Which Dates Could Move Meta Stock Most?
Meta Platforms (META) stock returned 26% over the past month, against 0.6% for the S&P 500. The rise followed the September 8 launch of Muse, its personal AI agent app. Management has already guided for capital spending of $130 billion to $145 billion in 2026, so each coming report shows whether sales keep pace. Below are the events most likely to move Meta stock over the next six months.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Meta’s third-quarter 2026 results, against its revenue guide of $61 billion to $64 billion | Third-quarter 2026 results | Either way |
| Youth-related trials in the U.S., which management said may result in a material loss | Before the end of 2026 | Against the stock |
| Meta’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report, which completes a year of $165 billion to $169 billion in guided expenses | Expected on or around January 26, 2027 (fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results) | Either way |
| A judge’s ruling on New Mexico’s request for up to $40 billion in penalties | No date given | Against the stock |
The First Results Since Muse Launched
Meta’s results for the third quarter of 2026 are still to come, and they cover the quarter in which Muse launched. On the July 29, 2026 call, management guided for third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion. Meta’s sales in the second quarter were $60.8 billion, so the low end of that guide is about level with them.
Almost all of those sales come from ads, which brought in $59.4 billion of the second-quarter total. So while the stock rose in September on a new app, these results will mostly be about the ad business. Revenue above the $64 billion top of the guide would show Meta’s sales growing faster than management expected in July.
New Mexico’s Penalty Request
New Mexico asked a judge on October 1, 2026, to order Meta to pay up to $40 billion in penalties, Reuters reported. The request followed a jury finding that the company had misled consumers about the privacy of their data on Facebook.
The New Mexico case is not the only one. Management said on the July 29 call that youth-related trials are scheduled in the U.S. for 2026 and may result in a material loss.
The New Mexico request is the one with a figure on it. Meta earned $68.1 billion over its last twelve months. It would owe more than half of that profit if the judge orders the full amount.
Meta’s January 2027 Earnings Report
Meta is expected to report its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on or around January 26, 2027, after the market closes. That report completes 2026, a year for which management has raised the lower end of its cost forecast. Management now expects total expenses of $165 billion to $169 billion for 2026. For scale, Meta’s revenue over the last twelve months was $228.2 billion.
Meta’s operating income fell 8% from a year earlier in the second quarter, when it booked legal charges and severance costs. Yet management said on the July 29 call that it still expects 2026 operating income above the 2025 figure. Full-year operating income above the 2025 figure would show Meta still growing its profit under the expenses it has forecast.
Can You Sit Through Another Meta Stock Slide?
Meta stock’s worst fall of the past year was 30.1%, from its close on October 29, 2025 to its close on March 27, 2026. Smaller moves have come quickly around earnings. The stock moved 8.9% to 11.3% in two days around each of its last four calls, and three of those moves were falls.
Two of the dates ahead are earnings reports, so moves of that size could come again. But a repeat of the worst fall is the case to plan for. If you could watch Meta stock fall that far again without selling, your holding is small enough to keep through these dates.
Does This Mean You Should Act On META?
Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.