What Has To Happen Before ExxonMobil Stock Is A Buy?
ExxonMobil (XOM) has returned 52% over the past twelve months (as of October 8, 2026), easily outpacing the S&P 500’s 17.0% gain over the same period. A 22% rally in the last three months alone has pushed shares to just below their year-high. Current buyers may be betting that the high refining margins management described in July will last. After a 52% run, what is a late buyer paying for ExxonMobil?
ExxonMobil Stock Measured On Sales And On Cash
The stock currently trades at 1.9 times its sales. That multiple sits near the top of a ten-year range spanning from 0.7 to 2.2. Investors typically tolerate premium multiples when a business retains more of each sales dollar. Yet ExxonMobil is keeping less. The company recorded an operating margin of 10.7% over the last twelve months, down from 16.8% three years ago.
Earnings and cash provide different views of the same price. ExxonMobil trades at 21.5 times earnings, in line with the S&P 500. Against operating cash flow, however, the stock costs 11.8 times, tracking below the 14.4 multiple of the broader index. This operating cash flow came in at about 1.8 times net income over the last twelve months.
ExxonMobil’s Revenue Is Expected To Drop
Top-line results are not expected to maintain their second-quarter pace. Analysts forecast revenue of $103.0 billion for the third quarter of 2026, marking a step down from the $114.5 billion ExxonMobil reported for the second quarter.
The second quarter was unusual. Revenue rose 44.1% from a year earlier, and management noted on its second-quarter call that supply disruptions shaped the quarter. Management said available refining capacity is lower than it has ever seen. Refining is taking on a larger role at ExxonMobil. Energy Products, the business that makes its diesel, now generates about 23% of its business-line earnings. Five years ago, that share sat at about 9%.
While analysts already expect a fall in sales, management expects a very robust refining market with very high margins to continue. The current stock price appears to assume those refining margins will stay high.
How ExxonMobil Stock Has Moved After Recent Reports
ExxonMobil is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results in late October 2026. Shares have seen little volatility immediately following recent earnings releases. Across the last six reports, the biggest gain in the two trading days after publication was 1.6%, while the steepest fall was 2.2%. Four of those six post-earnings moves were falls.
Deeper selloffs in ExxonMobil have instead aligned with broader market shocks. During the regional banking crisis of 2023, the stock fell about 15%.
What Should ExxonMobil Buyers Watch In The Coming Report?
Buyers should first monitor the operating margin, given that it has fallen in each of the last three years. If the twelve-month margin returns above its three-year average of 11.4%, it would signal ExxonMobil is once again keeping more of each sales dollar. Under that scenario, a buyer at today’s price would not be late. Sales represent the other crucial metric, and they are expected to come down from the second quarter. Revenue landing well short of the $103.0 billion analysts expect would show sales falling faster than forecast. Should that materialize, a buyer at today’s price would indeed be late.
How To Act On XOM?
Now you know XOM better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
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