How Will Allstate Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Allstate (NYSE:ALL) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $56 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $67 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $13 Bil in operating profits and net income of $10 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Separately, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio has outperformed its benchmark to achieve returns exceeding 105% since its inception.
Allstate’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 64% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 3.7%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -3.7%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.9% | -1.2% | 3.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.7% | 7.4% | 3.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 5.7% | 8.7% | 6.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.6% | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.6% | -1.9% | 4.0% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.5% | -0.3% | 10.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.7% | -0.3% | 10.1% |
| 4/18/2024 | 3.8% | 5.7% | 3.8% |
| 1/18/2024 | 0.2% | 3.2% | 6.1% |
| 10/19/2023 | -2.1% | -1.7% | 5.8% |
| 7/20/2023 | 5.9% | 6.8% | 2.0% |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.7% | -2.1% | 2.0% |
| 1/18/2023 | -5.9% | -2.9% | 3.5% |
| 10/19/2022 | -12.9% | -8.1% | -0.4% |
| 7/20/2022 | -5.3% | -4.4% | 8.7% |
| 4/21/2022 | -6.4% | -7.6% | -12.8% |
| 2/2/2022 | 3.4% | 5.9% | 9.1% |
| 11/3/2021 | -7.2% | -9.5% | -13.5% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% |
| 5/5/2021 | 4.1% | 4.2% | 7.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.7% | -2.1% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 5.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% |
| Max Negative | -12.9% | -9.5% | -13.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -4.3% | -38.2% | -47.3% |
| 3Y History | -34.1% | -80.5% | -82.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Allstate stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Allstate. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL Earnings Dates | ALL | PGR | TRV | CB | HIG |
| 2/4/2026 | 3.9% | -3.4% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.7% | -7.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | 5.7% | -1.9% | -1.1% | -4.4% | 2.8% |
| 4/30/2025 | -0.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | -1.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.6% | 1.1% | -0.2% | 0.2% | -0.6% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.5% | -3.4% | -5.6% | -1.2% | -6.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 3.7% | 2.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 8.4% |
| 4/18/2024 | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 10/19/2023 | -2.1% | 1.8% | -2.5% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 7/20/2023 | 5.9% | 8.0% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 4/20/2023 | 0.7% | 0.1% | -1.8% | N/A* | -0.6% |
| 1/18/2023 | -5.9% | N/A* | -0.7% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 10/19/2022 | -12.9% | -1.0% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 7/20/2022 | -5.3% | -4.1% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 4/21/2022 | -6.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | N/A* | N/A* |
| 2/2/2022 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | N/A* |
| 11/3/2021 | -7.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| 8/4/2021 | -0.8% | 0.4% | -1.0% | 1.6% | 6.0% |
| CORRELATION | -12.5% | 6.8% | 22.6% | 38.5% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after ALL
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