What Could Power The Next Rally In McDonald’s Stock

A new beverage platform running at or above plan in each market it has entered offers McDonald’s stock its clearest evidenced path up from a base left by a year of underperformance.

McDonald’s (MCD) has lost about 12% over the past year and sits roughly 21% below its 52-week high. The company’s own execution missteps in the U.S. knocked the second quarter of 2026 off course. The strongest evidenced path back up runs through a new beverage business selling into the restaurant day’s quieter hours.

A Bad Trade By Management’s Own Account

The U.S. business grew comparable sales just 0.8% in the second quarter of 2026. A new under-$3 Every Day Affordable Price menu arrived in late April while the system pulled back on digital offers, only about 60% to 65% of restaurants are executing the recommended pricing, and management pins about two-thirds of the traffic shortfall against its own expectations on that combination, which the CEO calls a bad trade. The repair is under way, with national digital flash offers returning and marketing dollars shifting toward its proven value offerings, though the CEO says marketing cannot change in Q3 and will not be fully back until 2027. The machine underneath has not cracked: trailing-twelve-month revenue of $27.7 billion is growing 6.3%, ahead of its 4.6% three-year pace, the trailing operating margin of 45.7% is in line with its 45.9% three-year average, and system-wide sales still grew 4% in constant currency in Q2 on new unit openings, with global comparable sales up 1.3%. Accelerating revenue alongside margins that hold through a traffic stumble is the profile of the quality businesses the Trefis High Quality Portfolio holds.

Most Of The Beverage Traffic Arrives After Lunch

The driver with the most evidence is the new beverage platform of crafted sodas, refreshers, cold coffee, and energy drinks. The U.S. soft launch of three refreshers and three crafted sodas came in early May, and by the early-August report the platform was running in line with or above plan across the U.S., Canada, Germany and Australia, with U.S. sales ahead of plan and an energy-drink line next to join the U.S. lineup. More than half of beverage traffic comes after lunch, when restaurants have lower volume and spare capacity. Management reads that as incremental new occasions, and checks on those orders run about 50% above the full-day average.

Germany, the only market that carried the full range in Q2, is already reporting meaningful lift to guest counts and restaurant-level cash flow. Against $27.7 billion of revenue, this is an incremental layer, not a transformation, and management calls beverages a baseline platform built for multiple years of growth, with detail promised for the September 23 Investor Day.

The Proof Will Be Home-Market Comps Turning Positive Again

History argues for a grind rather than a spike: MCD has gained more than 30% in under two months just once since 2010, in 2020. The bear’s doubt is execution across value, restaurant operations, and marketing alike. Roughly a third of U.S. restaurants priced the value menu their own way, and management says U.S. comparable sales were slightly negative in July. The number to watch is U.S. comparable sales over the second half of 2026, with management’s own bar a stronger traffic baseline exiting 2026. A quality franchise sitting among stocks trading well below their 52-week highs is what a disciplined dip-buying screen exists to sort through.

Finding Winners Is Half The Job, Keeping The Gains Is The Other

Spotting the opportunity is the enjoyable half of investing; keeping what it earns is the half that compounds. A position that has grown large enough to matter is worth sizing deliberately rather than by accident. What a position that size would do to your net worth is exactly what the Trefis Wealth team computes, with the same rules-based systematic discipline that runs our High Quality Portfolio. Request a free vulnerability audit of your biggest positions.