Collective Acquisition II (CAII)
Market Price (8/7/2026): $9.96 | Market Cap: $-Sector: Financials | Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings
Collective Acquisition II (CAII)
Market Price (8/7/2026): $9.96Market Cap: $-Sector: FinancialsIndustry: Multi-Sector Holdings
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1.4% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Key risks[CAII] key risks include [1] the inability to complete an initial business combination within the required timeframe. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1.4% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Key risks[CAII] key risks include [1] the inability to complete an initial business combination within the required timeframe. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Collective Acquisition II (CAII) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 6/22/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Collective Acquisition II's stock remained largely at its IPO price due to its structure as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which maintains a trust account. The company's units were initially priced at $10.00 per unit, and approximately $10.05 per public share was deposited into a trust account following the IPO. This trust mechanism typically provides a strong floor for a SPAC's share price around its IPO price, as investors have the option to redeem their shares for this amount if a suitable business combination is not completed. Since the separate trading of Class A ordinary shares (CAII) commenced on June 22, 2026, the stock has traded in a narrow range between $9.90 and $9.95.
2. The absence of a definitive business combination announcement contributed to the stable stock movement. As a blank check company, Collective Acquisition II's primary objective is to seek and complete a merger or acquisition with an operating business. From the commencement of separate trading on June 22, 2026, through early August 2026, no significant news regarding a target business combination was announced. Without such a catalyst, a SPAC's stock typically trades near its trust value, reflecting its limited operational activity and speculative nature.
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Collective Acquisition II (CAII) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 6/22/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Collective Acquisition II's stock remained largely at its IPO price due to its structure as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), which maintains a trust account. The company's units were initially priced at $10.00 per unit, and approximately $10.05 per public share was deposited into a trust account following the IPO. This trust mechanism typically provides a strong floor for a SPAC's share price around its IPO price, as investors have the option to redeem their shares for this amount if a suitable business combination is not completed. Since the separate trading of Class A ordinary shares (CAII) commenced on June 22, 2026, the stock has traded in a narrow range between $9.90 and $9.95.
2. The absence of a definitive business combination announcement contributed to the stable stock movement. As a blank check company, Collective Acquisition II's primary objective is to seek and complete a merger or acquisition with an operating business. From the commencement of separate trading on June 22, 2026, through early August 2026, no significant news regarding a target business combination was announced. Without such a catalyst, a SPAC's stock typically trades near its trust value, reflecting its limited operational activity and speculative nature.
3. Collective Acquisition II, as a pre-deal SPAC, has no inherent business operations or financial performance to drive price fluctuations. The company was incorporated on February 9, 2026, for the purpose of effecting a business combination. With no active business, revenue, or earnings to report in this early stage, the stock's value is primarily anchored by the cash held in its trust account. This lack of company-specific operational news during the specified period has resulted in low volatility and a relatively unchanged stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAII | ||
| Market (SPY) | 6.9% | -4.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 10.9% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAII | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | -4.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 8.7% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAII | ||
| Market (SPY) | 22.6% | -4.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 11.7% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAII | ||
| Market (SPY) | 73.8% | -4.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | 71.0% | 18.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAII Return | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | 0% |
| Peers Return | -0% | -0% | |||||
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAII Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | ||||||
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAII Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | |||||||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GUAC, IPFX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
CAII has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 123 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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CAII has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.
| Event | XLF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.3% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 272 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -78.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 359.8% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2329 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Collective Acquisition II (CAII)
Collective Acquisition II (CAII) is a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), often referred to as a blank check company. Incorporated in 2026, its sole purpose is to identify and effect a merger, acquisition, or similar business combination with one or more existing private operating businesses. This process is designed to take the acquired private company public. CAII does not currently have any operational businesses, products, or services of its own; its activities are entirely focused on sourcing and completing its initial business combination.
As a SPAC, CAII's primary "offering" is its capital and the experience of its management team, which it leverages to facilitate the acquisition and public listing of a target company. CAII has not yet selected a specific business to acquire. However, it intends to focus its search on private companies that provide products or services impacting the sovereignty, security, self-sufficiency, or other national interests of the United States and/or its allies. This strategic focus includes businesses operating in critical sectors such as financial services, strategic resources, defense technology, and artificial intelligence.
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- Business Combination Facilitation: The company's primary purpose is to identify and execute a merger, acquisition, or similar business combination with one or more businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Collective Acquisition II (CAII) is a blank check company, also known as a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), incorporated for the purpose of effecting a business combination with one or more businesses. As stated in its description, it has not yet selected any specific business combination target and has not initiated any substantive discussions with potential targets. Therefore, Collective Acquisition II (CAII) currently does not have any major customers, as it is not yet operating a business that sells products or services.
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Daniel Hoffman, Chief Executive Officer
Daniel Hoffman has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Collective Acquisition II since its incorporation on February 9, 2026, and is also a member of its board of directors. He is the Founder and CEO of The Monday Group, a multi-family network he established in May 2023, which invests in financial services, strategic resources, defense technology, and artificial intelligence. Since November 2024, Mr. Hoffman has also been the Vice Chair of Collective Capital Management. His prior experience includes serving as a Managing Director of Residential Real Estate Funds at Cerberus Capital Management, L.P., a global alternative investment firm, from May 2016 to May 2023. He was also a Managing Director and Co-Head of U.S. Securitized and Structured Products and Head of Sales at the Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets from 2015 to 2016. Mr. Hoffman has a history of involvement with Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), having served as a director for Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. III from January 2025 to August 2025 and being associated with previous SPACs, including Inflection Point Acquisition II, which completed a business combination in 2024, and Inflection Point Acquisition III, which has a pending combination.
Samuel Sayegh, Chairman, President and Chief Financial Officer
Samuel Sayegh has served as the Chairman, President, and Chief Financial Officer of Collective Acquisition II since its incorporation on February 9, 2026. He is the Co-founder of UNCAP Investment Management LLC, an investment firm established in April 2021 that focuses on digital assets and other alternative investments. Mr. Sayegh has also been a partner at Collective Capital Management LLC since June 2025. From September 2018 to June 2021, he held roles as CFO and President of the Defense and Intelligence business unit at SPARK Neuro, Inc., where he has served on the board since January 2025. His experience also includes serving as a director of Inflection Point Acquisition Corp. II from May 2023 to March 2025, where he chaired the audit committee. Earlier in his career, Mr. Sayegh worked on the Consumer and Education team at LLR Partners, a growth private equity firm, and began his career in investment banking at Royal Bank of Scotland.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risk to Collective Acquisition II (CAII) is:
- The inability to complete an initial business combination within the required timeframe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The proliferation and increasing aggressiveness of sovereign wealth funds and state-backed strategic investment vehicles, particularly in critical national interest sectors, poses an emerging threat by intensifying competition and potentially driving up valuations for target companies. This trend makes it significantly harder for commercially-driven blank check companies like Collective Acquisition II to successfully identify and acquire suitable businesses within its stated focus areas of national sovereignty, security, self-sufficiency, and other national interests, including the financial, strategic resources, defense technology, and artificial intelligence sectors.
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Share Issuance
- Collective Acquisition II completed its initial public offering (IPO) on April 30, 2026, issuing 22,000,000 units at $10.00 per unit, generating gross proceeds of $220,000,000.
- The underwriters fully exercised their over-allotment option to purchase an additional 3,300,000 units at $10.00 each, resulting in an additional $33,000,000 in gross proceeds.
- In total, the company sold 25,300,000 units from its IPO and over-allotment, raising aggregate gross proceeds of $253,000,000.
Inbound Investments
- Simultaneously with the IPO, Collective Acquisition Sponsor II LLC purchased 5,837,500 private placement warrants at $0.80 per warrant, contributing $4,670,000 to the company.
- A total of $254,265,000, representing the net proceeds from the IPO, over-allotment units, and private placements, was deposited into a U.S. trust account for the benefit of public shareholders.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.1 |
| Rev LTM | - |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | - |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.05 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 |
| Up Beta | -0.09 | 0.03 | -0.06 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.00 |
| Down Beta | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.01 | -0.06 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Up Capture | -2% | -2% | -1% | -0% | -0% | -0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Down Capture | -8% | -3% | -2% | -1% | -1% | -0% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAII | -0.1% | 1.5% | -3.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.2% | 14.6% | 0.63 | 22.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.5% | 12.9% | 1.37 | -18.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 25.3% | 28.3% | 0.79 | -7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 32.4% | 19.8% | 1.30 | -5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.9% | 13.8% | 0.64 | 21.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -43.6% | 43.0% | -1.21 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAII | -0.0% | 1.5% | -3.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 11.3% | 18.4% | 0.47 | 22.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.2% | 0.59 | -18.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.9% | 18.5% | 0.78 | -7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.31 | -5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.3% | 18.9% | 0.02 | 21.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.0% | 53.0% | 0.38 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAII | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAII | -0.0% | 1.5% | -3.84 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 13.7% | 22.1% | 0.57 | 22.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | -18.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.2% | 0.59 | -7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 18.0% | 0.33 | -5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 21.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Multi-Sector Holdings Resources |
| McKinsey & Company Insights |
| Harvard Business Review |
| ValueWalk |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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