How Will CNA Financial Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CNA Financial (NYSE:CNA) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $13 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $15 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $1.6 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
CNA Financial’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -1.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/9/2026 | -1.4% | -2.3% | 0.4% |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.1% | 1.5% | 4.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.0% | 7.1% | 12.7% |
| 5/5/2025 | -0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 2/10/2025 | 1.2% | -0.7% | 2.7% |
| 10/21/2024 | -0.6% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
| 7/29/2024 | 1.5% | 0.8% | 6.6% |
| 5/6/2024 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% |
| 2/5/2024 | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% |
| 10/30/2023 | -0.8% | 1.3% | 6.0% |
| 7/31/2023 | -2.0% | 4.8% | -1.0% |
| 5/1/2023 | 0.4% | 2.6% | -3.9% |
| 2/6/2023 | 2.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2022 | -1.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| 8/1/2022 | -3.0% | -5.7% | -5.9% |
| 5/2/2022 | -5.4% | -4.0% | -2.5% |
| 2/7/2022 | 0.0% | 1.1% | -1.7% |
| 11/1/2021 | 2.6% | 2.2% | -6.4% |
| 8/2/2021 | -0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.1% | -2.3% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 7.2% | 7.1% | 12.7% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -5.7% | -6.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 5.7% | 4.3% | -34.4% |
| 3Y History | -28.5% | 16.3% | -24.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of CNA Financial stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before CNA Financial. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNA Earnings Dates | CNA | CB | TRV | HIG | ACGL |
| 2/9/2026 | -1.4% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% | N/A* |
| 11/3/2025 | -1.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | -0.6% | 0.1% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.0% | -3.9% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| 5/5/2025 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 0.2% |
| 2/10/2025 | 1.2% | -2.1% | -1.7% | -2.0% | N/A* |
| 10/21/2024 | -0.6% | N/A* | -1.9% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 7/29/2024 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 7.6% | N/A* |
| 5/6/2024 | 0.3% | 0.9% | 4.5% | 0.0% | 6.5% |
| 2/5/2024 | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 3.4% | N/A* |
| 10/30/2023 | -0.8% | 1.1% | -1.5% | 1.0% | N/A* |
| 7/31/2023 | -2.0% | 4.5% | -0.6% | -5.5% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2023 | 0.4% | 0.5% | -0.4% | 0.6% | 5.0% |
| 2/6/2023 | 2.2% | -6.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | N/A* |
| 10/31/2022 | -1.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 21.0% |
| 8/1/2022 | -3.0% | -1.8% | -0.4% | 0.9% | -1.8% |
| 5/2/2022 | -5.4% | 0.9% | -3.4% | -1.6% | -4.3% |
| 2/7/2022 | 0.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | -2.7% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2021 | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | -0.9% | 4.2% |
| 8/2/2021 | -0.5% | 0.6% | -1.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| CORRELATION | -32.6% | 31.7% | 24.3% | 36.1% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CNA
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