One Reason McDonald’s Stock Looks Better Than Its Price
New restaurants give McDonald’s (MCD) more growth than its weak U.S. results suggest. Value meals and slow visits are part of the story, but not all of it. McDonald’s shares fell 4.8% on September 23, the day the company laid out a new plan at its Investor Day. The price appears to reflect the U.S. troubles and the plan’s cost. So how much are the new restaurants actually adding?
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New Restaurants Lifted McDonald’s Second-Quarter 2026 Sales Growth
The new restaurants lifted total sales well above what the existing ones managed. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, McDonald’s system-wide sales grew 4% in constant currency. System-wide sales count every McDonald’s restaurant, including the ones franchisees run. Management said on the second-quarter earnings call that the 4% reflects the growing contribution from new restaurant openings.
Existing restaurants did much less. Comparable sales, which track restaurants already open, grew 1.3% in the same quarter. Management tied that to a challenging consumer environment, with fast-food industry traffic flat to negative in several of its largest markets. The roughly 2.7-point gap between system-wide and comparable sales growth is about what new restaurants added.
McDonald’s said it remains on track to open about 2,600 gross restaurants by the end of 2026. Gross means the count before any closures are subtracted. Management said it puts money into new restaurants based on the returns it expects them to earn.
Can McDonald’s Fix Its Value Menu Quickly?
Not overnight, by management’s own account. A value fix needs conversations with franchisees and cannot simply be switched on, management said. U.S. comparable sales grew only 0.8% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, below the company’s expectations. In July, U.S. comparable sales were slightly negative. U.S. customer visits in the second quarter fell short of management’s own expectations. Management estimated that poor execution of the value menu caused about two-thirds of that shortfall.
The wider turnaround will also cost money. At its September 23 Investor Day, McDonald’s unveiled about $8.5 billion of support for franchisees through 2036. Roughly $5 billion of that comes by 2030, through rent relief and capital contributions. The shares fell on the day as the plan raised spending concerns.
At its September 23 close, the stock trades at 19.2 times its yearly profit, which is the P/E ratio. That is below 20.7, the low end of its P/E range over the past decade. A $10,000 stake bought a year ago would have been worth about $8,070 on September 23, dividends included.
The openings matter against this backdrop. They let McDonald’s grow sales even while industry traffic stays weak. They do not repair the value menu. The new restaurants answer part of that worry, but the plan to reach 50,000 restaurants has already slipped once.
McDonald’s Has Already Pushed Back Its 50,000-Restaurant Goal
McDonald’s now expects to reach 50,000 restaurants worldwide in 2028. Its earlier plan was to get there by the end of 2027. Management blamed the pressured consumer environment and the rising cost of building new restaurants. On September 23, management said it expects high inflation and flat traffic to keep weighing on the restaurant industry.
Debt is the other risk for a holder. McDonald’s debt equals 32% of its market value, against 21% for the S&P 500.
The next marker is whether McDonald’s hits its target of about 2,600 gross openings by the end of 2026. Hitting that number would support the view that new restaurants give McDonald’s more growth than its U.S. results show. A second delay to the 50,000 goal would undercut that view.
How To Act On MCD?
