What Could Send NVIDIA Stock Higher?

October 2nd, 2026 · by Trefis Team

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NVIDIA’s revenue more than doubled from a year earlier in fiscal Q2 2027, to $96 billion. Investors value the company at about $5.6 trillion. A company that size needs very large new sales to keep growing quickly. NVIDIA (NVDA) has a new product that could supply them, and it is only weeks into its launch. What is this new product, and has it reached customers yet?

NVIDIA’s New Product, Vera Rubin, Has Reached Customers

The new product is Vera Rubin, and customers are already running it. Vera Rubin is NVIDIA’s latest generation of AI systems for data centers, following the Blackwell generation. NVIDIA began production shipments in August 2026, management said on the fiscal Q2 2027 call.

Management expects Vera Rubin to make up about 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. That is a forecast, not a result. Even so, a fifth of data center revenue is a large share for a product that started shipping in August.

Other companies have confirmed the shipments. Supermicro said on September 23, 2026 that it is shipping racks built on Vera Rubin. CoreWeave, a cloud company, said on September 30 that one of its customers runs production workloads on the system. So Vera Rubin moved from first shipments to real customer use by the end of September.

What Could Vera Rubin Be Worth In A Quarter?

Vera Rubin could soon be worth about a fifth of NVIDIA’s largest business, going by management’s forecast. Data center revenue was $89 billion in fiscal Q2 2027, most of the company’s total. A fifth of that fiscal Q2 amount would be about $18 billion in one quarter. The forecast is for fiscal Q3, when management guided total revenue higher than in fiscal Q2. That forecast does not show how much of Vera Rubin’s revenue would replace Blackwell sales.

Vera Rubin could also let NVIDIA sell more into each data center. Management puts NVIDIA’s revenue opportunity at about $40 billion for each gigawatt of data center capacity built on Vera Rubin. With Blackwell the figure was about $25 billion. A gigawatt is a measure of the power a data center uses.

For the whole company, management’s preliminary forecast is revenue growth of about 70% in fiscal 2028.

NVIDIA shares trade 1.8% below their 52-week high. They returned 24% over the past twelve months, against 16% for the S&P 500. With the shares that close to their high, the price may partly assume that sales keep growing quickly.

NVIDIA Says Supply Is Limiting Its Growth

NVIDIA cannot build enough to meet demand, management says. Management called its fiscal 2028 forecast supply-constrained, and expects supply to stay a bottleneck through at least the end of that year. Asked on the fiscal Q2 2027 call what holds supply back, management said its entire supply chain is running flat out.

Cost is a concern too. Memory prices rose more than management expected. Management guided gross margin, the share of sales left after production costs, to about 74% for fiscal Q3 2027. That compares with 75% in fiscal Q2. Management expects a low of 71% to 72% in fiscal Q4.

NVIDIA’s fiscal Q3 2027 results are expected on or around November 17, 2026. Management guided revenue for that quarter to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%. Revenue near that guide would be a sign that supply is arriving as management planned.

Vera Rubin is shipping, and customers are already using it. Supply could still leave NVIDIA shipping fewer systems than it plans. Management already expects gross margin to fall to 71% to 72% in fiscal Q4, before settling at 72% to 73% in fiscal 2028 as price increases take effect. If management reports Vera Rubin at about 20% of data center revenue in November, the rollout is on schedule. A clearly smaller share would mean the rollout is running behind that forecast.

How To Act On NVDA?

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