How Will Circle Internet Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Circle Internet (NYSE:CRCL) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 11, 2026. The company has $27 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.7 Bil, and it was operationally loss-making with $-91 Mil in operating losses and net income of $-70 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Circle Internet’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 3 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 2 positive and 1 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
- The percentage remains the same at 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 2 positive returns = 18%, and median of the 1 negative returns = -12%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/25/2026 | 35.5% | 62.3% | 69.2% |
| 11/12/2025 | -12.2% | -22.1% | -15.1% |
| 8/12/2025 | 1.3% | -12.2% | -29.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 18.4% | 62.3% | 69.2% |
| Median Negative | -12.2% | -17.1% | -22.3% |
| Max Positive | 35.5% | 62.3% | 69.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -22.1% | -29.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 97.2% | 91.3% | -63.9% |
| 3Y History | 97.2% | 91.3% | -63.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Circle Internet stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Circle Internet. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRCL Earnings Dates | CRCL | COIN | PYPL | HOOD |
| 2/25/2026 | 35.5% | 30.4% | 13.5% | -22.1% |
| 11/12/2025 | -12.2% | -7.5% | -8.0% | -9.4% |
| 8/12/2025 | 1.3% | -14.6% | -4.9% | 7.5% |
| CORRELATION | 57.4% | -97.4% | -82.7% | |
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