Tearsheet

Arrow Electronics (ARW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $110.49 | Market Cap: $5.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Distributors

Arrow Electronics (ARW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $110.49
Market Cap: $5.7 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and 5G & Advanced Connectivity. Themes include AI Chips, Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -58%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.8%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ARW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Arrow Electronics (ARW) experienced a stock movement of -12.2% due to several key factors: **1. Cautious Fourth-Quarter 2025 Guidance.** Arrow Electronics' outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 presented a cautious picture, with revenue guidance of $7.80 billion to $8.40 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $3.44 to $3.64. The midpoint of this revenue guidance fell approximately 4.4% below consensus analyst expectations of $8.47 billion, contributing to negative investor sentiment. **2. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Downgrades.** Following the third-quarter 2025 earnings report, analyst sentiment turned largely bearish. Multiple firms, including Wells Fargo and Zacks, issued downgrades and reduced their price targets for ARW. The consensus rating shifted to "Reduce," with an average target price of $102.00, below the prevailing share price. For instance, Wells Fargo & Company lowered its price objective from $98.00 to $94.00 and assigned an "underweight" rating on October 31, 2025. **3. Mixed Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings with Margin Pressure.** While Arrow Electronics reported a beat on non-GAAP EPS for the third quarter of 2025 at $2.41, exceeding analyst projections, its revenue of $7.71 billion slightly missed the consensus estimate of $7.76 billion. Furthermore, the company faced margin compression, with the operating margin declining to 2.8% from 3.2% in the same quarter of 2024, and the gross margin contracting to 10.8% from 11.5%. These mixed results, particularly the revenue miss and margin pressure, raised investor concerns and led to a reported 2.47% fall in the stock in after-hours trading following the announcement on October 30, 2025. **4. Initial Imposition of U.S. Trade Restrictions.** In early October 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) added Arrow's China and Hong Kong affiliates to its Entity List due to allegations that components distributed by these entities were found in drones used by Iran-backed groups. Although these restrictions were later reversed on October 19, 2025, their initial imposition likely caused significant market apprehension and contributed to a decline in the stock price during early October. **5. Leadership Change.** On September 16, 2025, Arrow Electronics announced a leadership change, with Bill Austen becoming the interim President and Chief Executive Officer. Changes in executive leadership can sometimes introduce uncertainty for investors, potentially impacting stock performance during the transition period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ARW Return15%38%-22%17%-7%-4%29%
Peers Return24%41%-23%39%-2%50%175%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ARW Win Rate58%83%33%58%50%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%60%40%63%48%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ARW Max Drawdown-52%0%-32%0%-11%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-3%-36%-5%-14%-26% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MU, AMAT, ADI, AVT, DIOD. See ARW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventARWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven244 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven108.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven238 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-27.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven38.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven532 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-73.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven275.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven887 days1480 days

Compare to MU, AMAT, ADI, AVT, DIOD


In The Past

Arrow Electronics's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Arrow Electronics (ARW)

Better Bets than Arrow Electronics (ARW)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ARW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Arrow Electronics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ARWMUAMATADIAVTDIODMedian
NameArrow El.Micron T.Applied .Analog D.Avnet Diodes  
Mkt Price110.95234.16268.63278.2449.3151.33172.56
Mkt Cap5.7262.7214.4137.64.12.471.6
Rev LTM29,38937,37828,61310,38722,4951,43025,554
Op Inc LTM8169,8098,6232,630604331,723
FCF LTM941,6685,8233,6783331871,001
FCF 3Y Avg512-1,4436,4573,439212113362
CFO LTM19117,5257,7054,1624742592,318
CFO 3Y Avg6039,1977,7884,3104002272,457

Growth & Margins

ARWMUAMATADIAVTDIODMedian
NameArrow El.Micron T.Applied .Analog D.Avnet Diodes  
Rev Chg LTM3.2%48.9%6.6%7.1%-2.3%10.4%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.8%20.3%4.4%-0.6%-3.9%-8.8%-2.2%
Rev Chg Q13.0%46.0%7.7%24.6%5.3%12.0%12.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%10.5%1.9%5.8%1.3%3.0%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM2.8%26.2%30.1%25.3%2.7%2.3%14.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.8%-1.1%29.4%27.5%3.6%8.2%6.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%3.7%0.5%1.8%-0.1%-0.7%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM0.6%46.9%26.9%40.1%2.1%18.1%22.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%30.3%28.5%39.5%1.8%14.3%21.4%
FCF/Rev LTM0.3%4.5%20.4%35.4%1.5%13.1%8.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.7%-11.5%23.7%31.5%1.0%7.1%4.4%

Valuation

ARWMUAMATADIAVTDIODMedian
NameArrow El.Micron T.Applied .Analog D.Avnet Diodes  
Mkt Cap5.7262.7214.4137.64.12.471.6
P/S0.25.05.111.30.21.73.4
P/EBIT7.618.515.944.38.829.517.2
P/E13.122.021.460.118.638.521.7
P/CFO32.810.719.028.39.29.514.8
Total Yield7.6%4.8%5.6%3.3%8.0%2.6%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.3%0.9%1.6%2.6%0.0%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.3%-2.4%4.4%3.2%4.5%3.9%4.2%
D/E0.50.10.00.10.70.00.1
Net D/E0.50.0-0.00.00.7-0.10.0

Returns

ARWMUAMATADIAVTDIODMedian
NameArrow El.Micron T.Applied .Analog D.Avnet Diodes  
1M Rtn-0.4%-0.2%13.2%19.1%3.2%-3.6%1.5%
3M Rtn-10.8%97.4%72.3%13.8%-4.6%-2.5%5.6%
6M Rtn-7.6%127.1%66.7%27.8%-1.2%7.1%17.5%
12M Rtn-8.5%135.5%48.1%27.8%-8.4%-19.4%9.7%
3Y Rtn4.0%335.3%158.6%73.2%19.3%-43.9%46.2%
1M Excs Rtn-0.4%-0.2%13.3%19.1%3.2%-3.6%1.5%
3M Excs Rtn-17.8%83.3%64.7%7.7%-12.0%-9.3%-0.8%
6M Excs Rtn-22.3%112.4%52.0%13.1%-15.9%-7.6%2.8%
12M Excs Rtn-21.2%126.5%41.7%16.2%-20.4%-34.6%-2.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-68.0%254.1%93.9%6.1%-50.2%-114.4%-22.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Global components25,42028,78826,35820,50320,251
Global enterprise computing solutions (ECS)7,6878,3368,1208,1718,666
Total33,10737,12434,47728,67328,917


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Global components1,4591,9611,432780-10
Global enterprise computing solutions (ECS)367409390354426
Corporate-355-301-265-240-308
Total1,4712,0681,557895108


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Global components15,12915,00212,95310,51010,253
Global enterprise computing solutions (ECS)6,0516,1245,9545,7195,480
Corporate546637629825668
Total21,72621,76319,53617,05416,401


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,589,140
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.9%
Average Daily Volume753,474
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.76
Basic Shares Quantity51,695,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023213202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023504202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022209202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022804202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022505202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021