How Will HF Sinclair Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
HF Sinclair (NYSE:DINO) is set to report its earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026. The company has $12 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $27 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $927 Mil in operating profits and net income of $579 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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HF Sinclair’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 15 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 7 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 7 positive returns = 2.8%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -2.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/18/2026 | -10.9% | -14.2% | 4.6% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.2% | -1.8% | -0.9% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.2% | -0.2% | 17.6% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.0% | 8.7% | 21.8% |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.1% | -8.9% | -9.0% |
| 10/31/2024 | -5.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.7% | -11.4% | -6.8% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.8% | 3.7% | -0.7% |
| 2/21/2024 | -1.4% | -0.3% | 4.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | 3.6% | -4.5% | -1.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | 2.8% | 13.7% | 7.6% |
| 2/24/2023 | -5.6% | -2.4% | -10.0% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.6% | -1.6% | -18.2% |
| 8/8/2022 | 1.8% | 11.5% | 15.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.9% | 9.8% | 36.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| # Negative | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.8% | 9.3% | 11.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.4% | -6.8% |
| Max Positive | 4.0% | 13.7% | 36.0% |
| Max Negative | -10.9% | -14.2% | -18.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 10.0% | -15.3% | -1.2% |
| 3Y History | 16.9% | -31.5% | -16.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of HF Sinclair stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before HF Sinclair. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| DINO Earnings Dates | DINO | PSX | CVI |
| 2/18/2026 | -10.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.2% | -0.7% | -5.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | 1.2% | -1.1% | -5.3% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.0% | -0.5% | N/A* |
| 2/20/2025 | -1.1% | 11.6% | 9.2% |
| 10/31/2024 | -5.4% | -1.2% | -33.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.7% | -4.2% | 2.3% |
| 5/8/2024 | 3.8% | -3.0% | N/A* |
| 2/21/2024 | -1.4% | N/A* | -3.0% |
| 11/2/2023 | 3.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% |
| 8/3/2023 | 2.8% | 1.3% | -0.1% |
| 2/24/2023 | -5.6% | 2.8% | -2.1% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.6% | -1.8% | 6.1% |
| 8/8/2022 | 1.8% | -5.8% | -3.8% |
| 5/9/2022 | -0.9% | 3.1% | N/A* |
| CORRELATION | -5.5% | 50.2% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after DINO
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