How Much Upside Is Left In Apple Stock?

Apple (AAPL) stock returned 31% in the twelve months to September 30, 2026, against 15.4% for the S&P 500. If you own the shares, you have been paid well. If you are buying now, you start from a higher price. After a run like that, you need to know what the next three years could add. So how much upside is left in Apple stock?

Image from Pixabay

Apple Stock Would Gain 17.1% In Our Three-Year Scenario

Apple stock would be worth about 17.1% more in three years in our scenario, which is arithmetic and not a forecast. That gain is 5.4% a year.

We grow revenue 12.1% a year, starting from the twelve months to fiscal Q3 2026. We then assume a slightly lower net margin and a lower P/E, the price paid for each dollar of yearly profit. We lower the P/E because today’s level is above the stock’s own average of 32.3. That average is taken from the last twelve quarter-ends, leaving out any reading above 100.

Here are today’s figures against the scenario three years out.

All of the gain comes from Apple selling more. Revenue growth alone would produce more than twice the final gain. About half of that is then lost to the lower P/E, and a little more to the lower margin. The iPhone brought in half of fiscal 2025 revenue, so the gain depends first on phones.

Which Products Does Apple’s Gain Depend On?

Apple’s gain depends on the iPhone and the Mac continuing to sell well. In fiscal Q3 2026, the June quarter, iPhone revenue grew 22% from a year earlier. Mac revenue grew 29%, but the Mac is only 8% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

Management said in the fiscal Q3 2026 call that both products sold better than it had forecast. Apple was left with supply constraints as a result. Management expected the impact of those constraints to be much larger in the September quarter, affecting the iPhone, Mac and iPad. That quarter has ended, and its results are pending.

Management gave no outlook beyond the September quarter, and there is no full-year revenue guide. Apple has since released the iPhone 18 Pro on September 18 and announced its first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, which goes on sale October 23. No reported quarter includes them yet. The growth rate is therefore our assumption alone. Apple’s upside changes if that growth rate is wrong.

What If Apple’s Growth, Margin Or P/E Differs?

Apple’s upside falls if growth or the net margin misses, and it is larger if the P/E stays at today’s level. Here is the three-year upside when one assumption changes at a time.

Apple starts from an unusually fast year. Revenue grew 14.2% in the twelve months to fiscal Q3 2026, against 6.0% in the twelve months before. The year before that, it grew 0.4%.

Revenue growth is the main source of the gain, and its break-even sits closest to Apple’s own record. At revenue growth of 6.4% a year, with the other assumptions unchanged, three years of owning the stock would return nothing. Apple’s revenue grew 6.7% a year over the past three years, barely above that level.

Apple’s upside over three years is modest, and all of it comes from selling more. The case stays intact if iPhone and Mac demand holds up and Apple can supply it. If growth falls back to its three-year pace, Apple stock becomes a riskier bet that would return close to nothing.

How To Act On AAPL?

Now you know AAPL better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.

There is a smarter choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking.

If you’d rather act on AAPL itself:

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