Arena (AREN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.48 | Market Cap: $212.3 MilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Arena (AREN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $4.48Market Cap: $212.3 MilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 42%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 38% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -140% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 96x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% | Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 221% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 294% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 121% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 42%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 38% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Advertising, Social Media & Creator Economy, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Ad-Tech Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -140% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 96x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 221% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 294% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 121% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AREN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Arena Group Holdings, Inc. (symbol: AREN) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 24.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 3, 2025. On August 31, 2025, the stock price was approximately $5.66, and by December 3, 2025, it had fallen to $4.28. This downturn can be attributed to several key factors.
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss and Revenue Decline: The company reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings around November 13, 2025, revealing that its earnings per share (EPS) of $0.14 missed the expected $0.19. Additionally, total revenue of $29.8 million fell significantly short of the forecasted $43 million. This substantial miss on both top and bottom lines likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and a 5.37% drop in the stock price on the day of the announcement. While net income increased, the revenue underperformance overshadowed this positive aspect.
2. Revenue Headwinds from Search Algorithm Changes: The Arena Group faced considerable challenges due to "significant headwinds in traffic volatility from algorithmic changes in the industry". These industry-wide search updates negatively impacted organic traffic, particularly within the lifestyle and sports categories, directly contributing to an 11% year-over-year decline in total revenue in Q3 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AREN Return | -34% | 0% | 1902% | -78% | -44% | 233% | 457% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 24% | -25% | 25% | 3% | 7% | 84% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AREN Win Rate | 8% | 0% | 58% | 42% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 27% | 35% | 18% | 35% | 27% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AREN Max Drawdown | -50% | 0% | 0% | -82% | -76% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -28% | -8% | -17% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AREN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -87.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 713.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -56.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 698 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -72.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 262.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 995 days | 120 days |
Compare to Z, ZIP, STUB, WSHP, GOOGL
In The Past
Arena's stock fell -87.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/13/2022. A -87.7% loss requires a 713.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold Arena Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AREN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Arena
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,466 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7 |
| FCF LTM | 78 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 122 |
| CFO LTM | 217 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 226 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/EBIT | -19.5 |
| P/E | -3.0 |
| P/CFO | 33.9 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -1.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 37.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 24.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -49.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports & Leisure | 66 | ||||
| Lifestyle | 37 | ||||
| Finance | 30 | ||||
| Platform | 11 | ||||
| Digital advertising | 109 | 63 | 35 | ||
| Digital subscriptions | 21 | 30 | 28 | 7 | |
| Licensing and syndication revenue | 18 | 8 | |||
| Other digital revenue | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Print advertising | 10 | 9 | 10 | ||
| Print subscriptions | 61 | 79 | 51 | 9 | |
| Advertising | 36 | ||||
| Total | 144 | 221 | 189 | 128 | 53 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4152025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11142024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8192024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5172024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3312023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4012022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Lee Laura Anne | 2132025 | Sell | 1.40 | 55,780 | 78,092 | Form | ||
| 1 | Randall Cavitt | 2132025 | Buy | 1.40 | 55,780 | 78,092 | 407,341 | Form | |
| 2 | Petzel Christopher | 2042025 | Sell | 1.35 | 25,010 | 33,764 | Form | ||
| 3 | Randall Cavitt | 2042025 | Buy | 1.35 | 25,010 | 33,764 | 317,490 | Form | |
| 4 | Petzel Christopher | 1222025 | Sell | 1.23 | 25,000 | 30,750 | 30,762 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |