How Big Could Western Digital Stock’s Next Fall Be?

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Western Digital (WDC) stock has lost 34.5% since July 22, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 3.1%. Shares fell 13% on August 6 alone, after management’s gross margin forecast for fiscal Q1 2027 fell short of the expectations set by rival Seagate, Proactive Investors reported. If the wider market now turns as well, how far has Western Digital stock fallen in past shocks, and how long were holders left waiting?

How Far Has Western Digital Fallen In Past Shocks?

Shares dropped 68% during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, marking the stock’s largest fall across the 15 market shocks it has traded through since 2007. The S&P 500 fell 53% over the same period. Western Digital fell 60% during the 2014-2016 oil price collapse, while the index fell 6.8%. Across all of those shocks, the stock fell 34.8% on average, more than twice the S&P 500’s 15.8% drop.

The way back has usually taken most of a year, and sometimes much longer. Western Digital required a median of 8.7 months from its lowest close to regain its earlier peak close. In one of the 15 shocks, the 2013 taper tantrum, the stock never closed below its starting level. Five of its 14 recoveries from the other shocks took more than a year, though two of them, the oil price collapse and the 2015-2016 China growth scare, track the same slide to a February 2016 low. The wait lasted 12.8 months after the financial crisis and 25.1 months after the oil price collapse.

Western Digital Now Earns More And Owes Less

Western Digital is still getting more for each terabyte of storage it sells. On the August 5 call, management said the average price per terabyte rose by a high-teens percentage from a year earlier in fiscal Q4 2026, up from high single digits the quarter before. The Cloud business generated $3.3 billion, making up 89% of revenue that quarter.

Revenue reached $12.9 billion over the four quarters ended July 3, 2026, up 35.7% from a year earlier. The operating margin climbed to 35.6%, up from 22.4% a year before. Two years earlier, in fiscal 2024, Western Digital made little or no money from its operations. The latest twelve-month operating margin is the highest recorded at any fiscal quarter end in data going back to fiscal 2017.

Debt fell to $1.05 billion at the end of fiscal 2026, down from $7.43 billion two years earlier, and Western Digital now holds more cash than debt.

What Is Getting Harder For Western Digital Now?

Growth in the amount of storage Western Digital ships has slowed, and management expects its gross margin to rise only a little. Exabyte shipments, the total storage capacity the company ships, increased 22% from a year earlier in fiscal Q4 2026. Management said on the August 5 call that this fell below the 25% rise for fiscal 2026 as a whole.

Management guided to an adjusted gross margin of 55% to 56% for fiscal Q1 2027, landing a little above the 54.4% Western Digital earned on the same basis in fiscal Q4 2026. On the same call, management said there will always be quarter-to-quarter variations in gross margin.

Western Digital was still raising its prices per terabyte at its last report, while the margin it forecast sits only slightly above the quarter before. Gross margin is the figure to watch when Western Digital next reports, expected on or around October 22, 2026.

Does This Mean You Should Act On WDC?

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