How Low Can American Airlines Stock Go?
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American Airlines (AAL) stock lost 18.1% in the three months to October 20, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 3.1%. Investors buying after that drop might assume most of the damage is already done. That expectation is easier to justify if American historically holds up as well as the market during selloffs, and if the airline now earns more and owes less than it did a year ago. How far has American fallen when the whole market sold off, and how long did it stay down?
How Far Has American Stock Fallen In Past Shocks?
American has fallen much further than the broader market during historical shocks. In the 2008-2009 financial crisis, its stock (then trading as US Airways) fell 89%, while the S&P 500 fell 53%. Across the 14 market shocks since 2007, the airline’s average fall was 30.6% against 16.1% for the index.
American has also often taken a long time to recover its losses. Measured from the low, the median recovery took 3.8 months, yet three recoveries took more than a year. The slowest rebound followed the summer 2007 credit crunch and stretched out for 78.3 months, a period encompassing the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Three previous falls have not been made up at all. The stock remains 57.5% below its close of February 20, 2020, the peak before the COVID-19 crash.
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Is American Earning More Than A Year Ago?
American is not earning more, even though the company is selling more. Revenue reached $58.3 billion in the twelve months to June 30, 2026, up 7.5% from a year earlier. Over that same period, the airline’s operating margin dropped to 1.8% from 5.1%. American also swung to a net loss of $326 million, after posting a profit of $567 million the year before.
The company does owe less money. Total debt stood at $35.7 billion on June 30, 2026, down from $37.2 billion a year earlier. Still, that debt represents 445.5% of the airline’s market value, compared with 19.7% for the S&P 500.
American’s Fuel Costs Are Rising Faster Than Revenue
Demand has held up, but American’s fuel bill has grown faster. During its July 23, 2026 call for fiscal Q2 2026, management said total revenue rose 16.3% in the quarter from a year earlier, with premium revenue up 19%. In the same quarter, fuel expense rose 83%.
Fuel costs continued to climb after the quarter ended. Management said expected third-quarter fuel expense had risen by more than $700 million since the beginning of July. On the same call, management planned third-quarter capacity growth of 3% to 5%. Because of the elevated fuel prices, that planned growth is about 2 points lower at the midpoint than the original plan.
Management also cut its forecast for 2026. The company now guides to adjusted earnings per share between a loss of $0.65 and a profit of $0.65. That is break-even at the midpoint, down from a $0.35 midpoint in its April 2026 guidance. American’s third-quarter fuel expense is the figure to watch in its next report, expected on or around October 22, 2026.
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