Alico (ALCO)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $41.47 | Market Cap: $316.3 MilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Agricultural Products & Services
Alico (ALCO)
Market Price (7/9/2026): $41.47Market Cap: $316.3 MilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Agricultural Products & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 77% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -3.3% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -343% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 19x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -70% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 100% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% Key risksALCO key risks include [1] successfully executing its fundamental strategic transformation from citrus operations to land management and [2] overcoming the substantial revenue gap created by the loss of its primary business and its single largest customer, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 97%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 77% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 23% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, Water Treatment Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -3.3% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -56 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -343% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 19x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -67%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -25%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -70% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 100% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
| Key risksALCO key risks include [1] successfully executing its fundamental strategic transformation from citrus operations to land management and [2] overcoming the substantial revenue gap created by the loss of its primary business and its single largest customer, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alico (ALCO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Offset by Revenue Decline from Strategic Transformation.
Alico announced strong fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended March 31, 2026) on May 11, 2026, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.49, significantly beating consensus estimates of $1.09 by $0.40. Revenue reached $5.34 million, exceeding consensus estimates by over 493%. This performance, driven in part by a $26.9 million land sale completed in January 2026, transformed a prior-year net loss into a net income of $11.4 million. While these positive results provided fundamental support to the stock, total revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 decreased by 71% year-over-year to $5.2 million, reflecting the company's strategic wind-down of its citrus operations to transition into a diversified land company. This significant top-line reduction, inherent in the ongoing business model shift, likely counteracted more substantial stock appreciation.
2. Significant Land Entitlement Approval Tempered by Future Monetization Uncertainty.
On April 30, 2026, Alico secured unanimous approval from the Collier County Board of Commissioners for its Corkscrew Grove East Village project. This key regulatory milestone grants entitlements for up to 4,502 dwelling units and 238,000 square feet of retail and office space across 1,446 acres. While this approval solidifies a long-term value driver from Alico's extensive land holdings, management indicated that the decision on how to monetize this development would be the "next big news item." The forward-looking nature of this monetization strategy likely led investors to adopt a "wait and see" approach, thereby contributing to the stock remaining largely at its existing level rather than experiencing a sustained rally.
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Alico (ALCO) stock has remained largely at the same level since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat Offset by Revenue Decline from Strategic Transformation.
Alico announced strong fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended March 31, 2026) on May 11, 2026, reporting an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.49, significantly beating consensus estimates of $1.09 by $0.40. Revenue reached $5.34 million, exceeding consensus estimates by over 493%. This performance, driven in part by a $26.9 million land sale completed in January 2026, transformed a prior-year net loss into a net income of $11.4 million. While these positive results provided fundamental support to the stock, total revenue for fiscal Q2 2026 decreased by 71% year-over-year to $5.2 million, reflecting the company's strategic wind-down of its citrus operations to transition into a diversified land company. This significant top-line reduction, inherent in the ongoing business model shift, likely counteracted more substantial stock appreciation.
2. Significant Land Entitlement Approval Tempered by Future Monetization Uncertainty.
On April 30, 2026, Alico secured unanimous approval from the Collier County Board of Commissioners for its Corkscrew Grove East Village project. This key regulatory milestone grants entitlements for up to 4,502 dwelling units and 238,000 square feet of retail and office space across 1,446 acres. While this approval solidifies a long-term value driver from Alico's extensive land holdings, management indicated that the decision on how to monetize this development would be the "next big news item." The forward-looking nature of this monetization strategy likely led investors to adopt a "wait and see" approach, thereby contributing to the stock remaining largely at its existing level rather than experiencing a sustained rally.
3. Modest Analyst Price Targets and Valuation Discount Amid Regulatory Hurdles.
During the specified period, analyst sentiment shifted, with the consensus rating moving towards "Hold" by June 2026, and average 12-month price targets ranging from $44.50 to $45.00. These price targets suggested limited immediate upside from Alico's trading range of approximately $41-$42. Furthermore, Alico's shares are estimated to trade at a substantial 50% to 57% discount to their underlying net asset value. This persistent discount is largely attributed to regulatory uncertainty surrounding federal permitting for future land development, which poses an execution risk to the company's strategic pivot. The combination of tempered analyst expectations and a valuation discount tied to ongoing regulatory and execution challenges likely constrained significant upward movement in the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.0% change in ALCO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.16 | 41.15 | 0.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29 | 16 | -43.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 10.8 | 19.1 | 76.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALCO | -0.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.6% | -14.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.9% | 43.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.5% change in ALCO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 204.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.24 | 41.15 | 13.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 44 | 16 | -62.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 6.3 | 19.1 | 204.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.5% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 13.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | -0.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 9.2% | 39.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.6% change in ALCO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 280.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.51 | 41.15 | 26.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49 | 16 | -66.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 5.0 | 19.1 | 280.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 26.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 21.7% | 9.3% |
| Sector (XLP) | 6.4% | 32.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.8% change in ALCO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 492.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.97 | 41.15 | 64.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59 | 16 | -72.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.2 | 19.1 | 492.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8 | 8 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 64.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.1% | 24.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 22.6% | 19.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALCO Return | 25% | -33% | 23% | -10% | 41% | 16% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 46% | -15% | 15% | 9% | -15% | -3% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALCO Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 67% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 46% | 50% | 56% | 42% | 41% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 57% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALCO Max Drawdown | -10% | -45% | -19% | -20% | -15% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -36% | -28% | -22% | -29% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: FPI, LAND, LMNR, FDP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1111 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.7% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2248 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1435 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Alico's stock fell -4.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ALCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1111 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -52.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 108.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2248 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1435 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.0% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.9% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1367 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2669 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Alico's stock fell -4.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 5.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alico (ALCO)
Alico, Inc. (ALCO) operates primarily as an agribusiness and land management company based in Florida. Its business model is structured around two main segments: cultivating citrus and managing its extensive landholdings. Founded in 1960, the company leverages its substantial presence in multiple Florida counties to generate revenue from both agricultural products and various land-use activities.
The Alico Citrus segment focuses on the cultivation of citrus trees across its vast groves. From these operations, the company produces citrus fruit, which is then delivered to two distinct markets: the processed citrus market, primarily for use in juices and other products, and the fresh citrus market, where fruit is sold directly for consumption. This dual approach allows Alico to serve a broad spectrum of demand within the citrus industry.
Complementing its citrus operations, the Land Management and Other Operations segment involves owning and actively managing approximately 83,000 acres of land spread across eight counties in Florida. This land is a significant asset from which Alico derives revenue through various leasing activities. It serves customers seeking land for recreational purposes, grazing, conservation efforts, and mining activities, effectively monetizing its substantial real estate portfolio beyond agricultural use.
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Here are a couple of analogies for Alico (ALCO):
- Think of it as a Weyerhaeuser that grows citrus instead of timber on its vast Florida lands.
- It's like a large-scale Sunkist, but also a significant real estate and land management company in Florida.
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- Citrus Products: Cultivates citrus trees to produce citrus for both fresh and processed markets.
- Land Leasing: Leases its extensive land holdings for recreational, grazing, conservation, and mining activities.
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Alico (ALCO) primarily sells its products and services to other companies, not directly to individual consumers. While the company's public filings indicate a concentration of sales with a limited number of customers in its Alico Citrus segment, it does not publicly disclose the specific names of these major customer companies.
Based on the company's business segments, Alico's major customers generally fall into the following categories:
- For the Alico Citrus Segment:
- Juice Processors: Companies that purchase citrus fruit for processing into various juice products.
- Fresh Fruit Packers and Distributors: Companies involved in packing and distributing fresh citrus fruit to retail markets and other buyers.
- For the Land Management and Other Operations Segment:
- Agricultural and Ranching Businesses: Companies or individuals that lease land for grazing and other agricultural purposes.
- Mining Companies: Entities that lease land for mining activities.
- Conservation and Environmental Organizations/Agencies: Groups or governmental bodies that lease land for conservation, water storage, and mitigation banking purposes.
- Recreational Lessees: This could include companies, groups, or individuals leasing land for hunting, fishing, or other recreational activities.
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- Wedgworth’s Inc.
- Wedgworth’s Service Inc.
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John E. Kiernan, President and Chief Executive Officer
John E. Kiernan became President and CEO of Alico in July 2019, having previously served as the company's CFO starting in June 2015. Before joining Alico, he was the CFO of Greenwich Associates, a private global research-based consulting firm. He also served as Treasurer and Senior Vice President for Capital Markets & Risk Management for Global Crossing until its $3 billion sale to Level 3 in 2011. His career also includes roles as VP of Investor Relations for Misys plc and Director of Corporate Development for IBM. Earlier in his career, Mr. Kiernan spent 12 years as an investment banker specializing in IPOs and M&A for technology companies at Bear Stearns, where he held the title of Managing Director.
Bradley Heine, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Bradley Heine was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Alico effective August 16, 2023. Prior to Alico, he served as the Corporate Controller of Wejo Group Limited, a connected vehicle data solutions company. He also held the position of VP of Accounting at IAC InterActiveCorp. Mr. Heine spent 12 years at Avis Budget Group, a global car rental company, where his roles included Vice President of External Reporting and Technical Accounting and Financial Controller for the EMEA region. He began his career as an auditor with Deloitte & Touche.
Mitch Hutchcraft, Executive Vice President, Real Estate
Mitch Hutchcraft serves as the Executive Vice President of Real Estate for Alico. Before his tenure at Alico, he worked for 17 years as the Vice President of Real Estate for King Ranch, where he was involved in land acquisition, protection of assets from changing regulations, long-term value enhancement of real estate assets, public policy, and operational enhancement through real estate projects. Mr. Hutchcraft led King Ranch's legal, entitlement, and strategic planning activities for the property now known as "Kingston" for almost eight years.
James E. Sampel, Chief Information Officer
James E. Sampel has been the Chief Information Officer of Alico, Inc. since December 2015. Before joining Alico, he was CIO and Managing Director Global Operations of Greenwich Associates, a research-based consulting firm for the financial services industry. His prior experience also includes serving as Director of Information Technology for 454 Life Sciences Corporation and Manager of Advanced and Emerging Technology for Perkin Elmer. He earned his M.B.A. in Information Systems from Pace University and his B.S. in Electronics Engineering Technology from DeVry University.
Mary Molina, Chief Administrative Officer
Mary Molina serves as the Chief Administrative Officer of Alico.
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Strategic Transformation and Real Estate Development Risks
The most significant risk stems from Alico's ongoing strategic shift away from citrus farming to land management and real estate development. This involves inherent uncertainties in securing the necessary regulatory approvals and permits for its major land development projects, such as the Corkscrew Grove Villages project, which is crucial for unlocking the value of its land holdings. The successful execution of this transition requires effective resource management, the ability to attract skilled personnel for real estate ventures, and the successful entitlement of land for commercial and residential use, which hinges on navigating complex land use and zoning regulations in Florida. Furthermore, the land development business is highly competitive, and there is no assurance that the company will realize the anticipated revenues and profits from this new strategy, or that it won't incur higher-than-expected costs during this transition. The company's decision to wind down citrus operations has also involved a significant workforce reduction, and there is a risk that this may not result in intended outcomes or could yield unintended consequences and additional costs. 2.Environmental and Weather-Related Risks
While Alico is moving away from citrus production, its extensive land holdings in Florida remain susceptible to adverse weather conditions, including hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Such events can disrupt land development activities, damage existing infrastructure, and negatively impact the value of remaining agricultural lands. Additionally, the company faces ongoing environmental regulations and potential liabilities, particularly concerning water use and the need to comply with best management practices for water quality on its agricultural land holdings. Environmental opposition and potential litigation also pose risks to its development projects. 3.Interest Rate and Macroeconomic Risks
Alico's real estate development strategy is exposed to risks related to fluctuating interest rates and broader macroeconomic conditions. Elevated interest rates could deter developers from acquiring new land or lead to negotiations for lower prices, thereby impacting the profitability and pace of Alico's land sales and development projects. General macroeconomic headwinds, such as inflation, geopolitical instability, and supply chain disruptions, could also adversely affect the company's financial performance and strategic initiatives in the real estate market. The company also has variable rate debt, exposing it to interest rate risks that could lead to higher interest expenses.AI Analysis | Feedback
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Alico, Inc. (ALCO) is strategically transforming from primarily a citrus agribusiness to a diversified land management and real estate development company in Florida. Consequently, the addressable markets for its main products and services are shifting away from citrus production towards its land holdings and their various uses.
Land Management and Leasing Market (Florida)
The Land Leasing industry in Florida is estimated to be worth approximately $2.5 billion in 2026. This market includes the leasing of real estate without permanent buildings, encompassing manufactured home sites, vacant lots, and grazing land. The industry has experienced an average annual growth rate of 2.3% from 2020 to 2025.
Alico's land management programs include fee-generating or revenue-sharing agreements with various operators, such as citrus growers, cattle operators, mining operators, sugarcane producers, and sod farming and leasing. Florida also has over 4 million acres of conservation land, with the state allocating more than $567 million to land conservation in 2024.
Real Estate Development Market (Florida)
Alico is also focusing on real estate development, with management estimating its current landholdings, comprising approximately 53,371 acres, could be valued between $650 million and $750 million. Approximately 25% of these holdings have potential for commercial and residential development. In 2024, more than 72,000 acres of agricultural land in Florida were converted for residential, solar, and commercial developments, highlighting the significant demand for land in the state due to population growth.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Alico (ALCO)
- Strategic Land Sales and Monetization: Alico is actively executing a strategy to unlock value from its extensive land portfolio through strategic land sales. The company has reported significant land sales, with $7.7 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and a total of $34.5 million year-to-date through January 2026, including an additional $26.8 million sale post-quarter. Alico's outlook for fiscal year 2025 anticipated land sales potentially exceeding $50 million. This ongoing land monetization is a primary driver of future revenue as the company transitions its business model.
- Increased Land Leasing for Diversified Agricultural Operations: As Alico winds down its citrus operations, it is shifting its focus to leasing its farmable land for diversified agricultural partnerships. The company achieved 97% utilization of its approximately 32,500 farmable acres through new lease agreements in January 2026, which is expected to provide more stable and predictable revenue streams.
- Growth in Rock and Sand Royalties and Other Land Management Activities: Revenue from the Land Management and Other Operations segment has shown significant growth, increasing by 77% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. This growth is primarily attributed to higher rock and sand royalties and an increase in leasing income.
- Real Estate Development Initiatives: Alico is advancing key real estate development projects, such as the "Corkscrew Grove Villages" master-planned community. This project involves the entitlement process, with a significant decision from Collier County anticipated in 2026, indicating the potential for long-term, high-value development to contribute to future revenue growth.
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Share Repurchases
- Alico's Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program of up to $50 million on March 25, 2025.
- As of September 30, 2025, no shares had been repurchased under this program.
- The repurchase program is scheduled to expire on April 1, 2028.
Share Issuance
- In July 2025, Alico granted shares of common stock to directors Adam H. Putnam (930 shares), Katherine R. English (596 shares), and Toby K. Purse (633 shares) under the company's Amended and Restated Stock Incentive Plan of 2015.
- These share issuances were made with no cash consideration.
- The number of outstanding shares increased from 7,628,639 at September 30, 2024, to 7,645,360 at September 30, 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Alico is undergoing a strategic transformation to wind down its citrus production after the 2024/2025 harvest and shift its focus to diversified land usage and real estate development.
- The company announced the creation of Corkscrew Grove Villages, a master-planned development on approximately 4,660 acres, which includes over 6,000 acres of permanent conservation areas.
- In 2025, Alico supported the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District's partnership with the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) through approximately $5 million in financing for wildlife corridor infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Alico Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Alico Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.3 |
| Rev LTM | 88 |
| Op Inc LTM | 22 |
| FCF LTM | 13 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 13 |
| CFO LTM | 16 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -15.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alico Citrus | 41 | 45 | 38 | 90 | 106 |
| Land Management and Other Operations | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Total | 44 | 47 | 40 | 92 | 109 |
| $ Mil | 2003 | 2001 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citrus | 4 | 5 | |||
| Ranch | 2 | 2 | |||
| Sugarcane | 1 | 3 | |||
| General Corporate | -5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| Agriculture | 5 | 11 | 6 | ||
| Real Estate | 4 | 1 | 11 | ||
| Total | 8 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 21 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alico Citrus | 174 | 384 | 415 | 396 | 419 |
| Land Management and Other Operations | 26 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 |
| Other Corporate Assets | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 202 | 399 | 428 | 409 | 433 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $41.15 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/1973 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $40.92 | $38.41 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 0.6% | 7.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| Downside Capture | -23.29 | 4.50 |
| Upside Capture | -44.34 | 32.82 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -17.5% | 8.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.61 | -0.48 | -0.17 | -0.01 | 0.18 | 0.49 |
| Up Beta | -0.75 | -0.30 | 0.02 | -0.14 | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| Down Beta | -0.72 | -0.20 | -0.47 | -0.25 | -0.01 | 0.49 |
| Up Capture | -44% | -50% | -9% | 21% | 27% | 30% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 68 | 134 | 392 |
| Down Capture | -63% | -77% | -31% | -0% | 9% | 78% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 33 | 56 | 115 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 27.3% | 22.8% | 0.98 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 4.9% | 13.4% | 0.11 | 31.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 21.2% | 12.5% | 1.26 | 8.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 27.8% | 0.70 | 7.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 18.7% | 1.06 | 0.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.7% | 13.9% | 0.62 | 28.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -41.4% | 42.8% | -1.13 | 7.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 5.3% | 30.1% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.6% | 13.4% | 0.27 | 23.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.60 | 28.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 18.3% | 0.79 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 19.5% | 0.30 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.8% | 18.9% | 0.05 | 32.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.1% | 53.5% | 0.41 | 17.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ALCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALCO | 5.7% | 32.0% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.5% | 14.8% | 0.38 | 28.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 36.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 6.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.4% | 18.0% | 0.28 | 18.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 36.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 12.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/15/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | 1.3% | -1.0% | 1.9% |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.5% | -0.0% | -2.0% |
| 11/24/2025 | 4.9% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | 0.4% | -0.5% | 2.7% |
| 5/13/2025 | 3.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 0.8% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| 12/2/2024 | -1.3% | 3.7% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2024 | 4.5% | -2.0% | 4.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.0% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -15.2% | -9.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | 1.3% | -1.0% | 1.9% |
| 2/4/2026 | -0.5% | -0.0% | -2.0% |
| 11/24/2025 | 4.9% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | 0.4% | -0.5% | 2.7% |
| 5/13/2025 | 3.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% |
| 2/12/2025 | 0.8% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| 12/2/2024 | -1.3% | 3.7% | -3.1% |
| 8/5/2024 | 4.5% | -2.0% | 4.8% |
| 5/6/2024 | -9.4% | -6.0% | -8.9% |
| 2/7/2024 | 2.6% | 1.2% | -3.7% |
| 12/6/2023 | 2.5% | 5.1% | -2.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.4% | -5.2% | -9.3% |
| 5/4/2023 | -2.9% | -2.2% | 4.7% |
| 2/6/2023 | -3.3% | -3.1% | -6.1% |
| 12/13/2022 | -9.5% | -15.2% | -9.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | -8.5% | -7.9% | -5.1% |
| 5/9/2022 | 3.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.4% | -7.6% | -4.9% |
| 12/7/2021 | -1.4% | -1.1% | 6.8% |
| 8/5/2021 | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| 5/5/2021 | 3.0% | 1.7% | 7.7% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.4% | -1.2% | -1.8% |
| 12/8/2020 | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 8/6/2020 | -0.8% | -0.8% | -7.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.0% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 4.9% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.5% | -15.2% | -9.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/13/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 12/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/13/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 12/07/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 12/08/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 12/05/2019 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 14.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 14.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Cash | 40.00 Mil | -20.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Debt | 45.37 Mil | 29.6% | Raised | Guidance: 35.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 14.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Cash | 50.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Net Debt | 35.00 Mil | ||||||
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Agricultural Products & Services Resources |
| AgFunder Network Partners |
| The Packer |
| CropLife |
| Agri-Pulse |
| USDA Data |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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