Booking (BKNG)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $192.71 | Market Cap: $152.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Booking (BKNG)
Market Price (8/4/2026): $192.71Market Cap: $152.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 25 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.1% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.5x Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 25 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -8.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.5x |
| Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Booking (BKNG) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Booking Holdings exceeded expectations in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, released on April 28, 2026. The company reported diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.14 against a consensus estimate of $1.08, representing a 5.56% beat. Revenue reached $5.53 billion, surpassing the $5.52 billion consensus and marking a 16.2% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA also rose by approximately 19% year-over-year.
2. Persistent positive analyst sentiment and favorable price targets supported the stock. Despite some geopolitical headwinds, analysts largely maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings for BKNG. The average 12-month price target ranged from approximately $221.98 to $227.23 by late July 2026, implying a potential upside of over 22% from the share price around July 20, 2026.
Show more
Booking (BKNG) stock has gained about 15% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Booking Holdings exceeded expectations in its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report, released on April 28, 2026. The company reported diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.14 against a consensus estimate of $1.08, representing a 5.56% beat. Revenue reached $5.53 billion, surpassing the $5.52 billion consensus and marking a 16.2% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA also rose by approximately 19% year-over-year.
2. Persistent positive analyst sentiment and favorable price targets supported the stock. Despite some geopolitical headwinds, analysts largely maintained "Buy" or "Strong Buy" ratings for BKNG. The average 12-month price target ranged from approximately $221.98 to $227.23 by late July 2026, implying a potential upside of over 22% from the share price around July 20, 2026.
3. Resilient underlying travel demand, particularly in the U.S., contributed to investor confidence. While the company acknowledged a drag from the Middle East conflict on room nights, Booking Holdings reported low-teens U.S. room night growth in fiscal Q1 2026, marking its fourth consecutive quarter of acceleration in this key market. This demonstrated strong domestic recovery and offset some international uncertainties.
4. Optimistic projections for fiscal Q2 2026 and full-year 2026, despite cautious guidance, instilled confidence. Analysts anticipate Booking Holdings to report diluted EPS of $2.46 for fiscal Q2 2026, an expected 10.8% increase from the prior year. Revenue is forecasted to grow by 5.76% to $7.19 billion for the same period. The company has a consistent track record of exceeding Wall Street's EPS estimates in the preceding four trailing quarters, suggesting the market expects it to navigate challenges effectively.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 14.8% change in BKNG stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 167.94 | 192.71 | 14.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,687 | 27,687 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 24.7 | 14.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 790 | 790 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 14.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 14.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 13.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.1% | 49.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.2% change in BKNG stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 199.12 | 192.71 | -3.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,039 | 27,687 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 22.2% | 14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.0 | 24.7 | -22.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 810 | 790 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -3.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 28.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.2% | 51.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.7% change in BKNG stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 218.32 | 192.71 | -11.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 25,025 | 27,687 | 10.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.2% | 22.2% | 15.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.8 | 24.7 | -32.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 812 | 790 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -11.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.9% | 31.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 7.4% | 47.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 65.6% change in BKNG stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 52.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 116.36 | 192.71 | 65.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,173 | 27,687 | 52.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.1% | 22.2% | 0.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.2 | 24.7 | -9.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 941 | 790 | 19.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 65.6% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 65.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 71.4% | 49.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 39.2% | 55.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKNG Return | 8% | -16% | 76% | 41% | 9% | -10% | 121% |
| Peers Return | 22% | -32% | 50% | 10% | 17% | 9% | 73% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 99% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKNG Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 40% | 58% | 62% | 57% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 38% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKNG Max Drawdown | -22% | -40% | -15% | -20% | -21% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -44% | -25% | -30% | -33% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: EXPE, ABNB, MAR, HLT, TRIP. See BKNG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/3/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Booking's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Booking's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Booking (BKNG)
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global technology company specializing in online travel and restaurant reservation services. Through its diverse portfolio of brands, the company acts as an intermediary, connecting consumers worldwide with a wide array of travel options, including accommodations, flights, rental cars, and vacation packages, as well as facilitating restaurant bookings. Its core mission is to simplify and enhance the process of planning and booking for both leisure and business travelers, as well as diners.
The company operates several prominent platforms, each serving distinct aspects of the travel and dining industries. Key brands include Booking.com and Agoda for online accommodation reservations; Rentalcars.com for car rentals; and Priceline, which offers a comprehensive suite of services covering hotels, flights, and rental cars, along with vacation packages and cruises. KAYAK provides an essential price comparison service across various travel itineraries, allowing users to search and compare prices, while OpenTable specializes in online restaurant reservations. Booking Holdings also offers related services such as travel insurance and restaurant management tools.
Booking Holdings primarily serves two main customer segments: individual consumers seeking convenient and competitive options for their travel and dining needs, and the vast network of travel service providers (like hotels, airlines, and car rental companies) and restaurants, which utilize the company's platforms to reach a global audience, manage their bookings, and streamline operations. The company's extensive reach and varied offerings position it as a leading facilitator of seamless travel and dining experiences for millions of users across the globe.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Booking (BKNG):
- Like Expedia for travel and OpenTable for restaurants.
- The Amazon for booking travel and restaurants.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Booking.com: Offers online reservations for accommodations worldwide.
- Rentalcars.com: Provides online reservation services for rental cars.
- Priceline: A comprehensive online travel agency offering reservations for hotels, flights, rental cars, vacation packages, and cruises.
- Agoda: Specializes in online accommodation reservations, also offering flights, ground transportation, and activities.
- KAYAK: An online price comparison service for flights, accommodations, and rental cars.
- OpenTable: Facilitates online restaurant reservations.
- Travel-related Insurance Products: Provides various insurance products related to travel.
- Restaurant Management Services: Offers services to assist restaurants with their operations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) primarily sells its services to individuals rather than other companies. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Travelers seeking accommodation: Individuals utilizing platforms like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, and KAYAK to reserve hotels, resorts, hostels, and various other types of vacation rentals worldwide.
- Travelers seeking transportation: Individuals booking flights, rental cars, and ground transportation services through platforms such as Priceline, Rentalcars.com, Agoda, and KAYAK.
- Diners seeking restaurant reservations: Individuals using OpenTable to discover and book tables at restaurants globally.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Glenn D. Fogel, Chief Executive Officer and President
Glenn D. Fogel joined Booking Holdings (then Priceline.com) in February 2000. He has served as Chief Executive Officer and President since January 2017, and as CEO of Booking.com since June 2019. Before joining the company, Mr. Fogel worked as a trader at a global asset management firm and as an investment banker specializing in the air transportation industry. He previously held roles as Vice President at Morgan Stanley (1997-2000) and an Investment Banker at Kidder, Peabody & Co. (1988-1995). As Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning and Executive Vice President, Corporate Development from 2009 to 2016, he was responsible for global mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances, including leading the acquisitions of Booking.com, KAYAK, OpenTable, Rentalcars.com, and Agoda. Mr. Fogel is a graduate of Harvard Law School and earned a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School.
Ewout Steenbergen, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ewout Steenbergen became Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Booking Holdings on March 15, 2024. Prior to this role, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at S&P Global Inc. since 2016. At S&P Global, he was also appointed President, Engineering Solutions in 2022 when S&P merged with IHS Markit, and he led Kensho Technologies. The Engineering Solutions Division at S&P Global was divested. Before S&P Global, Mr. Steenbergen was Executive Vice President and CFO of Voya Financial, Inc., and held various leadership positions at ING Group. He holds master's degrees in Actuarial Science from the University of Amsterdam and Business Administration from the University of Rochester and Nyenrode University.
Peter J. Millones, Jr., Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Peter J. Millones, Jr. has served as Booking Holdings' General Counsel since January 2001 and as Executive Vice President since April 2003. Before joining the company, Mr. Millones was with the law firm of Latham & Watkins LLP.
Paulo Pisano, Chief Human Resources Officer
Paulo Pisano has been Chief Human Resources Officer of Booking Holdings since August 2021. He also served as Senior Vice President and Chief People Officer of Booking.com starting March 2020. His background includes significant experience in human resource management at an international level, with prominent positions at companies such as Vodafone and Unilever.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Booking Holdings Inc.'s business:
-
Intense Competition, AI Disintermediation, and Platform Dependency
Booking Holdings Inc. faces significant threats from intense competition within the online travel industry, including rivals like Google, Airbnb, and Expedia. A major evolving risk is the potential for disintermediation by generative AI (Gen AI) and AI-powered assistants developed by large technology companies. These AI solutions could directly facilitate travel and dining reservations, bypassing traditional online travel platforms and eroding Booking Holdings' market share by collapsing the traditional travel funnel into a single conversational interface. Furthermore, Booking Holdings relies heavily on performance marketing, particularly on Google, which itself is a competitor, creating a dependency on a platform that also vies for market share.
-
Regulatory and Compliance Risks
Booking Holdings Inc.'s global operations expose it to a complex and evolving web of regulations, which can significantly impact its business practices. Notably, the company faces heightened scrutiny under the European Union's Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA). Booking.com has been designated as a "Very Large Online Platform" (VLOP) under the DSA and is expected to be designated as a "gatekeeper" under the DMA, subjecting it to extensive new rules and requirements that incur substantial compliance costs and efforts. Additionally, the company is under regulatory investigation concerning its use of AI in consumer pricing strategies, with the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability scrutinizing how algorithms might influence pricing. Local regulations pertaining to alternative accommodations also present ongoing compliance challenges.
-
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Uncertainty
The travel industry is highly susceptible to macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and unforeseen events such as pandemics or natural disasters. These factors can lead to abrupt shifts in consumer travel behavior, directly impacting demand for Booking Holdings' services, bookings, and pricing strategies. Consumer confidence, particularly in key markets like the United States and Europe, is a critical driver of discretionary travel spending. As a cyclical stock, Booking Holdings is vulnerable to more significant declines during economic recessions compared to the broader market. The company's international exposure also means it faces risks from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The emergence of advanced AI-powered travel planning and booking engines, particularly from major technology companies or new AI-native platforms. These systems could offer highly personalized travel itineraries, compare options across a vast array of suppliers, and facilitate direct bookings in a conversational or automated manner, potentially bypassing traditional online travel agencies (OTAs) like Booking.com, Priceline, and KAYAK. This shift could disintermediate Booking Holdings by allowing consumers to plan and book trips without needing the aggregation and comparison services that form the company's core business model, similar to how Netflix disrupted Blockbuster by offering a fundamentally different mode of consumption.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Booking Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: BKNG) operates in several large addressable markets globally through its various brands. Here's an overview of the market sizes for its main products and services:
- Global Online Travel Market: The global online travel agencies (OTAs) market size was valued at approximately USD 663.70 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,316.67 billion by 2033. Another estimate for the global online travel market size was USD 622.6 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 1,438.4 billion by 2034.
- Online Accommodation Booking: The global online accommodation booking market size was valued at approximately USD 365.50 billion in 2025. Other estimates place the market between USD 340.92 billion and USD 583.20 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow to USD 683.92 billion by 2034.
- Online Rental Car Reservation Services: The global online car rental platform market size was valued at USD 101.76 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 109.29 billion in 2025. It is expected to further grow to USD 193.47 billion by 2033.
- Online Flight Reservation Services: The global online airline booking platform market size was anticipated to reach USD 243.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 502.1 billion by 2035. Another report states the market was valued at USD 270.55 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 521.40 billion by 2032.
- Online Restaurant Reservations: The global online restaurant reservation system market size was valued at USD 443 million in 2025. Another estimate places the global market at US$ 485 million in 2025, with a projection to reach US$ 915 million by 2032.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is strategically positioning itself for sustained revenue growth over the next two to three years by focusing on several key drivers:
-
Advancements in Artificial Intelligence and the "Connected Trip" Vision: The company is heavily investing in generative AI to enhance the entire traveler journey, from discovery and planning to booking assistance and customer service. This focus on AI-powered capabilities is integral to Booking's "Connected Trip" strategy, aiming to seamlessly integrate accommodations, flights, rental cars, and attractions into a single, intuitive ecosystem, thereby driving conversion gains and improving the overall customer experience.
-
Expansion and Market Share Gains in Under-penetrated Regions: Booking Holdings identifies the U.S. and Asia as significant growth opportunities. While already a dominant player in Europe, the company is strategically investing in these markets, including through localized strategies with brands like Agoda in Asia, to capture additional market share.
-
Growth in Alternative Accommodations: The company continues to prioritize the expansion of its alternative accommodation listings and is investing in improving the host and guest experience, particularly in the U.S., where it sees substantial potential for growth.
-
Enhancement and Expansion of Loyalty Programs: The Genius loyalty program is a crucial driver for repeat bookings and customer retention. Booking Holdings plans ongoing enhancements to this program, which has already seen higher-tier members (Level 2 and 3) account for a significant share of room nights, thus fostering increased engagement across its platforms.
-
Diversification of Offerings through Payments/Fintech and Growth in Flights/Attractions: By processing more of its own payments, Booking aims to offer new financial services like "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) options and better manage foreign exchange spreads, creating high-margin revenue streams. Additionally, the continued strong growth in flight bookings and attractions contributes significantly to the "Connected Trip" strategy and overall revenue diversification.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Booking Holdings spent over $23 billion on share buybacks from 2022 to 2024.
- Specific annual repurchases include $6.6 billion in 2022, $10.4 billion in 2023, and $6.5 billion in 2024.
- As of December 31, 2025, the company had $21.8 billion remaining in its stock buyback authorization.
Outbound Investments
- Booking's most recent acquisition was Etraveli Group, an online meta-search platform, acquired in November 2021 for $1.84 billion.
- The company was most active in acquisitions in 2021, completing two in that year.
- As of December 31, 2023, the company held equity investments in DiDi Global Inc. ($150 million) and Grab Holdings Limited ($127 million).
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $429 million in FY 2024, $345 million in 2023, $368 million in 2022, and $304 million in 2021.
- The primary focus of these expenditures is on improving the platform's search and personalization capabilities, optimizing marketing spend, automating customer service, and investing in its technology stack, including AI and machine learning.
- The company plans to reinvest approximately $700 million above baseline in 2026, focusing on areas like GenAI, Connected Trip, Asia and U.S. growth, advertising, OpenTable's international expansion, and fintech and loyalty offerings.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 245.37 |
| Mkt Cap | 80.7 |
| Rev LTM | 13,909 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,754 |
| FCF LTM | 3,462 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,561 |
| CFO LTM | 3,994 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,255 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 80.7 |
| P/S | 4.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.9 |
| P/EBIT | 19.1 |
| P/E | 35.8 |
| P/CFO | 18.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 12.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $192.71 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 152.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/31/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $175.56 | $184.68 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 9.8% | 4.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.3% | 35.4% |
| Downside Capture | -16.70 | 93.34 |
| Upside Capture | 51.73 | 59.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 14.6% | 31.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.11 | 0.56 | 0.42 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | -5.63 | -0.51 | -0.10 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| Down Beta | 0.58 | 1.04 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Up Capture | 230% | 123% | 55% | 66% | 50% | 92% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 35 | 63 | 127 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 99% | 23% | -4% | 99% | 98% | 99% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 28 | 63 | 125 | 347 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -11.8% | 35.3% | -0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.4% | 19.6% | 0.25 | 47.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.0% | 12.9% | 1.20 | 31.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.8% | 28.1% | 0.72 | -8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 28.8% | 19.7% | 1.16 | -26.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.5% | 13.8% | 0.80 | 20.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.9% | 43.1% | -1.30 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 17.2% | 32.8% | 0.53 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.9% | 24.1% | 0.21 | 59.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.2% | 0.58 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.5% | 0.75 | -0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 19.5% | 0.32 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 36.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 53.1% | 0.39 | 25.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 14.0% | 32.5% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 22.2% | 0.51 | 61.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 60.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | -0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.31 | 16.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 44.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -9.2% | -7.4% | 6.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -13.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/28/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -9.2% | -7.4% | 6.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.1% | -11.1% | -6.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.7% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.9% | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 17.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | -1.0% | 2.9% | -5.8% |
| 5/4/2022 | 3.3% | -1.5% | 11.1% |
| 2/23/2022 | -7.1% | -12.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/3/2021 | 0.1% | 5.5% | -13.2% |
| 8/4/2021 | 5.9% | 5.5% | 10.3% |
| 5/5/2021 | -2.5% | -7.1% | -1.0% |
| 2/24/2021 | -7.0% | -6.9% | -7.1% |
| 11/5/2020 | 0.9% | 11.0% | 20.4% |
| 8/6/2020 | 0.2% | 2.4% | 9.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Room Nights Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 6.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -10.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -10.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -7.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 12.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | ||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Growth | 12.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Room Nights Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 5.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Actual: 12.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 11.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Room Nights Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 11.1% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.5% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Gross Bookings Growth | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 33.3% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 9.0% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Revenue Growth | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 37.5% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q3 2025 |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.00 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 2.10 Bil | -48.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 3.95 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Room Nights Growth | 7.0% | ||||||
| 2025 Gross Bookings Growth | 11.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 12.0% | 20.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2025 | ||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,169,536 | Form | |
| 2 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 163.67 | 62,500 | 10,229,456 | 69,572,577 | Form |
| 3 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,081,600 | Form | |
| 4 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 185.36 | 16,726 | 3,100,294 | 55,268,868 | Form |
| 5 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 4292.10 | 669 | 2,871,413 | 54,063,261 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,169,536 | Form | |
| 2 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 163.67 | 62,500 | 10,229,456 | 69,572,577 | Form |
| 3 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,081,600 | Form | |
| 4 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 185.36 | 16,726 | 3,100,294 | 55,268,868 | Form |
| 5 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 4292.10 | 669 | 2,871,413 | 54,063,261 | Form |
| 6 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4149.75 | 452 | 1,875,688 | 76,948,864 | Form |
| 7 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4093.72 | 550 | 2,251,544 | 77,760,146 | Form |
| 8 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4043.49 | 10 | 40,435 | 78,989,577 | Form |
| 9 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 2032026 | 5105.36 | 40 | 204,214 | 4,288,503 | Form | |
| 10 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5208.09 | 60 | 312,486 | 101,844,265 | Form |
| 11 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5181.34 | 953 | 4,937,816 | 101,631,954 | Form |
| 12 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5191.15 | 15 | 77,867 | 3,566,320 | Form | |
| 13 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 1052026 | 5290.38 | 40 | 211,615 | 4,655,536 | Form | |
| 14 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5464.94 | 442 | 2,415,502 | 112,402,826 | Form |
| 15 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5414.53 | 571 | 3,091,695 | 113,759,213 | Form |
| 16 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5362.00 | 15 | 80,430 | 3,764,124 | Form | |
| 17 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 12032025 | 5000.00 | 40 | 200,000 | 4,600,000 | Form | |
| 18 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5062.25 | 170 | 860,582 | 109,248,328 | Form |
| 19 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5007.69 | 400 | 2,003,074 | 108,922,184 | Form |
| 20 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 4820.35 | 443 | 2,135,414 | 106,775,542 | Form |
| 21 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5030.00 | 15 | 75,450 | 3,606,510 | Form | |
| 22 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 11102025 | 5000.00 | 40 | 200,000 | 4,800,000 | Form | |
| 23 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 5000.00 | 200 | 1,000,000 | 7,570,000 | Form |
| 24 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5254.04 | 388 | 2,038,568 | 118,709,788 | Form |
| 25 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5141.53 | 625 | 3,213,454 | 118,162,552 | Form |
| 26 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5291.98 | 15 | 79,380 | 3,873,729 | Form | |
| 27 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 5516.92 | 1,013 | 5,588,637 | 130,237,864 | Form |
| 28 | Quinlan, Larry | Revocable Trust | Sell | 9162025 | 5511.80 | 64 | 352,755 | 722,046 | Form | |
| 29 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 5500.00 | 15 | 82,500 | 4,108,500 | Form | |
| 30 | Quinlan, Larry | Revocable Trust | Sell | 9092025 | 5587.11 | 64 | 357,575 | 1,089,486 | Form | |
| 31 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 8182025 | 5476.89 | 1,013 | 5,548,094 | 134,841,131 | Form |
| 32 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 7162025 | 5695.00 | 1,013 | 5,769,036 | 151,674,962 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 4, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Harvard Management Co Inc | $147.1 Mil | 8.1% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $65.0 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $99.6 Mil | 5.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $69.2 Mil | 5.5% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| C Partners Holding GmbH | $16.2 Mil | 5.1% | 7 | TRIM -27.7% | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.5% | 24 | TRIM -26.1% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $184.3 Mil | 4.0% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $26.2 Mil | 3.2% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $7.5 Mil | 1.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $9.8 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | ADD +2585.0% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $96.0 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $32.2 Mil | 1.5% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $9.8 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | ADD +2585.0% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $14.0 Mil | 0.5% | 16 | ADD +82.0% | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $97.9 Mil | 0.9% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Aspen Grove Capital, LLC | $69.5 Mil | 12.0% | 204 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $19.9 Mil | 1.5% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $16.1 Mil | 2.7% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $15.9 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $11.9 Mil | 3.9% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Rovida Investment Management Ltd | $5.4 Mil | 0.7% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -55.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $10.1 Mil | 0.1% | 36 | TRIM -48.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| C Partners Holding GmbH | $16.2 Mil | 5.1% | 7 | TRIM -27.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.5% | 24 | TRIM -26.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.1 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -7.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $184.3 Mil | 4.0% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| Harvard Management Co Inc | $147.1 Mil | 8.1% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $99.6 Mil | 5.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $96.0 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $69.2 Mil | 5.5% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $65.0 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $50.4 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $32.2 Mil | 1.5% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.1 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $26.2 Mil | 3.2% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -55.5% | 13F |
BKNG Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Booking is a highly profitable market leader navigating a quantifiable, near-term travel slowdown. Conviction is grounded in its superior 34.3% operating margin and strategic initiatives like the 'Connected Trip'. The upcoming Q2 results provide a clear catalyst to confirm if the company's expected second-half recovery is on track.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Marketplace / AggregatorRevenue = (Volume of Reservations) x (Average Booking Value) x (Effective Take Rate / Margin) Operating leverage from scale and marketing efficiency, driven by the mix of direct vs. paid traffic.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the company's strategic initiatives are gaining traction, potentially offsetting near-term, geopolitically-driven weakness in core bookings.
- Connected transactions grew in the high teens range in Q1.
- US room night growth accelerated to the low teens.
- The merchant model mix grew to 72% from 67% year-over-year.
- The company is gaining share, with 15% TTM revenue growth.
- The direct booking channel represents a mid-fifties percentage of room nights.
PRIMARY RISK
The recent deceleration in booking volumes may not be a temporary shock but the start of a broader cyclical downturn, making current growth expectations unattainable.
- Q1 room night growth slowed from the prior quarter.
- Q2 room night growth is guided to slow further to between 2% and 4%.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was lowered at the midpoint.
- The Middle East conflict impacted Q1 room night growth by 2 percentage points.
- Management expects a higher impact from the conflict in Q2 than in Q1.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Room Nights Booked | 338 million for Q1 2026 - Decelerating | The YoY growth rate for room nights slowed for the first time in at least three quarters. Management attributed the slowdown to the conflict in the Middle East, estimating a 2 percentage point impact on growth. Excluding this, growth would have been approximately 8%, which would have been in line with prior quarters. |
| Gross Bookings | $53.8 billion for Q1 2026 - Stable | Gross bookings growth remains robust in the mid-teens, fluctuating within a narrow 14-16% range over the last three quarters. Management noted a similar 2 percentage point impact from the Middle East conflict on this metric as well. |
| Connected Transactions | Grew in the high teens range (Q1 FY2026) | Measures trips that include bookings across more than one vertical (e.g., accommodation plus flight). Growth in this metric indicates success in the 'Connected Trip' cross-selling strategy and increased customer engagement. |
Geopolitical Shock vs. Strategic Momentum
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the current slowdown is a temporary, contained geopolitical issue, while underlying initiatives like the 'Connected Trip' and US share gains continue to build a stronger long-term growth base.
CORE TENSION
Can 'Connected Trip' growth (high teens) and US share gains offset the geopolitical slowdown that cut Q2 room night growth guidance to 2-4%?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears in the immediate term, as management's own Q2 guidance confirms a worsening slowdown before any potential second-half recovery.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the geopolitical conflict as an accelerant or cover for a broader, cyclical slowdown in travel demand, arguing that lowered guidance is the start of a negative revision cycle.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/4/2026 | Q2 Earnings Miss and Weak Outlook Watch: Q2 room night growth versus guidance; any revision to guidance; commentary on booking trends. |
10/20/2026 | Hilton Earnings Report Watch: Peer Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/2/2026 | Marriott Earnings Report Watch: Peer Marriott International (MAR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Deteriorating Marketing Efficiency Watch: Marketing expense as a percentage of gross bookings; management commentary on performance marketing ROI trends and direct channel mix. |
No set date | Adverse European Regulatory Ruling Watch: Announcements from European competition authorities (e.g., CNMC, DGCCRF); news of formal charges or significant fines; updates on class action filings. |
Tuesday, August 4 at 4:30 p.m. ET | Q2 Financial Results Watch: The company will report its second quarter 2026 financial results and hold a conference call. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-27 | OpenTable and Heineken Partnership Details: OpenTable partnered with Heineken USA on a pilot program in Houston that allows diners to designate a driver directly in the booking process. | +5.3% $177.46 -> $186.79 |
2026-07-08 | OpenTable Loyalty Program Enhancement Details: OpenTable introduced Gold Tables, a new loyalty benefit in the U.S. giving diners with Gold status access to tables at in-demand restaurants. | -3.5% $181.95 -> $175.52 |
2026-06-03 | Priceline AI Assistant Upgrade Details: Priceline introduced the next generation of Penny, its AI-powered travel assistant, integrating technology from Anthropic into its proprietary AI stack. | +0.2% $166.79 -> $167.07 |
2026-04-28 | Q2 Guidance Lowered Details: On its April 28 earnings report, the company issued new, lower guidance for Q2 2026 Room Nights Growth, Gross Bookings Growth, Revenue Growth, and Adjusted EBITDA Growth. | -2.0% $177.07 -> $173.54 |
2026-04-28 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q1 room nights grew 6% year-over-year, with gross bookings up 15% and revenue up 16%. Management estimated the Middle East conflict impacted room night growth by 2 percentage points. | -2.0% $177.07 -> $173.54 |
2026-02-18 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q4 room nights grew 9% year-over-year, with gross bookings and revenue both up 16%. | -3.2% $164.81 -> $159.53 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: BKNG trades at roughly 38% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.5x the market), around the 71st percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
EXPE - Expedia
Direct Peer ComparisonExpedia offers a similar online travel agency model, allowing for a direct comparison of execution and market share shifts within the same industry structure.
ABNB - Airbnb
Alternative Accommodations FocusAirbnb provides exposure to the alternative accommodations segment of the travel market, which may exhibit different growth and demand characteristics than Booking's hotel-centric model.
A highly profitable global travel aggregator navigating near-term geopolitical demand shocks while investing in a long-term strategic shift towards an integrated, multi-product 'Connected Trip' ecosystem.
Booking Holdings is the dominant online travel agent, generating substantial free cash flow from its massive scale. The company is currently managing a slowdown in travel demand related to the Middle East conflict, which has impacted growth. Strategically, it is focused on evolving from a simple booking tool to an integrated 'Connected Trip' platform, cross-selling lower-margin but engagement-driving products like flights and attractions, while also investing heavily in GenAI to improve efficiency and personalization.
Sustained acceleration in 'Connected Trip' transactions, continued market share gains in the U.S., and evidence that GenAI investments are driving a higher mix of direct, more profitable traffic.
A prolonged travel downturn due to geopolitical or macroeconomic factors, margin erosion from the 'Connected Trip' mix shift that is not offset by volume growth, or a significant loss of market share to new AI-powered travel agents or Google's integrated offerings.
Quarterly fluctuations in average daily rates (ADRs) or short-term stock underperformance relative to the S&P 500.
Repricing Catalyst
A faster-than-expected recovery in global travel demand as geopolitical conflicts subside, or evidence that the company's AI and 'Connected Trip' investments are creating a defensible moat and accelerating profitable growth.
Online Travel & Related Services (Single Segment)
$27.7B TTM (100% of Total)What It Is
The company facilitates reservations for a broad array of travel services to consumers globally. This includes accommodations (hotels, motels, resorts, homes, apartments), flights, rental cars, airport taxis, vacation packages, tours, activities, and cruises. It also provides restaurant reservation services to consumers and management services to restaurants.
Who Pays & How
Travel service providers ('partners') pay commissions for the demand generated and bookings facilitated through the company's widely recognized brands. In the 'merchant' model, the company processes the traveler's payment, providing convenience and payment flexibility for both parties. Restaurants and advertisers pay for reservation services and customer referrals, respectively.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.