 | 122.90 | 8162026 | 80 |
| VUG | Vanguard Growth ETF | -7.0% | 86.14 | 11042026 | 92.64 | 10062026 | 29 |
| IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | -8.7% | 117.90 | 11042026 | 129.19 | 10062026 | 29 |
| IVW | iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF | -6.8% | 136.25 | 11042026 | 146.12 | 10062026 | 29 |
| SCHG | Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF | -6.0% | 34.72 | 11042026 | 36.93 | 10062026 | 29 |
| SPYG | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF | -6.7% | 117.97 | 11042026 | 126.50 | 10062026 | 29 |
| VONG | Vanguard Russell 1000 Growth ETF | -8.7% | 121.41 | 11042026 | 133.00 | 10062026 | 29 |
| MGK | Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF | -7.7% | 87.77 | 11042026 | 95.11 | 10062026 | 29 |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | -11.5% | 130.70 | 11042026 | 147.70 | 8172026 | 79 |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth ETF | -7.4% | 290.27 | 11042026 | 313.61 | 8162026 | 80 |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | -8.1% | 109.52 | 11042026 | 119.11 | 8172026 | 79 |
| MDYG | State Street SPDR S&P 400 Mid Cap Growth ETF | -8.1% | 104.50 | 11042026 | 113.69 | 8172026 | 79 |
| IWO | iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF | -9.8% | 356.73 | 11042026 | 395.65 | 8162026 | 80 |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth ETF | -8.7% | 334.13 | 11042026 | 365.91 | 8172026 | 79 |
| IJT | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF | -6.6% | 167.32 | 11042026 | 179.07 | 8042026 | 92 |
| SLYG | State Street SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Growth ETF | -6.5% | 111.68 | 11042026 | 119.50 | 8042026 | 92 |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total International Stock ETF | -5.1% | 83.88 | 11042026 | 88.41 | 9072026 | 58 |
| VSS | Vanguard FTSE All-World EX-US Small-Cap Index Fund | -6.8% | 150.57 | 11042026 | 161.49 | 5112026 | 177 |
| SCHC | Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF | -5.8% | 48.85 | 11042026 | 51.86 | 8272026 | 69 |
| IEMG | iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -12.9% | 74.94 | 11042026 | 86.00 | 6222026 | 135 |
| VWO | Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | -8.2% | 56.28 | 11042026 | 61.32 | 9072026 | 58 |
| EEM | iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | -13.5% | 61.62 | 11042026 | 71.21 | 6222026 | 135 |
| SPEM | State Street SPDR Portfolio Emerging Markets ETF | -7.9% | 49.20 | 11042026 | 53.41 | 9072026 | 58 |
| SCHE | Schwab Emerging Markets Equity ETF | -7.6% | 34.72 | 11042026 | 37.58 | 9072026 | 58 |
| FNDE | Schwab Fundamental Emerging Markets Equity ETF | -5.2% | 40.83 | 11042026 | 43.08 | 9072026 | 58 |
| ASHR | Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF | -16.9% | 30.99 | 11042026 | 37.30 | 6222026 | 135 |
| EWY | iShares MSCI South Korea ETF | -30.6% | 152.12 | 11042026 | 219.20 | 6212026 | 136 |
| EWZ | iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | -25.9% | 32.25 | 11042026 | 43.54 | 10122026 | 23 |
| FXI | iShares China Large-Cap ETF | -9.6% | 34.59 | 11042026 | 38.26 | 5132026 | 175 |
| ILF | iShares Latin America 40 ETF | -15.3% | 32.35 | 11042026 | 38.21 | 10122026 | 23 |
| KWEB | KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF | -20.5% | 24.32 | 11042026 | 30.59 | 5132026 | 175 |
| JEPQ | J.P. Morgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF | -5.9% | 57.11 | 11042026 | 60.70 | 10072026 | 28 |
| QQQI | NEOS Nasdaq 100 High Income ETF | -7.5% | 51.82 | 11042026 | 56.00 | 10062026 | 29 |
| MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | -21.0% | 272.86 | 11042026 | 345.22 | 6222026 | 135 |
| SPHQ | Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF | -6.1% | 84.64 | 11042026 | 90.10 | 6302026 | 127 |
| SPMO | Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | -18.3% | 132.03 | 11042026 | 161.66 | 6222026 | 135 |
| VLUE | iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF | -6.1% | 193.02 | 11042026 | 205.51 | 9072026 | 58 |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | -13.4% | 80.37 | 11042026 | 92.78 | 10052026 | 30 |
| URA | Global X Uranium ETF | -43.9% | 32.70 | 11042026 | 58.26 | 5062026 | 182 |
| BOTZ | Global X Funds Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF | -21.2% | 32.81 | 11042026 | 41.63 | 5132026 | 175 |
| ROBO | ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF | -17.3% | 74.72 | 11042026 | 90.34 | 6022026 | 155 |
| LIT | Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF | -32.5% | 61.88 | 11042026 | 91.62 | 5112026 | 177 |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean Energy ETF | -30.1% | 16.60 | 11042026 | 23.75 | 6022026 | 155 |
| ARKQ | ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF | -25.1% | 107.74 | 11042026 | 143.82 | 5282026 | 160 |
| ARKW | ARK Next Generation Internet ETF | -12.1% | 147.00 | 11042026 | 167.33 | 10062026 | 29 |
| ARKX | ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF | -23.4% | 28.92 | 11042026 | 37.74 | 5282026 | 160 |
| NASA | Tema Space Innovators ETF | -52.9% | 19.74 | 11042026 | 41.89 | 5272026 | 161 |
| XOVR | EntrepreneurShares Series Trust ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF | -9.5% | 20.29 | 11042026 | 22.43 | 10052026 | 30 |
| AGIX | KraneShares Artificial Intelligence ETF | -17.9% | 40.69 | 11042026 | 49.56 | 10062026 | 29 |
| DRSK | Aptus Defined Risk ETF | -7.0% | 27.33 | 11042026 | 29.39 | 6012026 | 156 |
| YYY | Amplify CEF High Income ETF | -8.3% | 10.42 | 11042026 | 11.37 | 8162026 | 80 |
| GDE | WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Equity Strategy Fund | -24.6% | 53.74 | 11042026 | 71.30 | 8252026 | 71 |
| RAAX | VanEck Real Assets ETF | -9.2% | 38.77 | 11042026 | 42.70 | 5112026 | 177 |
| VGT | Vanguard Information Technology ETF | -11.0% | 115.55 | 11042026 | 129.80 | 10062026 | 29 |
| XLK | State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF | -12.6% | 176.50 | 11042026 | 202.00 | 10062026 | 29 |
| XLE | State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | -9.3% | 63.52 | 11042026 | 70.02 | 11012026 | 3 |
| XLI | State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF | -9.1% | 169.46 | 11042026 | 186.51 | 8162026 | 80 |
| XLC | State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF | -10.3% | 104.96 | 11042026 | 117.08 | 5072026 | 181 |
| XLU | State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF | -5.8% | 43.61 | 11042026 | 46.29 | 7262026 | 101 |
| IYM | iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF | -6.5% | 183.61 | 11042026 | 196.45 | 8252026 | 71 |
| FXN | First Trust Energy AlphaDEX Fund | -8.4% | 22.91 | 11042026 | 25.00 | 11012026 | 3 |
| SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | -24.6% | 504.27 | 11042026 | 668.91 | 6222026 | 135 |
| SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | -31.2% | 450.41 | 11042026 | 655.01 | 6222026 | 135 |
| XBI | State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF | -6.2% | 159.10 | 11042026 | 169.55 | 8192026 | 77 |
| ITA | iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF | -15.9% | 212.84 | 11042026 | 253.22 | 8162026 | 80 |
| XOP | State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | -12.5% | 179.29 | 11042026 | 204.86 | 10262026 | 9 |
| IGV | iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF | -8.1% | 103.56 | 11042026 | 112.67 | 10112026 | 24 |
| IYT | iShares U.S. Transportation ETF | -5.5% | 85.02 | 11042026 | 90.01 | 7162026 | 111 |
| IAI | iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers & Securities Exchanges ETF | -6.1% | 185.91 | 11042026 | 198.06 | 9032026 | 62 |
| MISL | First Trust Indxx Aerospace & Defense ETF | -16.2% | 41.22 | 11042026 | 49.19 | 5282026 | 160 |
| RING | iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF | -20.6% | 73.94 | 11042026 | 93.17 | 8252026 | 71 |
| SOXQ | Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF | -29.8% | 80.85 | 11042026 | 115.11 | 6222026 | 135 |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -5.0% | 81.76 | 11042026 | 86.10 | 6292026 | 128 |
| EDV | Vanguard World Funds Extended Duration ETF | -7.8% | 59.53 | 11042026 | 64.54 | 6242026 | 133 |
| PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | -8.4% | 18.63 | 11042026 | 20.34 | 10252026 | 10 |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | -8.2% | 31.29 | 11042026 | 34.10 | 10252026 | 10 |
| COMT | iShares GSCI Commodity Dynamic Roll Strategy ETF | -9.4% | 35.59 | 11042026 | 39.30 | 10252026 | 10 |
| BCI | abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF | -8.4% | 24.57 | 11042026 | 26.81 | 9102026 | 55 |
| FTGC | First Trust Global Tactical Commodity Strategy Fund | -8.2% | 29.01 | 11042026 | 31.60 | 9102026 | 55 |
| HGER | Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF | -7.5% | 33.78 | 11042026 | 36.50 | 10252026 | 10 |
| GLD | SPDR Gold Trust | -14.3% | 372.49 | 11042026 | 434.65 | 5112026 | 177 |
| IAU | iShares Gold Trust | -14.2% | 76.37 | 11042026 | 89.06 | 5112026 | 177 |
| GLDM | SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust | -14.2% | 80.38 | 11042026 | 93.69 | 5112026 | 177 |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | -40.6% | 47.16 | 11042026 | 79.35 | 5132026 | 175 |
| PPLT | ETFS Physical Platinum Shares | -30.7% | 13.54 | 11042026 | 19.55 | 5132026 | 175 |
| PALL | ETFS Physical Palladium Shares | -34.7% | 18.27 | 11042026 | 27.96 | 5062026 | 182 |
| USO | United States Oil Fund LP | -14.2% | 145.41 | 11042026 | 169.53 | 10252026 | 10 |
| UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund LP | -23.5% | 9.27 | 11042026 | 12.12 | 6042026 | 153 |
| BNO | United States Brent Oil Fund LP ETV | -15.4% | 60.40 | 11042026 | 71.39 | 11012026 | 3 |
| REET | iShares Global REIT ETF | -5.1% | 27.43 | 11042026 | 28.89 | 7262026 | 101 |
| IBIT | iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | -7.5% | 45.33 | 11042026 | 49.01 | 9212026 | 44 |
| FBTC | Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund | -7.6% | 69.60 | 11042026 | 75.31 | 9212026 | 44 |
| ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | -9.4% | 54.74 | 11042026 | 60.45 | 9282026 | 37 |
ETF Fund Flows
Largest fund inflows and outflows across ETFs, with the asset-allocation rotation they imply.
Asset allocation rotation · Past month
- Equity ETFs drew the largest net inflows (+$96.8B), followed by Bond (+$36.1B), while Crypto (−$2.4B) and Real Estate (−$637M) saw the largest outflows.
- Within the mix, money rotated into US Large Cap Core (+$34.5B) and out of Gold (−$1.7B).
- Relative to fund size, ALAI drew the largest inflow (+66.4% of AUM) and EWS the largest outflow (−32.0%).
| # | Ticker | Name | Net flow | % of AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +$20.84B | +2.0% |
| 2 | SPYM | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF | +$9.06B | +4.9% |
| 3 | SOXX | iShares Semiconductor ETF | +$6.1B | +13.7% ⚠ |
| 4 | VTI | Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | +$5.29B | +0.8% |
| 5 | MUB | iShares National Muni Bond ETF | +$5.04B | +9.7% |
| 6 | LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | +$4.97B | +17.1% |
| 7 | QQQM | Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF | +$4.57B | +4.2% |
| 8 | SMH | VanEck Semiconductor ETF | +$3.68B | +5.3% |
| 9 | CNEQ | Alger Concentrated Equity ETF | +$3.46B | +58.4% |
| 10 | SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | +$3.46B | +0.4% |
| # | Ticker | Name | Net flow | % of AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BIL | State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | -$2.48B | -4.9% |
| 2 | IQMM | ProShares - GENIUS Money Market ETF | -$2.38B | -12.6% |
| 3 | SHV | iShares Trust iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -$2.23B | -9.5% |
| 4 | DRAM | Roundhill Memory ETF | -$2.23B | -11.6% |
| 5 | GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | -$1.93B | -1.4% |
| 6 | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust ETF | -$1.57B | -19.5% ⚠ |
| 7 | TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -$1.16B | -2.4% |
| 8 | VO | Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap ETF | -$1.14B | -1.1% |
| 9 | IWD | iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | -$1.13B | -1.4% |
| 10 | TCAF | T. Rowe Capital Appreciation Equity ETF | -$947M | -11.2% |
Largest ETF fund flows across ~2647 funds (min AUM $100M). Net creations/redemptions; leveraged & inverse ETFs excluded. A ⚠ marks a day excluded as a suspected data error.
About CAOS
| Holdings Count: 0Expense Ratio: 0.63%Inception Date: 2013-08-14 | Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETFCAOS seeks to actively earn positive returns during periods of significant US equity drawdowns while minimizing the return drag of collateral. The fund allocates up to 20% of assets in long and/or short SPX Index options, depending on market status. Between 1-10% is allocated to protective options positioned to appreciate in value when the index declines by more than 25%, which is considered to be a tail risk event. If a tail risk event does not occur, the cost of the protective positions will reduce returns. The remaining 70-80% of the portfolio is collateral consisting of US T-bills, box spreads, and money market instruments. Up to 100% of the collateral may be placed with the BOXX ETF that uses box spreads to provide the exposure of 1-3 month T-bills. The strategy involves frequent trading which increases costs and turnover rate, both having negative impacts on the fund. CAOS operated as a mutual fund until its conversion into an ETF, starting with $126 million in net assets.Asset Class: Asset allocation | ETF Website |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Profile
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Asset Class | - |
| AUM ($ Bil) | 2.6 |
| Expense Ratio | 0.20% |
| 10-D Avg Volume (Mil) | 0.25 |
| Latest Day Volume (Mil) | 0.71 |
| Holdings Count | 7 |
| Inception Date | - |
Fundamentals
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Net Asset Value | - |
| Premium/Discount | 0.7% |
| Distribution Yield | 2.4% |
| Sales Yield | - |
| Earnings Yield | - |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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