How Will BWX Technologies Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
BWX Technologies (NYSE:BWXT) is set to report its earnings on Monday, May 4, 2026. The company has $20 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.2 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $325 Mil in operating profits and net income of $329 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
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BWX Technologies’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 58% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 3.1%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -2.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/23/2026 | 2.9% | 9.1% | 3.4% |
| 11/3/2025 | -7.2% | -7.9% | -17.3% |
| 8/4/2025 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 4.3% |
| 5/5/2025 | -3.5% | -4.4% | 15.3% |
| 2/24/2025 | 4.2% | 1.6% | 5.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | -2.3% | 5.7% | 9.2% |
| 8/5/2024 | 0.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | 12.9% | 17.4% | 14.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.1% | 1.9% | 6.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% |
| 5/8/2023 | 2.4% | 3.0% | -1.0% |
| 2/23/2023 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| 11/7/2022 | -0.9% | 1.8% | 3.7% |
| 8/8/2022 | -0.6% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
| 5/9/2022 | 0.6% | 3.1% | 8.4% |
| 2/22/2022 | 5.5% | 26.3% | 28.5% |
| 11/1/2021 | -7.6% | -7.2% | -18.4% |
| 8/2/2021 | -3.1% | -4.8% | 1.3% |
| 5/3/2021 | -0.1% | -2.1% | -5.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 5.3% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -4.6% | -5.7% |
| Max Positive | 17.8% | 26.3% | 28.5% |
| Max Negative | -7.6% | -7.9% | -18.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 11.8% | -4.3% | -15.0% |
| 3Y History | -3.3% | -34.4% | -42.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of BWX Technologies stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before BWX Technologies. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT Earnings Dates | BWXT | WWD | AYI |
| 2/23/2026 | 2.9% | 20.1% | N/A* |
| 8/4/2025 | 17.8% | 0.5% | N/A* |
| 5/5/2025 | -3.5% | 8.0% | N/A* |
| 2/24/2025 | 4.2% | -2.4% | N/A* |
| 8/5/2024 | 0.9% | -16.6% | N/A* |
| 2/27/2024 | 12.9% | -3.4% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.1% | N/A* | -9.3% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.6% | 4.1% | N/A* |
| 5/8/2023 | 2.4% | 10.2% | N/A* |
| 2/23/2023 | 2.6% | -10.1% | N/A* |
| 8/8/2022 | -0.6% | -6.5% | N/A* |
| 5/9/2022 | 0.6% | -10.4% | N/A* |
| 2/22/2022 | 5.5% | 6.4% | N/A* |
| 11/1/2021 | -7.6% | N/A* | 6.2% |
| CORRELATION | 22.2% | -100.0% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after BWXT
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