Has Eli Lilly Stock Peaked?
One thing stands out at Eli Lilly (LLY): how many prescriptions are written for Zepbound and Mounjaro, which may be what buyers are betting on. You may think of them as high-priced drugs, but their U.S. prices are now falling. Yet the stock costs 38.2 times earnings, against 21.5 for the S&P 500. That is the tension. So, how much are the two drugs actually selling?
Two Eli Lilly Drugs Sold $14.9 Billion In Q2
Zepbound, Lilly’s obesity drug, and Mounjaro, its drug for type 2 diabetes, brought in $14.9 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Lilly’s total revenue that quarter was $23.0 billion, so the two drugs supplied nearly two-thirds of it.
They also supplied most of the growth. Sales of the two were $6.3 billion higher than in the second quarter of 2025. Management said on the August 5 call that Lilly’s 48% revenue growth was driven by Zepbound and Mounjaro.
More people are taking obesity drugs like Zepbound, and most of them are taking Lilly’s. U.S. prescriptions for such drugs grew 78% in the quarter, management said. About 6 in 10 of those prescriptions were for a Lilly medicine.
Is Eli Lilly Selling Enough To Cover Lower Prices?
So far, yes. Lilly’s U.S. revenue rose 33% in the second quarter, and management said volume growth for Zepbound and Mounjaro was the main reason. That happened while its U.S. price fell 3%, a decline management tied to the same two drugs. Falling prices are the obvious worry for a stock priced well above the market, but Lilly has sold enough extra prescriptions to keep growing.
But prices are falling faster than that figure suggests. Management said the U.S. price was helped by a change in its estimates for rebates and discounts. Excluding that change, the U.S. price fell 9%.
Management also expects Zepbound’s price to keep falling as coverage widens. It said on the August 5 call that the decline is built into its forecast, and that volume growth will more than offset it.
Wider coverage is where the extra volume may come from. A Medicare program began covering obesity drugs like Zepbound on July 1. Management said that with this expansion, 35% more people in the U.S. now have coverage for Lilly’s obesity medicines. Lilly also raised its full-year 2026 revenue forecast to between $85 billion and $87 billion.
Where Eli Lilly’s Volume Growth Could Fall Short
Lilly’s growth could slow in the second half of 2026. Management said the first half included a few one-off gains that it does not expect to repeat. It also said the second half of 2025 had a wave of Mounjaro launches in new countries, so the comparison gets harder.
Growth outside the U.S. could also slow. Lilly’s revenue growth in Europe in the second quarter was driven by Mounjaro volume, management said. But Lilly already leads outside the U.S., and management said growth there now needs the market itself to expand.
Full-year 2026 revenue below $85 billion, the low end of management’s forecast, would show that volume is not offsetting lower prices the way management expects.
How To Act On LLY?
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