VLO Stock Surges 8.9% With A 5-day Winning Spree On Analyst EPS Upgrade
Valero Energy (VLO) – a manufacturer and seller of transportation fuels and petrochemicals – hit a 5-day winning streak, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to 8.9%. The company’s market cap has surged by about $5.4 Bil over the last 5 days and currently stands at $66 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 32.8% compared to 0.5% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Rally?
[1] Scotiabank FY2026 EPS Estimate Increase
- EPS estimate raised to $13.75 from $8.60
- Significantly above consensus estimates
- Impact: Strengthened Investor Confidence, Increased Buying Pressure
[2] Favorable Refining Market Conditions
- Global demand for refined products outpacing supply
- Widening crack spreads indicating higher profitability
- Impact: Improved Margin Expectations, Sector-Wide Institutional Interest
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There are several things to fear in VLO stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive (For details, see Buy or Sell VLO).
But here is the real interesting point.
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Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for VLO stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | VLO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 5D (Current Streak) | 8.9% | 0.6% |
| 1M (21D) | 17.8% | -1.3% |
| 3M (63D) | 23.9% | 1.0% |
| YTD 2026 | 32.8% | 0.5% |
| 2025 | 37.0% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | -3.0% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 5.9% | 24.2% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has VLO behaved after prior drops? See VLO Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 90 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 33 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 43 | 21 |
| 4D | 17 | 11 |
| 5D | 21 | 0 |
| 6D | 1 | 1 |
| 7D or more | 8 | 0 |
| Total >=3 D | 90 | 33 |
Key Financials for Valero Energy (VLO)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $144.8 Bil | $129.9 Bil |
| Operating Income | $11.9 Bil | $3.8 Bil |
| Net Income | $8.8 Bil | $2.8 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $29.9 Bil | $32.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $997.0 Mil | $1.5 Bil |
| Net Income | $714.0 Mil | $1.1 Bil |
While VLO stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.