How Will Five Below Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. The company has $13 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $4.8 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $457 Mil in operating profits and net income of $359 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Five Below’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 5.9%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -6.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/18/2026 | 10.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.2% | 8.6% | 24.0% |
| 8/27/2025 | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% |
| 6/4/2025 | 5.6% | 3.1% | 6.2% |
| 3/19/2025 | 0.7% | 3.0% | -10.7% |
| 12/4/2024 | 10.5% | 4.3% | -3.1% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.9% | -3.7% | 17.3% |
| 6/5/2024 | -10.6% | -12.2% | -21.6% |
| 3/20/2024 | -15.4% | -12.0% | -28.1% |
| 11/29/2023 | 0.2% | 7.2% | 13.3% |
| 8/30/2023 | -6.0% | -12.2% | -12.1% |
| 6/1/2023 | 7.8% | 11.3% | 15.4% |
| 3/15/2023 | -1.4% | -0.5% | 4.0% |
| 11/30/2022 | 16.5% | 11.0% | 10.0% |
| 8/31/2022 | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% |
| 6/8/2022 | -1.4% | -9.0% | -11.3% |
| 3/30/2022 | -6.5% | -3.3% | -2.5% |
| 12/1/2021 | 5.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% |
| 9/1/2021 | -13.0% | -14.7% | -19.6% |
| 6/3/2021 | 7.0% | 4.9% | 11.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.3% | -10.5% | -11.7% |
| Max Positive | 16.5% | 11.3% | 24.0% |
| Max Negative | -15.4% | -14.7% | -28.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -9.3% | 36.3% | 27.7% |
| 3Y History | -14.6% | 45.5% | 34.5% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Five Below stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Five Below. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIVE Earnings Dates | FIVE | DLTR | TJX | ROST |
| 3/18/2026 | 10.7% | -6.0% | -1.9% | 5.1% |
| 12/3/2025 | 3.2% | N/A* | 2.9% | 10.9% |
| 8/27/2025 | 3.9% | N/A* | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| 6/4/2025 | 5.6% | N/A* | -2.3% | -6.4% |
| 3/19/2025 | 0.7% | N/A* | -5.6% | -7.1% |
| 12/4/2024 | 10.5% | N/A* | 4.8% | 8.1% |
| 8/28/2024 | -0.9% | N/A* | -0.8% | -1.7% |
| 6/5/2024 | -10.6% | N/A* | 6.6% | 9.5% |
| 3/20/2024 | -15.4% | -0.2% | -2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11/29/2023 | 0.2% | N/A* | -1.5% | 7.5% |
| 8/30/2023 | -6.0% | 0.5% | 3.2% | 7.6% |
| 6/1/2023 | 7.8% | -5.2% | -2.9% | -4.3% |
| 3/15/2023 | -1.4% | -5.3% | -4.3% | -7.2% |
| 11/30/2022 | 16.5% | -1.4% | 1.3% | 20.2% |
| 8/31/2022 | 6.3% | -8.9% | -9.0% | -6.2% |
| 6/8/2022 | -1.4% | -0.9% | 2.1% | -12.2% |
| 3/30/2022 | -6.5% | 14.6% | N/A* | 3.8% |
| 12/1/2021 | 5.0% | -8.4% | -7.5% | -12.3% |
| 9/1/2021 | -13.0% | -3.7% | -1.3% | -7.1% |
| CORRELATION | 18.6% | -9.9% | 15.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after FIVE
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