BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $37.72 | Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Services
BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $37.72Market Cap: $7.7 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 59x |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 117% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% | |
| Key risksBTSG key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Geriatric Care, Remote Patient Monitoring, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 59x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 117% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Key risksBTSG key risks include [1] a substantial debt burden, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BTSG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) stock for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance and Increased Guidance: BrightSpring Health Services reported preliminary third-quarter 2025 revenue of $3.33 billion, a 28% increase from the prior year, and Adjusted EBITDA of $160 million, up 37%. The company also raised its full-year 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance. Official Q3 results released on October 28, 2025, surpassed market expectations for both revenue and adjusted EPS, further boosting investor confidence.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Upgrades: Several financial analysts issued positive ratings and increased price targets for BTSG during this period. In December 2025, Mizuho raised its price target to $42 from $38, and Keybanc upgraded the stock to "Overweight" with a $45 price target. Other firms like William Blair, Deutsche Bank, and BMO Capital Markets also provided favorable coverage, contributing to a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target of $38.75 by December 13, 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BTSG Return | � | � | � | � | � | 115% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | -2% | -6% | 1% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BTSG Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 73% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 45% | 48% | 50% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BTSG Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -22% | -26% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPCH, EHAB, ADUS, EHC, ACHC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BTSG has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 599 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 326 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,100 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -16.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -16.1% loss requires a 19.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BTSG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.4% | 17.4% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.7% | -6.7% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.9% | 10.9% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.7% | 2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.4% | 11.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for BrightSpring Health Services
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 35.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| Rev LTM | 4,398 |
| Op Inc LTM | 337 |
| FCF LTM | 159 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 81 |
| CFO LTM | 297 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 220 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.9 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -67.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharmacy Solutions | 6,522 | 5,264 | 4,389 | 3,636 | 3,022 |
| Provider Services | 2,304 | 2,181 | 1,963 | 1,684 | 1,287 |
| Other | 275 | 346 | 261 | 216 | |
| Total | 8,826 | 7,721 | 6,698 | 5,580 | 4,525 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharmacy Solutions | 371 | 344 | 321 | 275 | 250 |
| Provider Services | 307 | 289 | 262 | 230 | 154 |
| Goodwill impairment loss | 0 | -41 | 0 | 0 | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -22 | -22 | -199 | -182 | -155 |
| Segment depreciation and amortization | -180 | -182 | |||
| Selling, general, and administrative expenses | -328 | -220 | -181 | -180 | -204 |
| Other | 20 | 32 | 22 | 18 | |
| Total | 147 | 188 | 234 | 165 | 63 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2025 | 5.8% | 11.0% | 3.5% |
| 8/1/2025 | -4.9% | -0.9% | 14.7% |
| 3/6/2025 | -6.3% | -3.4% | -3.3% |
| 11/1/2024 | 15.2% | 26.4% | 27.5% |
| 8/2/2024 | -8.7% | -5.8% | 2.6% |
| 2/29/2024 | -7.6% | -6.6% | 11.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 10.5% | 18.7% | 11.7% |
| Median Negative | -7.0% | -4.6% | -3.3% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 26.4% | 27.5% |
| Max Negative | -8.7% | -6.6% | -3.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3062024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 6302023 | 11092023 | DRS/A 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262024 | 424B4 12/31/2022 |
| 6302021 | 10182021 | S-1 6/30/2021 |
| 12312020 | 1042022 | S-1/A 12/31/2020 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |