How Will Nucor Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Nucor (NYSE:NUE) is scheduled to report its earnings on Monday, October 26, 2026. The company has a market value of about $58.9 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $36.1 billion in revenue and $4.2 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.9 billion.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Nucor’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 14 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 74% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share falls to 55%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 14 positive 1D returns is 4.7%, and the median of the 5 negative ones is -2.7%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 9.1% and -8.9%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/27/2026 | 7.2% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 4/27/2026 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 14.6% |
| 1/26/2026 | -2.3% | 1.9% | -1.2% |
| 10/27/2025 | 5.4% | 2.7% | 8.4% |
| 7/28/2025 | -2.7% | -5.2% | 2.4% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.9% | 3.4% | -6.6% |
| 1/27/2025 | 3.8% | 7.6% | 10.3% |
| 10/21/2024 | -6.5% | -5.4% | -7.3% |
| 7/22/2024 | -1.1% | -2.4% | -12.2% |
| 4/22/2024 | -8.9% | -8.6% | -10.2% |
| 1/29/2024 | 6.9% | 3.2% | 8.8% |
| 10/23/2023 | 4.8% | 6.0% | 12.3% |
| 7/24/2023 | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 4/20/2023 | 5.5% | -2.1% | -5.0% |
| 1/26/2023 | 8.4% | 11.7% | 3.7% |
| 10/20/2022 | 2.5% | 12.4% | 16.6% |
| 7/21/2022 | 9.1% | 8.1% | 21.1% |
| 4/21/2022 | 3.7% | -6.1% | -28.7% |
| 1/27/2022 | 4.0% | 20.4% | 39.8% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.4% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -5.3% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.1% | 20.4% | 39.8% |
| Max Negative | -8.9% | -8.6% | -28.7% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. The strongest relationship over five years is between the 5D and the following 21 days, at 0.67 across 19 releases: the early move has tended to continue in the same direction. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it can break on any given report.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.67 |
| 3 Years | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.23 |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Steel Dynamics (STLD) usually reports a few days before Nucor, and reported this season on October 20, 2026; its stock fell 0.3% the next day. The table compares Steel Dynamics’ one-day reaction to its own earnings with Nucor’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. It covers the 12 quarters in which Steel Dynamics reported shortly before Nucor. The correlation is -0.04, close to zero: Steel Dynamics’ reaction has told you little about how Nucor’s stock would react.
| NUE Earnings Date | NUE 1D | STLD 1D |
|---|---|---|
| 7/27/2026 | 7.2% | 1.3% |
| 4/27/2026 | 4.7% | 3.3% |
| 10/27/2025 | 5.4% | 5.2% |
| 7/28/2025 | -2.7% | -1.7% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.9% | 4.0% |
| 1/27/2025 | 3.8% | -0.4% |
| 10/21/2024 | -6.5% | 4.0% |
| 7/22/2024 | -1.1% | -0.7% |
| 1/29/2024 | 6.9% | -0.5% |
| 10/23/2023 | 4.8% | -0.3% |
| 7/24/2023 | 3.7% | -3.0% |
| 1/27/2022 | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Correlation | – | -0.04 |
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