How Will Burlington Stores Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. The company has $20 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $12 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $845 Mil in operating profits and net income of $610 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Burlington Stores’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 45% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 8.7%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -4.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 3/5/2026 | 6.9% | 1.0% | 9.3% |
| 11/25/2025 | -12.2% | -12.5% | 0.9% |
| 8/28/2025 | 5.3% | 7.5% | -5.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -4.5% | -0.1% | -3.3% |
| 3/6/2025 | 8.7% | 2.7% | -0.5% |
| 11/26/2024 | -1.6% | -2.0% | 1.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | -2.1% | -2.0% | -2.8% |
| 5/30/2024 | 17.6% | 17.5% | 19.8% |
| 3/7/2024 | 7.5% | 7.4% | -2.9% |
| 11/21/2023 | 20.7% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| 8/24/2023 | -8.9% | -5.7% | -19.5% |
| 5/25/2023 | -3.8% | -13.5% | -6.2% |
| 3/2/2023 | -2.4% | -0.8% | -10.4% |
| 11/22/2022 | 20.5% | 22.1% | 22.3% |
| 8/25/2022 | -10.2% | -14.4% | -26.1% |
| 5/26/2022 | 8.7% | 11.4% | 0.3% |
| 3/3/2022 | -13.0% | -20.4% | -21.9% |
| 11/23/2021 | 8.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% |
| 8/26/2021 | -9.2% | -13.1% | -12.9% |
| 5/27/2021 | -1.1% | -7.6% | -0.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.6% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 20.7% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.0% | -20.4% | -26.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 4.7% | 25.8% | 1.1% |
| 3Y History | -25.2% | 6.2% | -13.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Burlington Stores stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Burlington Stores. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL Earnings Dates | BURL | TJX | ROST | TGT |
| 3/5/2026 | 6.9% | 3.3% | 8.7% | 5.0% |
| 11/25/2025 | -12.2% | 4.5% | 10.0% | 0.6% |
| 8/28/2025 | 5.3% | -0.8% | 2.4% | -1.9% |
| 5/29/2025 | -4.5% | -3.0% | -8.7% | 2.0% |
| 3/6/2025 | 8.7% | -3.4% | 1.4% | -2.6% |
| 11/26/2024 | -1.6% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | -2.1% | -2.4% | -0.5% | -3.7% |
| 5/30/2024 | 17.6% | 2.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% |
| 3/7/2024 | 7.5% | -5.3% | -2.1% | 1.8% |
| 11/21/2023 | 20.7% | -0.4% | 8.8% | 0.3% |
| 8/24/2023 | -8.9% | -1.1% | 5.1% | -3.6% |
| 5/25/2023 | -3.8% | -3.8% | -2.9% | -12.6% |
| 3/2/2023 | -2.4% | -1.0% | 0.4% | -1.5% |
| 11/22/2022 | 20.5% | 1.4% | 17.7% | 1.5% |
| 8/25/2022 | -10.2% | -5.0% | -1.2% | -4.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 8.7% | 6.5% | -6.2% | 1.0% |
| 3/3/2022 | -13.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| 11/23/2021 | 8.6% | -3.5% | -3.4% | -1.8% |
| 8/26/2021 | -9.2% | 1.2% | -5.8% | 0.6% |
| CORRELATION | -0.8% | 9.3% | -6.6% | |
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