Armlogi (BTOC)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $0.2716 | Market Cap: $12.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
Armlogi (BTOC)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $0.2716Market Cap: $12.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -64% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -166% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.3 |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 48% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -19 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.5% | |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 970% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -162% | ||
| Key risksBTOC key risks include [1] its Nasdaq non-compliance, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -64% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 48% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -166% |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.3 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -19 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 970% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -162% |
| Key risksBTOC key risks include [1] its Nasdaq non-compliance, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Persistent Net Losses and Declining Profitability: Armlogi has consistently reported net losses, signaling ongoing financial struggles. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025 (Q4 2025), the company reported a net loss of $15.3 million, a significant reversal from a net income of $7.4 million in the prior fiscal year, with gross profit turning negative at -$3.0 million compared to a positive $18.1 million. This trend continued into fiscal year 2026, with a net loss of $6.5 million, or ($0.15) per share, for Q1 (ended September 30, 2025) and an increased net loss of $3.9 million, or ($0.08) per share, for Q2 (ended December 31, 2025). The total net loss for the first six months of fiscal year 2026 reached $10.4 million, or ($0.24) per share, compared to $6.3 million, or ($0.15) per share, in the prior year period.
2. Escalating Operational Costs and Margin Pressures: The company has faced significant increases in operational expenses, directly impacting its profitability. In fiscal year 2025, the cost of sales surged by 29.9% to $193.4 million, driven primarily by higher freight costs from major third-party carriers like FedEx and UPS, as well as increased rental, labor, and warehouse expenses associated with expanding its operational footprint. Concurrently, general and administrative expenses jumped 47.2% to $14.7 million in fiscal year 2025, attributed to investments in operations and technology upgrades. These rising costs have led to declining gross margins, with the Q2 fiscal year 2026 gross margin falling to (1.5)% from 0.9% in the prior-year period.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.9% change in BTOC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -54.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 0.62 | 0.27 | -56.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 197 | 198 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.1 | 0.1 | -54.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 42 | 45 | -6.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -56.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BTOC | -56.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.2% | 14.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.5% | 11.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -80.3% change in BTOC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -79.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 1.35 | 0.27 | -80.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 185 | 198 | 7.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.1 | -79.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 42 | 45 | -8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -80.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BTOC | -80.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.8% | 12.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.1% | 8.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -88.4% change in BTOC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -88.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.30 | 0.27 | -88.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 177 | 198 | 11.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.1 | -88.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 42 | 45 | -8.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -88.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BTOC | -88.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.3% | 16.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 22.4% | 12.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BTOC | ||
| Market (SPY) | 73.1% | 16.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 70.7% | 9.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BTOC Return | - | - | - | -10% | -87% | -45% | -94% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -26% | 25% | -1% | -31% | 3% | -22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 79% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BTOC Win Rate | - | - | - | 38% | 17% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 50% | 61% | 47% | 39% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BTOC Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -21% | -89% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -33% | -7% | -18% | -44% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RLGT, ELOG, SLGB, UPS, FDX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
BTOC has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,463 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to RLGT, ELOG, SLGB, UPS, FDX
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Armlogi (BTOC)
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An independent Amazon FBA for e-commerce merchants selling into the U.S.
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- Customs Brokerage Services: Assistance with navigating U.S. customs regulations for imported goods.
- Transportation Services: Moving merchandise from origin to U.S. warehouses.
- Warehouse Management: Comprehensive services for product storage, retrieval, packing, labeling, kitting, and repackaging within their facilities.
- Order Fulfillment: Services encompassing order assembly, load consolidation, and preparation of goods for shipment to consumers.
- Inventory Management & Sales Forecasting: Managing product stock levels and providing analytical insights to predict future demand.
- Third-Party Distribution Coordination: Arranging and managing the delivery of goods through external distribution networks.
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Armlogi (BTOC) primarily serves other companies, specifically e-commerce merchants, rather than individual consumers. The provided information does not list the specific names of its major customer companies or their public symbols.
However, the company describes its customer base as comprising two main categories of businesses:
- Cross-border e-commerce merchants outside the U.S.: These are businesses, predominantly based in China, that utilize Armlogi's services to export their goods in batches to U.S. warehouses for eventual sale and delivery to U.S. consumers. These merchants seek to overcome logistical challenges associated with international shipping by establishing an overseas presence through Armlogi's warehousing solutions.
- U.S.-based commercial customers (domestic e-commerce merchants): These are businesses operating within the U.S. market that require efficient and reliable warehousing and logistics solutions to support their domestic e-commerce operations.
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Aidy Chou Co-Founder, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Chou is the Co-Founder, Chief Executive Officer, President, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Armlogi, responsible for high-level strategizing, business planning, overall financial management, and internal control. From September 2003 to May 2023, he established and served as the chief executive officer and chief financial officer at Advance Tuner, where he was responsible for overseeing the company's overall financial management and day-to-day operations. He possesses approximately two decades of experience managing multimillion-dollar business operations at Advance Tuner. Mr. Chou received his bachelor's degree in Economics from National Taiwan University in 1984.
Sheng-Kai (Scott) Hsu Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Hsu was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Armlogi Holding Corp. effective January 13, 2025, after joining the company as an accounting lead in July 2024. He brings financial management expertise from the manufacturing and wholesale sectors. Previously, he served as North America Controller at PARPRO Technologies Inc. from July 2023 to June 2024, where he managed finance teams across the U.S. and Mexico and ensured compliance with U.S. GAAP and international standards. He also served as Accounting Lead at Absen Inc. from August 2019 to April 2022 and held a finance role at BENQ Latin America Corp. Mr. Hsu holds a B.S. in Finance from Yuan-Ze University (2005) and an M.S. in Finance from Johns Hopkins University (2014) and is a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) since 2023 and a Certified Management Accountant (CMA) since 2020.
Tong Wu Co-Founder, Chief Administrative Officer, Treasurer, and Director
Mr. Wu is a Co-Founder, Chief Administrative Officer, Treasurer, and a director at Armlogi. He has extensive experience in the third-party logistics industry. As a co-founder of Armstrong Logistic, he has served as its chief administrative officer since April 2020, responsible for the management of day-to-day operations and overseeing departments such as sales, marketing, and human resources. From March 2018 to April 2020, Mr. Wu worked as a self-employed portfolio manager, overseeing a diverse range of investments exceeding $10 million in aggregate across the U.S., Hong Kong, Brazil, and other countries, including securities, real estate, and business ventures. He received his bachelor's degree in economics from Inner Mongolia Open University in 1992 and an MBA degree from the University of South Wales in 2022.
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Armlogi's primary business risk is its extreme reliance on customers based in China. The company explicitly states that during the six months ended December 31, 2023, and the fiscal years ended June 30, 2023, and 2022, it generated approximately 96%, 96%, and 93% of its revenue, respectively, from PRC-based customers. This concentration exposes Armlogi to significant risks related to changes in U.S.-China trade relations, economic downturns in China, shifts in Chinese e-commerce regulations, or geopolitical tensions that could adversely affect its customer base and, consequently, its revenue and profitability.
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Armlogi (BTOC) operates within the U.S. warehousing and logistics market, primarily serving cross-border e-commerce merchants selling into the U.S. and domestic U.S. e-commerce merchants. The addressable markets for their main products and services are significant and continue to grow:
- U.S. Cross-Border E-commerce Logistics Market: This market, which caters to the complexities of international shipping for online sales, is a key area for Armlogi. The cross-border e-commerce logistics market in the U.S. is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 23.7% from 2024 to 2030. North America is a leading region in the global cross-border e-commerce logistics market, with the U.S. accounting for approximately 60% of this regional market. The global cross-border e-commerce logistics market size was estimated at USD 119.29 billion in 2024.
- U.S. E-commerce Logistics Market (including Warehousing and Fulfillment): This broader market encompasses all logistics services for online retail within the U.S., including warehousing and fulfillment, which are core offerings of Armlogi. The United States e-commerce logistics market is projected to witness a CAGR of 9.67% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2032, growing from USD 105.78 billion in 2024 to USD 221.36 billion in 2032. More specifically, the U.S. e-commerce fulfillment services market generated an estimated revenue of USD 22.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 49 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 14.1% from 2025 to 2030.
- U.S. Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Market: Armlogi's services also fall under the umbrella of the U.S. third-party logistics market, which includes outsourced transportation, warehousing, and supply chain management. This market was estimated at USD 247.4 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% from 2024 to 2030. The warehousing and distribution segment, highly relevant to Armlogi, is a dominant and fast-growing component within the U.S. 3PL market.
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Armlogi (BTOC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:- Expansion of Warehousing Footprint and Capacity: Armlogi has been consistently expanding its physical operational capacity, increasing both the number of warehouses and total square footage. This expansion, including new facilities in key regions, enables the company to serve a larger volume of goods and a broader customer base, directly contributing to revenue growth. For example, the company reported operating 10 U.S. warehouses with approximately 3.9 million square feet of space in fiscal year 2025.
- Growth and Diversification of Customer Base: The company has demonstrated significant growth in its active customer base, which increased from 105 to 505 in fiscal year 2025, and further to 607 by Q1 fiscal year 2026. Armlogi is also actively working to diversify its customer mix, reducing reliance on a few large clients and expanding its reach beyond predominantly PRC-based customers to include more U.S.-based clients, thereby mitigating revenue concentration risks and opening new avenues for growth.
- Deployment and Optimization of AI-enabled Smart Fulfillment Network: The recent launch of its AI-enabled Smart Fulfillment Network™ is a significant driver. This proprietary system leverages artificial intelligence to optimize order routing across its multi-state warehouse network, aiming to reduce average shipping costs and improve overall delivery efficiency. This technological advancement is designed to enhance service quality, attract more e-commerce merchants, and allow for scalable, cost-efficient operations.
- Sustained Demand for Comprehensive Logistics Services: Armlogi benefits from the ongoing strong demand for comprehensive supply chain solutions, particularly from cross-border e-commerce merchants seeking to sell in the U.S. market, as well as domestic e-commerce businesses. The company's unique one-stop services, including customs brokerage, transportation, warehouse management, and order fulfillment, address complex logistical challenges, indicating continued market need for their offerings.
- Enhanced Shipping Capabilities and Diversified Carrier Relationships: Armlogi has focused on expanding its shipping capabilities, exemplified by the integration of Amazon Shipping, which provides customers with more efficient and cost-effective parcel delivery options. Additionally, efforts to diversify carrier relationships help in managing rising freight costs and setting more competitive prices, improving service appeal and indirectly supporting revenue generation by attracting and retaining customers.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.3 |
| Rev LTM | 44,777 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,171 |
| FCF LTM | 2,178 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,859 |
| CFO LTM | 4,105 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,136 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.3 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 16.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -12.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -22.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -38.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -51.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -54.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -122.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $0.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/14/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -84.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $0.41 | $0.93 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -34.7% | -71.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 72.3% | 90.8% |
| Downside Capture | 302.45 | 140.04 |
| Upside Capture | -189.54 | -26.81 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 12.2% | 12.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.13 | 0.50 | 0.26 | 0.61 | 0.83 | -0.05 |
| Up Beta | -0.63 | -0.85 | -2.17 | 0.54 | 0.91 | -0.31 |
| Down Beta | 1.09 | 1.56 | 1.27 | 1.68 | 0.79 | 0.51 |
| Up Capture | -294% | -161% | -140% | -120% | -18% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 14 | 20 | 45 | 95 | 185 |
| Down Capture | 316% | 233% | 223% | 179% | 135% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 27 | 41 | 78 | 143 | 248 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BTOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTOC | -75.6% | 91.0% | -1.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 25.6% | 19.1% | 1.07 | 10.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 13.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 62.0% | 26.4% | 1.81 | -2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.3% | 17.3% | 0.85 | 5.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 6.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.1% | 44.3% | -0.16 | 10.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BTOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTOC | -43.9% | 99.8% | -1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 9.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 16.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.3% | 1.07 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 18.8% | 0.13 | 6.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 7.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BTOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTOC | -25.1% | 99.8% | -1.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 19.8% | 0.62 | 9.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 16.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.7% | 0.75 | -2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 6.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 7.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/25/2025 | -16.5% | -30.5% | -41.6% |
| 5/15/2025 | 0.6% | -8.9% | -3.8% |
| 9/26/2024 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 71.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 3.6% | 0.0% | 71.5% |
| Median Negative | -16.5% | -19.7% | -22.7% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 0.0% | 71.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.5% | -30.5% | -41.6% |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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