Collective Acquisition II (CAII)


Market Price (8/7/2026): $9.96 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Financials | Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings

Collective Acquisition II (CAII)


Market Price (8/7/2026): $9.96
Market Cap: $-
Sector: Financials
Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1.4%

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%

Key risks
[CAII] key risks include [1] the inability to complete an initial business combination within the required timeframe.

0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1.4%
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
3 Key risks
[CAII] key risks include [1] the inability to complete an initial business combination within the required timeframe.

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/1/2026

Collective Acquisition II (CAII) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 6/22/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Collective Acquisition II's stock remained largely at its IPO price due to its structure as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which maintains a trust account. The company's units were initially priced at $10.00 per unit, and approximately $10.05 per public share was deposited into a trust account following the IPO. This trust mechanism typically provides a strong floor for a SPAC's share price around its IPO price, as investors have the option to redeem their shares for this amount if a suitable business combination is not completed. Since the separate trading of Class A ordinary shares (CAII) commenced on June 22, 2026, the stock has traded in a narrow range between $9.90 and $9.95.

2. The absence of a definitive business combination announcement contributed to the stable stock movement. As a blank check company, Collective Acquisition II's primary objective is to seek and complete a merger or acquisition with an operating business. From the commencement of separate trading on June 22, 2026, through early August 2026, no significant news regarding a target business combination was announced. Without such a catalyst, a SPAC's stock typically trades near its trust value, reflecting its limited operational activity and speculative nature.

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Updated on 8/1/2026

Collective Acquisition II (CAII) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 6/22/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Collective Acquisition II's stock remained largely at its IPO price due to its structure as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which maintains a trust account. The company's units were initially priced at $10.00 per unit, and approximately $10.05 per public share was deposited into a trust account following the IPO. This trust mechanism typically provides a strong floor for a SPAC's share price around its IPO price, as investors have the option to redeem their shares for this amount if a suitable business combination is not completed. Since the separate trading of Class A ordinary shares (CAII) commenced on June 22, 2026, the stock has traded in a narrow range between $9.90 and $9.95.

2. The absence of a definitive business combination announcement contributed to the stable stock movement. As a blank check company, Collective Acquisition II's primary objective is to seek and complete a merger or acquisition with an operating business. From the commencement of separate trading on June 22, 2026, through early August 2026, no significant news regarding a target business combination was announced. Without such a catalyst, a SPAC's stock typically trades near its trust value, reflecting its limited operational activity and speculative nature.

3. Collective Acquisition II, as a pre-deal SPAC, has no inherent business operations or financial performance to drive price fluctuations. The company was incorporated on February 9, 2026, for the purpose of effecting a business combination. With no active business, revenue, or earnings to report in this early stage, the stock's value is primarily anchored by the cash held in its trust account. This lack of company-specific operational news during the specified period has resulted in low volatility and a relatively unchanged stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/6/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CAII  
Market (SPY)6.9%-4.4%
Sector (XLF)10.9%18.1%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/6/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CAII  
Market (SPY)11.4%-4.4%
Sector (XLF)8.7%18.1%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/6/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CAII  
Market (SPY)22.6%-4.4%
Sector (XLF)11.7%18.1%

Fundamental Drivers

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Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/6/2026
ReturnCorrelation
CAII  
Market (SPY)73.8%-4.4%
Sector (XLF)71.0%18.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
CAII Return-----0%0%
Peers Return     -0%-0%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CAII Win Rate-----67% 
Peers Win Rate     25% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CAII Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown       
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GUAC, IPFX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/6/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CAII has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

EventXLFS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-15.5%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven18.4%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven80 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-10.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.0%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven26 days24 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-16.1%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.1%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven270 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-22.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven467 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-42.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven74.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven289 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-19.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven24.5%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven123 days105 days

Compare to GUAC, IPFX

In The Past

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

CAII has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

EventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-22.3%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven28.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven467 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-42.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven74.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven289 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-21.4%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven272 days62 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-26.1%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven35.3%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven162 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-78.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven359.8%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven2329 days1085 days

Compare to GUAC, IPFX

In The Past

State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Collective Acquisition II (CAII)

Collective Acquisition II (CAII) is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), often referred to as a blank check company. Incorporated in 2026, its sole purpose is to identify and effect a merger, acquisition, or similar business combination with one or more existing private operating businesses. This process is designed to take the acquired private company public. CAII does not currently have any operational businesses, products, or services of its own; its activities are entirely focused on sourcing and completing its initial business combination.

As a SPAC, CAII's primary "offering" is its capital and the experience of its management team, which it leverages to facilitate the acquisition and public listing of a target company. CAII has not yet selected a specific business to acquire. However, it intends to focus its search on private companies that provide products or services impacting the sovereignty, security, self-sufficiency, or other national interests of the United States and/or its allies. This strategic focus includes businesses operating in critical sectors such as financial services, strategic resources, defense technology, and artificial intelligence.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Business Combination Facilitation: The company's primary purpose is to identify and execute a merger, acquisition, or similar business combination with one or more businesses.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Collective Acquisition II (CAII) is a blank check company, also known as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), incorporated for the purpose of effecting a business combination with one or more businesses. As stated in its description, it has not yet selected any specific business combination target and has not initiated any substantive discussions with potential targets. Therefore, Collective Acquisition II (CAII) currently does not have any major customers, as it is not yet operating a business that sells products or services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Daniel Hoffman, Chief Executive Officer

Daniel Hoffman has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Collective Acquisition II since its incorporation on February 9, 2026, and is also a member of its board of directors. He is the Founder and CEO of The Monday Group, a multi-family network he established in May 2023, which invests in financial services, strategic resources, defense technology, and artificial intelligence. Since November 2024, Mr. Hoffman has also been the Vice Chair of Collective Capital Management. His prior experience includes serving as a Managing Director of Residential Real Estate Funds at Cerberus Capital Management, L.P., a global alternative investment firm, from May 2016 to May 2023. He was also a Managing Director and Co-Head of U.S. Securitized and Structured Products and Head of Sales at the Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets from 2015 to 2016. Mr. Hoffman has a history of involvement with Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), having served as a director for Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. III from January 2025 to August 2025 and being associated with previous SPACs, including Inflection Point Acquisition II, which completed a business combination in 2024, and Inflection Point Acquisition III, which has a pending combination.

Samuel Sayegh, Chairman, President and Chief Financial Officer

Samuel Sayegh has served as the Chairman, President, and Chief Financial Officer of Collective Acquisition II since its incorporation on February 9, 2026. He is the Co-founder of UNCAP Investment Management LLC, an investment firm established in April 2021 that focuses on digital assets and other alternative investments. Mr. Sayegh has also been a partner at Collective Capital Management LLC since June 2025. From September 2018 to June 2021, he held roles as CFO and President of the Defense and Intelligence business unit at SPARK Neuro, Inc., where he has served on the board since January 2025. His experience also includes serving as a director of Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II from May 2023 to March 2025, where he chaired the audit committee. Earlier in his career, Mr. Sayegh worked on the Consumer and Education team at LLR Partners, a growth private equity firm, and began his career in investment banking at Royal Bank of Scotland.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risk to Collective Acquisition II (CAII) is:

  1. The inability to complete an initial business combination within the required timeframe.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The proliferation and increasing aggressiveness of sovereign wealth funds and state-backed strategic investment vehicles, particularly in critical national interest sectors, poses an emerging threat by intensifying competition and potentially driving up valuations for target companies. This trend makes it significantly harder for commercially-driven blank check companies like Collective Acquisition II to successfully identify and acquire suitable businesses within its stated focus areas of national sovereignty, security, self-sufficiency, and other national interests, including the financial, strategic resources, defense technology, and artificial intelligence sectors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

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Share Issuance

  • Collective Acquisition II completed its initial public offering (IPO) on April 30, 2026, issuing 22,000,000 units at $10.00 per unit, generating gross proceeds of $220,000,000.
  • The underwriters fully exercised their over-allotment option to purchase an additional 3,300,000 units at $10.00 each, resulting in an additional $33,000,000 in gross proceeds.
  • In total, the company sold 25,300,000 units from its IPO and over-allotment, raising aggregate gross proceeds of $253,000,000.

Inbound Investments

  • Simultaneously with the IPO, Collective Acquisition Sponsor II LLC purchased 5,837,500 private placement warrants at $0.80 per warrant, contributing $4,670,000 to the company.
  • A total of $254,265,000, representing the net proceeds from the IPO, over-allotment units, and private placements, was deposited into a U.S. trust account for the benefit of public shareholders.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CAIIGUACIPFXMedian
NameCollecti.Berto Ac.Inflecti. 
Mkt Price9.96-10.1010.03
Mkt Cap--0.10.1
Rev LTM----
Op Inc LTM----
FCF LTM----
FCF 3Y Avg----
CFO LTM----
CFO 3Y Avg----

Growth & Margins

CAIIGUACIPFXMedian
NameCollecti.Berto Ac.Inflecti. 
Rev Chg LTM----
Rev Chg 3Y Avg----
Rev Chg Q----
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM----
Op Inc Chg LTM----
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg----
Op Mgn LTM----
Op Mgn 3Y Avg----
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM----
CFO/Rev LTM----
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg----
FCF/Rev LTM----
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg----

Valuation

CAIIGUACIPFXMedian
NameCollecti.Berto Ac.Inflecti. 
Mkt Cap--0.10.1
P/S----
P/Op Inc----
P/EBIT----
P/E----
P/CFO----
Total Yield----
Dividend Yield--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg----
D/E--0.00.0
Net D/E---0.0-0.0

Returns

CAIIGUACIPFXMedian
NameCollecti.Berto Ac.Inflecti. 
1M Rtn0.4%--1.7%-0.6%
3M Rtn0.3%-0.5%0.4%
6M Rtn0.3%-0.5%0.4%
12M Rtn0.3%-0.5%0.4%
3Y Rtn0.3%-0.5%0.4%
1M Excs Rtn-2.6%--4.6%-3.6%
3M Excs Rtn-4.4%--4.2%-4.3%
6M Excs Rtn-11.7%--11.5%-11.6%
12M Excs Rtn-22.1%--21.9%-22.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-68.2%--68.0%-68.1%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Price Behavior

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CAII Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.05-0.02-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.00
Up Beta-0.090.03-0.060.02-0.010.00
Down Beta-0.01-0.04-0.01-0.06-0.02-0.01
Up Capture-2%-2%-1%-0%-0%-0%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days566666
Down Capture-8%-3%-2%-1%-1%-0%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days244444

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CAII
CAII-0.1%1.5%-3.84-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.2%14.6%0.6322.1%
Equity (SPY)23.5%12.9%1.37-18.2%
Gold (GLD)25.3%28.3%0.79-7.5%
Commodities (DBC)32.4%19.8%1.30-5.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.9%13.8%0.6421.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.6%43.0%-1.2117.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CAII
CAII-0.0%1.5%-3.84-
Sector ETF (XLF)11.3%18.4%0.4722.1%
Equity (SPY)13.2%17.2%0.59-18.2%
Gold (GLD)17.9%18.5%0.78-7.5%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.31-5.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.3%18.9%0.0221.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.0%53.0%0.3817.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with CAII
CAII-0.0%1.5%-3.84-
Sector ETF (XLF)13.7%22.1%0.5722.1%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.73-18.2%
Gold (GLD)11.8%16.2%0.59-7.5%
Commodities (DBC)7.4%18.0%0.33-5.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2021.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.3%66.2%0.9817.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity0.0 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6302026-31.4%
Average Daily Volume0.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/6/2026