Your McDonald’s Stock Thesis Has One Loose End
McDonald’s (MCD) has a pricing problem in the United States, its second-largest business. Its value menu of 10 items for under $3 each has not delivered what management expected. The shares lost 19.3% over the past year (as of September 23, 2026), while the S&P 500 returned 13%. The fix is not settled, because it depends on franchisees charging the prices McDonald’s recommends.
Image by andreas160578 from Pixabay
Why Is McDonald’s Value Menu Falling Short?
The menu is falling short partly because many US franchisees did not charge the recommended prices. McDonald’s gives franchisees recommended prices when it launches a menu like this. Restaurants still set their own. Management has said more than a third of US restaurants did not follow that guidance. Items need only cost under $3, so the program leaves a wide range of potential prices for each item, management added.
Low franchisee take-up of the menu came up as a question on McDonald’s second-quarter 2026 call, held in August. Management estimated that its value problems explained about two-thirds of the quarter’s US shortfall in customer visits against its own expectations. US restaurants were already growing more slowly than McDonald’s biggest international markets.
US Restaurants Bring In Two-Fifths Of Revenue
The United States segment brought in $10.5 billion in fiscal 2025, about two-fifths of McDonald’s revenue. US revenue grew about 1% that year, against 8.0% for the International Operated Markets segment.
US comparable sales grew 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026. Management said that was below its expectations, after a solid start to the year.
Can McDonald’s Get Franchisees To Charge Its Prices?
Not quickly, by management’s own account. Fixing value pricing requires conversations with franchisees, management has said, and is not a switch it can flip. Management also called its second-quarter approach a bad trade. McDonald’s had pulled many digital offers to make room for a menu that did not deliver.
In mid-September, McDonald’s told US operators it was revamping its value strategy, Bloomberg reported. At its September 23 investor day, McDonald’s pledged about $8.5 billion to franchisees through 2036. That support includes rent relief and capital contributions.
At the September 23 close, you now pay 19.2 times earnings for the stock, against 22.4 for the S&P 500. That ratio of share price to a year of profit is below 20.7, the low end of McDonald’s own 10-year range. The first hard sign of progress will come from the US sales figures.
You Will See It In US Comparable Sales
US comparable sales in the reports after the September changes are the figure to watch. The third quarter mostly came before them, and July was already slightly negative, management said in August. Growth back above the second quarter’s 0.8% would suggest the pricing changes are working. Growth at or below 0.8% would mean the US value problem has not been fixed.
How To Act On MCD?
