Can Eli Lilly Stock Catch Up To Rivals It Outgrows?
Eli Lilly (LLY) grew revenue 49.6% over the last twelve months, the fastest of the six companies in its peer group. It also runs the group’s widest operating margin, at 49.7%. Yet its 53.4% stock return ranks only third, behind Merck and Johnson & Johnson, which both grew far more slowly. The open question is how long Mounjaro and Zepbound can carry a lead the stock has not matched.
How Far Did Merck’s Stock Outrun Lilly’s On Much Slower Growth?
Merck is the sharpest contrast. Its stock returned 89.6% over twelve months while its revenue grew just 4.6%, on an operating margin of 10.5%. Lilly beat Merck on both measures and still trailed on the stock. Johnson & Johnson follows the same pattern, returning 58.0% on revenue growth of 8.1%.
| LLY | JNJ | MRK | PFE | ABBV | AMGN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,027.1 | 648.0 | 365.8 | 160.6 | 468.9 | 219.3 |
| PE Ratio | 38.5 | 30.8 | 115.3 | 37.1 | 74.3 | 25.1 |
| LTM Revenue Growth | 49.6% | 8.1% | 4.6% | -0.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% |
| LTM Operating Margin | 49.7% | 26.8% | 10.5% | 26.7% | 33.9% | 30.0% |
| 12M Stock Return | 53.4% | 58.0% | 89.6% | 25.4% | 22.8% | 45.9% |
Lilly still beat the S&P 500’s 16.5% return, so this is no forgotten stock. Nor is it cheap. At 38.5 times earnings it costs more than Johnson & Johnson at 30.8 times, yet the market rewarded Lilly less than two slower rivals.
How Much Of Lilly Now Rests On Mounjaro And Zepbound?
In Q2 2026 the two drugs brought in $14.9 billion of Lilly’s $23.0 billion in revenue, close to two-thirds. Lilly medicines took about 6 of every 10 U.S. obesity incretin prescriptions in Q2, by the CFO’s account.
Lilly’s growth comes from volume while prices fall. The CFO said U.S. price declined 3% in Q2 2026, and 9% once changes to rebate and discount estimates are excluded. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, launched July 1, gives 20 million eligible Americans coverage for obesity GLP-1s at $50 a month out of pocket. More patients at falling prices is Lilly’s trade, and it works only while volume outruns price.
What Would Make Lilly’s Lead Show Up In The Stock?
A second half of 2026 that holds its pace. Management raised its 2026 revenue guide to $85 billion to $87 billion. An analyst said the range seemed to imply slower growth in the second half than in Q2. The CFO’s explanation was that management does not expect one-off rebate adjustments to repeat, and that the second half of 2025 was elevated by initial channel stocking for Mounjaro launches in new international markets. He added that management still expects significant growth in dollars, not in percentage terms, in the second half.
The next test is Foundayo, Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill. An analyst called its U.S. launch somewhat slower than anticipated. In a separate answer, management said prescribers had risen to 36,000 from 8,000 at the previous earnings call.
The risk is price. If U.S. price cuts deepen faster than new patients arrive, the growth lead narrows and the valuation has less to rest on. To test that lead on more than one number, see how our scorecard ranks every stock on growth, profitability, stability, resilience and valuation.
So Is Lilly A Better Bet Than The Rivals Beating It?
Perhaps, if you believe the lead lasts. Nobody can settle that today. You are being asked to believe that Lilly can keep adding patients faster than its U.S. prices fall, for long enough that the stock catches up. Before you decide, weigh Lilly against its peers on growth, margin, valuation and return together. Then remember that a peer group is one corner of one industry. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio makes that comparison across the whole market, holding quality businesses with strong margins and cash generation. That portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.