How Big Could DraftKings Stock’s Next Fall Be?
DraftKings (DKNG) stock fell about 22% in the month to September 30, 2026, and peer Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) fell about 26%. Part of the slide followed a September 19 New York Times investigation into how DraftKings targets its promotions, an account the company disputes. The S&P 500 barely moved, so the drop came without a market shock. If a real market shock hits now, would DraftKings stock fall as hard as it did in past ones?
DraftKings Is Bigger And Closer To A Profit
Not necessarily. Today’s DraftKings is a bigger business and much closer to a profit, though a smaller loss did not stop a 38% fall in 2025. Revenue over the last twelve months was $6.2 billion, up from $1.1 billion five years earlier. Most of its fiscal 2025 revenue came from its Sportsbook, with iGaming second, so sports results can swing its sales.
The operating margin is the share of each dollar of sales left after running costs. For DraftKings, it is still negative, which means a loss. That loss shrank from 38% of revenue three years ago to 2.9% over the last twelve months.
Sales are the weaker part. Revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 fell 4.6% from a year earlier. On that quarter’s call, management put the revenue lost to sport results that favored customers at about $80 million. Management kept its 2026 revenue forecast of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion, against $6.1 billion in fiscal 2025. Today’s DraftKings is a different company from the one that fell hardest in 2022.
How Hard Did DraftKings Drop In Past Selloffs?
Much harder than the market: 29% on average across the six market shocks it has traded through. That average counts one shock in which the stock did not fall. The S&P 500 fell about 17% over the same windows. In the 2022 inflation shock, the worst of those six, DraftKings lost 63% while the S&P 500 lost 25%. Shocks over interest rates and valuations, like that one, have been its worst kind. Over its full price history, the stock’s deepest fall was 86%, from a 2021 peak to a 2022 low.
It dropped in five of the six. Four of those drops ended back at the pre-shock high. The median time from the low back to that high was 1.2 months. A holder would least want a repeat of the 2022 fall. It went deepest of the six and was the slowest of the four to recover.
The 2025 tariff shock is the one drop that has not come back. The stock is still 65% below its February 2025 high from before that shock. In the shock itself, the stock fell 38%, against the S&P 500’s 19%. Over the twelve months to June 2025, when that shock ended, the operating loss was already down to 6.2% of revenue. So a smaller loss has not by itself kept the stock from falling hard.
What DraftKings Holders Would Lose, And For How Long
You would lose 6.3% of your whole portfolio in a repeat of 2022, if DraftKings made up 10% of it. That assumes everything else held flat. At 20% of the portfolio, you would lose 12.6%. Then comes the wait. After 2022, the stock took 14 months to climb from its low back to its high from just before the 2022 shock, not its 2021 peak.
The much smaller operating loss is the clearest difference between today’s DraftKings and the company that came out of the 2022 fall. Sales are the less secure part. Revenue against a year earlier in the fiscal Q3 2026 report will show which way sales are heading. Management’s 2026 forecast needs revenue of at least $6.5 billion, against $6.1 billion in fiscal 2025, so a small return to growth would not be enough to meet it. Another decline would be a second straight quarter of falling sales. The case that today’s DraftKings would fall less than in 2022 would then rest mostly on its smaller loss.
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