How Will Lumentum Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Lumentum (NASDAQ:LITE) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $68 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $2.1 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $10 Mil in operating profits and net income of $252 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Lumentum’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 7.0%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -6.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | 7.0% | 29.0% | 49.6% |
| 11/4/2025 | 23.6% | 34.0% | 75.9% |
| 8/12/2025 | 0.5% | -1.4% | 37.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 2.8% | 15.7% | 26.7% |
| 2/3/2025 | 2.4% | -2.8% | -20.1% |
| 11/7/2024 | 13.9% | 15.6% | 21.9% |
| 8/14/2024 | 14.8% | 23.9% | 22.5% |
| 5/6/2024 | -6.1% | -0.2% | 2.9% |
| 2/8/2024 | -22.4% | -15.6% | -18.9% |
| 10/30/2023 | 10.3% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| 8/17/2023 | -1.3% | 13.6% | 3.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | -4.0% | -5.8% | 6.1% |
| 2/9/2023 | -1.4% | -2.0% | -15.7% |
| 11/8/2022 | -16.2% | -19.6% | -26.5% |
| 8/16/2022 | -6.9% | -4.8% | -18.0% |
| 5/4/2022 | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.2% |
| 2/3/2022 | -14.4% | -3.1% | -7.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 1.8% | 5.2% | -1.0% |
| 8/18/2021 | 1.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| 5/12/2021 | -16.9% | -9.1% | -1.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 15.6% | 19.6% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -4.0% | -16.9% |
| Max Positive | 23.6% | 34.0% | 75.9% |
| Max Negative | -22.4% | -19.6% | -26.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -2.0% | 28.6% | 29.8% |
| 3Y History | 3.7% | 34.3% | 17.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Lumentum stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Lumentum. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| LITE Earnings Dates | LITE | FFIV | EXTR |
| 2/3/2026 | 7.0% | 1.6% | -0.9% |
| 11/4/2025 | 23.6% | -16.9% | -1.2% |
| 8/12/2025 | 0.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 2.8% | -0.1% | 7.8% |
| 2/3/2025 | 2.4% | 9.4% | -3.5% |
| 11/7/2024 | 13.9% | 10.8% | 5.8% |
| 8/14/2024 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 14.2% |
| 5/6/2024 | -6.1% | -7.4% | -4.3% |
| 2/8/2024 | -22.4% | -0.1% | -8.4% |
| 10/30/2023 | 10.3% | 0.7% | N/A* |
| 8/17/2023 | -1.3% | 3.3% | -8.2% |
| 5/9/2023 | -4.0% | -1.7% | 0.8% |
| 2/9/2023 | -1.4% | -0.7% | 16.7% |
| 11/8/2022 | -16.2% | -10.9% | 9.5% |
| 8/16/2022 | -6.9% | 12.0% | 18.8% |
| 5/4/2022 | 9.0% | -8.2% | 9.6% |
| 2/3/2022 | -14.4% | -7.6% | -0.9% |
| 11/4/2021 | 1.8% | 9.2% | 1.1% |
| 8/18/2021 | 1.8% | 2.9% | -0.5% |
| CORRELATION | 18.0% | -7.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after LITE
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