Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $110.49 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Distributors
Arrow Electronics (ARW)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $110.49Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Arrow Electronics (ARW) experienced a stock movement of -12.2% due to several key factors: **1. Cautious Fourth-Quarter 2025 Guidance.** Arrow Electronics' outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 presented a cautious picture, with revenue guidance of $7.80 billion to $8.40 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $3.44 to $3.64. The midpoint of this revenue guidance fell approximately 4.4% below consensus analyst expectations of $8.47 billion, contributing to negative investor sentiment. **2. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Downgrades.** Following the third-quarter 2025 earnings report, analyst sentiment turned largely bearish. Multiple firms, including Wells Fargo and Zacks, issued downgrades and reduced their price targets for ARW. The consensus rating shifted to "Reduce," with an average target price of $102.00, below the prevailing share price. For instance, Wells Fargo & Company lowered its price objective from $98.00 to $94.00 and assigned an "underweight" rating on October 31, 2025. **3. Mixed Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings with Margin Pressure.** While Arrow Electronics reported a beat on non-GAAP EPS for the third quarter of 2025 at $2.41, exceeding analyst projections, its revenue of $7.71 billion slightly missed the consensus estimate of $7.76 billion. Furthermore, the company faced margin compression, with the operating margin declining to 2.8% from 3.2% in the same quarter of 2024, and the gross margin contracting to 10.8% from 11.5%. These mixed results, particularly the revenue miss and margin pressure, raised investor concerns and led to a reported 2.47% fall in the stock in after-hours trading following the announcement on October 30, 2025. **4. Initial Imposition of U.S. Trade Restrictions.** In early October 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) added Arrow's China and Hong Kong affiliates to its Entity List due to allegations that components distributed by these entities were found in drones used by Iran-backed groups. Although these restrictions were later reversed on October 19, 2025, their initial imposition likely caused significant market apprehension and contributed to a decline in the stock price during early October. **5. Leadership Change.** On September 16, 2025, Arrow Electronics announced a leadership change, with Bill Austen becoming the interim President and Chief Executive Officer. Changes in executive leadership can sometimes introduce uncertainty for investors, potentially impacting stock performance during the transition period.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARW Return | 15% | 38% | -22% | 17% | -7% | -4% | 29% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 41% | -23% | 39% | -2% | 50% | 175% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARW Win Rate | 58% | 83% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 60% | 40% | 63% | 48% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARW Max Drawdown | -52% | 0% | -32% | 0% | -11% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -3% | -36% | -5% | -14% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MU, AMAT, ADI, AVT, DIOD. See ARW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 244 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 238 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 532 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 275.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 887 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MU, AMAT, ADI, AVT, DIOD
In The Past
Arrow Electronics's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.3% | 3.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arrow Electronics
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 172.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 71.6 |
| Rev LTM | 25,554 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,723 |
| FCF LTM | 1,001 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 362 |
| CFO LTM | 2,318 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,457 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 71.6 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 21.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -22.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global components | 25,420 | 28,788 | 26,358 | 20,503 | 20,251 |
| Global enterprise computing solutions (ECS) | 7,687 | 8,336 | 8,120 | 8,171 | 8,666 |
| Total | 33,107 | 37,124 | 34,477 | 28,673 | 28,917 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global components | 1,459 | 1,961 | 1,432 | 780 | -10 |
| Global enterprise computing solutions (ECS) | 367 | 409 | 390 | 354 | 426 |
| Corporate | -355 | -301 | -265 | -240 | -308 |
| Total | 1,471 | 2,068 | 1,557 | 895 | 108 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global components | 15,129 | 15,002 | 12,953 | 10,510 | 10,253 |
| Global enterprise computing solutions (ECS) | 6,051 | 6,124 | 5,954 | 5,719 | 5,480 |
| Corporate | 546 | 637 | 629 | 825 | 668 |
| Total | 21,726 | 21,763 | 19,536 | 17,054 | 16,401 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |