How Will Welltower Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Welltower (NYSE:WELL) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $144 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $11 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $355 Mil in operating profits and a net income of $937 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Welltower’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 56% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 2.6%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% |
| 10/27/2025 | -1.6% | -0.2% | 12.5% |
| 4/28/2025 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | 2.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| 10/28/2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 7.0% |
| 7/29/2024 | 0.5% | -0.5% | 8.3% |
| 4/29/2024 | -0.5% | 1.0% | 5.7% |
| 1/22/2024 | -1.0% | -2.7% | 3.3% |
| 10/30/2023 | 2.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% |
| 7/31/2023 | 3.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| 5/2/2023 | 0.2% | 1.3% | -2.8% |
| 2/15/2023 | 3.1% | 0.6% | -8.5% |
| 10/4/2022 | -1.5% | -12.3% | -8.1% |
| 7/13/2022 | -2.2% | -0.6% | -0.8% |
| 4/5/2022 | -2.0% | -1.3% | -7.6% |
| 1/24/2022 | -1.7% | -3.9% | -5.2% |
| 11/4/2021 | 5.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| 7/29/2021 | -1.0% | -1.3% | -1.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -1.3% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.2% | 7.7% | 12.5% |
| Max Negative | -2.2% | -12.3% | -8.5% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 4.7% | -6.5% | -44.4% |
| 3Y History | -35.4% | -63.0% | -68.8% |
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