How Will Monster Beverage Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Monster Beverage (NASDAQ:MNST) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, April 30, 2026. The company has $75 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $2.4 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.9 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Ask yourself – Is holding MNST stock risky? Of course it is. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio mitigates that risk.
- MA Stock: The Math Behind The Upside
- Markets Don’t Lie: The Hidden Risk Priced Into GLW Right Now
- The Smart Way to Own TER: Collect 12% Before You Even Buy
- Structural Risks to Watch For NVDA Stock Over the Next 6 Months
- What Could Set Broadcom Stock on Fire
- What Is Happening With Advanced Micro Devices Stock?
Monster Beverage’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 61% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 60% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 5.3%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -4.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.6% | -11.5% | -17.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% |
| 2/27/2025 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.4% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.1% | 2.2% | -2.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | -10.9% | -8.5% | -3.7% |
| 2/28/2024 | 5.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.9% | 0.2% | -2.5% |
| 2/28/2023 | -2.5% | 1.4% | 2.5% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.5% | 9.0% | 12.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -5.2% | -7.3% | -8.3% |
| 5/5/2022 | 4.4% | 3.2% | 10.0% |
| 2/24/2022 | 5.3% | 3.7% | -2.1% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.4% | 5.1% | -2.4% |
| 8/5/2021 | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 5/6/2021 | -4.0% | -5.8% | -0.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| # Negative | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -7.9% | -2.6% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 9.0% | 12.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.9% | -11.5% | -17.1% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -13.4% | -20.6% | -25.4% |
| 3Y History | -13.9% | -22.8% | -5.0% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Monster Beverage stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Monster Beverage. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MNST Earnings Dates | MNST | PEP | KO |
| 2/26/2026 | -1.6% | 2.9% | 4.8% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.2% | -2.2% | -3.0% |
| 8/7/2025 | 6.4% | -1.0% | 1.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.4% | -2.9% | -1.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | -1.1% | N/A* | -6.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | -10.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% |
| 2/28/2024 | 5.8% | -0.4% | 1.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | 5.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | -4.9% | -0.2% | -2.2% |
| 2/28/2023 | -2.5% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| 11/3/2022 | 7.5% | 5.0% | -0.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | -5.2% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| 5/5/2022 | 4.4% | -1.7% | -2.2% |
| 2/24/2022 | 5.3% | -2.7% | -1.4% |
| 11/4/2021 | 4.4% | N/A* | 1.9% |
| 8/5/2021 | 5.5% | 0.9% | -0.1% |
| CORRELATION | 2.5% | 22.7% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MNST
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as MNST, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.