What Would It Take For Tesla Stock To Move Higher?
Tesla’s clearest route to a higher share price runs through driverless rides, not through selling more cars. That matters now because the stock has trailed the market. Tesla (TSLA) shares lost 11.3% over the past year, while the S&P 500 returned 17.1%. Cybercab rides started in Austin in September, and regulators are already asking questions. How far along is Tesla’s robotaxi service today?
Tesla’s Robotaxi Service Reached Seven Markets By July
Tesla’s robotaxi service is running, but it is still small. Management said on the Q2 2026 earnings call in July that the fleet had reached seven markets. By then the cars had driven more than 380,000 miles with no one supervising them.
The Cybercab is the next piece. Management said on the same call that Cybercab production had started. Rides in the two-seater, which has no steering wheel or pedals, began in limited areas of Austin in September.
Investors wanted more from the Cybercab launch. Tesla shares fell 6% the next day after the update failed to impress, CNBC reported. Tesla gives no separate revenue figure for the fleet. The better question is what the share price already expects of it.
Is Tesla’s Share Price Built On Today’s Profit?
Tesla’s share price is not built on today’s profit. The price appears to assume far more profit than the company earns now. The price-to-earnings multiple is the share price divided by a year of profit per share. Tesla trades at 313.1 times earnings, against 22.4 times for the S&P 500.
Put that in money. At the S&P 500’s multiple, Tesla’s $3.8 billion of yearly net income would be worth about $85 billion. The market values the whole company at $1,190.4 billion. Today’s profit explains only a small part of Tesla’s market value.
The car business is unlikely to close that difference on its own. Tesla’s automotive segment brought in $82.1 billion in fiscal 2025, down 6.3% from fiscal 2024. That fiscal 2025 figure equals 79% of Tesla’s revenue over the last twelve months.
With no revenue figure of its own, the robotaxi service cannot yet be sized against Tesla’s $103.6 billion of yearly revenue. Tesla is spending heavily now on the fleet and other new projects.
Tesla Spends Big While The Fleet’s Size Is Unclear
Tesla expects capital spending of more than $25 billion for 2026. Management expects capital spending to increase further in the second half of 2026. It also said spending will grow for the next two to three years. Expanding the robotaxi fleet is one of the reasons it gave.
Free cash flow, the cash left after that spending, was negative in the second quarter. Management said the main reason was capital spending more than doubling from the prior quarter.
Safety is the larger risk for anyone holding the shares. Management said on the July call that injuring even one person would make regulators clamp down immediately. Federal regulators are already examining the Cybercab. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration asked Tesla whether it properly self-certified the vehicle, with answers due by September 30.
The size of the fleet is also unclear. On the July call, a question cited media reports putting the number of robotaxis in the dozens, not hundreds. Management replied that it tracks unsupervised miles rather than the number of vehicles. That makes miles and new markets the measures to follow at Tesla’s next earnings report.
For the robotaxi service to help support Tesla’s share price, it would have to become far larger than it is today. The safety regulator’s response after September 30 is the first sign of how that goes. Tesla’s robotaxi case strengthens if the fleet widens past seven markets without regulators clamping down.
How To Act On TSLA?
