Where Did UPS Fall Behind FedEx?
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Shareholders in two companies in the air freight and logistics sector have seen very different trajectories. Over the five years to October 2026, FedEx (FDX) stock rose 80.0%, while United Parcel Service (UPS) fell 36.3%. Was it slower sales at UPS, thinner profits, or investors paying less for each dollar UPS earns?
Who Has Beaten UPS Over Five Years?
UPS has done better than much of its industry, beating 6 of the 11 air freight and logistics companies compared over five years.
The companies with sales growth closest to UPS tell a different story. Three of them beat UPS over the five years: FedEx, Expeditors and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW). The table below shows the first two, and FedEx finished ahead by 116.3 points.
| Company | Sales growth, 3-year average | P/E | 1-year | 3-year | 5-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Parcel Service (UPS) | -2.2% | 18.9x | 24.2% | -18.7% | -36.3% |
| FedEx (FDX) | 1.8% | 16.5x | 61.2% | 69.4% | 80.0% |
| Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) | 0.9% | 28.0x | 67.1% | 78.7% | 68.9% |
Stock price change to 2026-10-22, excluding dividends. Companies in Air Freight & Logistics whose sales grew within 4 points of UPS’s. P/E: latest close over the last four quarters’ earnings per share.
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) also beat UPS, outperforming the delivery giant by 105.3 points. When measured against peers with similar sales growth, UPS’s record appears far weaker than its standing across the broader industry.
Did FedEx Grow Faster Than UPS?
FedEx did grow somewhat faster. Over the last three years, its sales climbed an average of 1.8% a year, while UPS’s sales shrank 2.2% annually. FedEx’s business runs from express transportation to small-package ground delivery.
FedEx expanded its revenue by 12.8% between 2021 and 2026, while UPS experienced a 2.7% decline. This faster sales growth makes up part of the performance gap. Still, the revenue difference remains far smaller than the divide between their stock prices.
Where Did The Gap Come From?
The remainder of the gap comes down to profit per share and the price investors pay for those earnings. Between 2021 and 2026, UPS recorded a 23.3% drop in earnings per share, compared with a 4.8% fall at FedEx. Over those same years, UPS saw its operating margin shrink by 4.0 points, while the margin at FedEx barely moved.
In 2021, investors paid 29.9 times earnings for UPS, against a multiple of 11.2 times for FedEx. Today, the two multiples sit close together, following a decline at UPS and an increase at FedEx. Both factors made the difference: UPS earned less per share and now commands a lower multiple than it did in 2021, while FedEx kept steadier earnings and saw its multiple expand.
The U.S. domestic package business generates most of UPS’s sales, providing 67.1% of revenue in fiscal 2025. Management has been reshaping this operation. During the fiscal Q2 2026 call, management said UPS had eliminated about 2 million pieces a day of lower-quality Amazon volume and further automated its U.S. network.
What To Watch In UPS’s Next Report
Speaking on the July 28, 2026 call, management said it expects to expand margin in its domestic business in both the third and fourth quarters. The company guided to a U.S. domestic operating margin of about 8.8% for the second half of 2026, on its own adjusted basis. That is a forecast, not a result.
When UPS releases its fiscal Q3 2026 report, expected on October 27, 2026, the company’s adjusted U.S. domestic operating margin will be the figure to watch.
How To Act On UPS?
Not necessarily on United Parcel Service alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. Here are two companies from United Parcel Service’s own industry that have beaten it. Over the five years to October 2026, FedEx stock rose 80.0% and Expeditors International of Washington stock rose 69%, while United Parcel Service stock fell 36.3%.
Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.
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