Is Now The Right Time For Joby Stock?
A $10,000 holding in Joby Aviation (JOBY) a year ago is now worth about $3,940. The S&P 500 returned 16.5% over the same year. Even after that fall, Joby’s valuation reflects market expectations for electric air taxis that have not yet entered commercial passenger service. Is buying Joby now too early, before those air taxis carry their first passengers?
What Does Joby Stock Cost Before Passengers Fly?
Joby stock is priced at many times its sales, which come mostly from Blade. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 was $39 million, mainly from the Blade passenger business. Blade sells seats on helicopter flights, including an airport service in New York.
The shares already trade 68% below their 52-week high. Even so, they still sit far above the market on sales. Price-to-sales compares what the whole company costs with a year of its revenue. Joby’s figure is 52.1, against 3.1 for the S&P 500.
Joby has no earnings multiple to quote, because it makes a loss. It lost $0.9 billion from operations over the past twelve months, on about $0.1 billion of revenue. Its operations also used $0.6 billion of cash, so profit and cash both point the same way.
The business runs on its cash reserve instead. Joby held about $2.3 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter. That reserve funds the air taxi work for now.
Joby’s Air Taxis Aim To Carry Passengers In 2026
Management said on the second-quarter 2026 call that Joby still targets carrying its first passengers in 2026. In September, Joby began flights in Texas under a White House-backed pilot program, as it works toward commercial passenger service.
Until passengers board, revenue comes mainly from Blade. Management raised its 2026 revenue guide after Blade’s revenue grew 32% from a year earlier in the first half. The new range is $115 million to $125 million, up from $105 million to $115 million. Joby had already booked $63 million of that revenue in the first half. On many Blade routes, management said, the limit is now aircraft availability rather than passenger demand.
At a $6.1 billion market value, the price appears to assume far more revenue than helicopters bring in today. Getting there costs money. Management expects to use $385 million to $415 million in cash in the second half of 2026.
What Will Joby’s Next Report Settle For The Stock?
Joby’s next report will show whether the passenger target and the cash plan still hold. Joby is expected to report in early November, 2026. The report will cover the third quarter of 2026.
Joby stock has usually risen after its reports, but not always. It rose after five of the six reports evaluated between February 2025 and August 2026. The biggest gain was 10.1%, after the November 2025 report, while the only fall among them was 4.3%, after the February 2025 report. Each move runs from the closing price on report day to the closing price two trading days later.
Market shocks have hit harder. In the 2022 inflation shock, Joby fell 51% from peak to trough, against 24% for the S&P 500. A buyer who comes in early carries that kind of swing.
Buying now would look too early if the November report pushes the first passengers past 2026. It would also look too early if management lifts its second-half cash guide above $415 million. Conversely, if the November report confirms the 2026 passenger launch and maintains the cash guide, some near-term uncertainty could diminish, potentially altering the risk-reward profile.
How To Act On JOBY?
