Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Crypto Market Update 10/3/2025: Where Is The Capital Flowing & Why It Matters?
Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.
- Equity was flat yesterday, versus a 1.1% weekly and 3.1% monthly change
- Bonds slipped 0.1% yesterday, after rising 0.1% weekly and 0.6% monthly
- Gold gained 0.8% yesterday and also rose over the week and month
- Commodities jumped 0.3% yesterday but dropped 1.8% weekly, while up 0.9% monthly
- Real Estate rose 0.4% yesterday, matching a 0.4% weekly gain and a -0.02% monthly shift
- Bitcoin declined 0.3% yesterday, following 9.7% weekly and 8.6% monthly moves
| ETF | 1D | 1W | 1M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -0.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
| Bonds | AGG | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| Gold | GLD | 0.8% | 3.1% | 9.5% |
| Commodities | DBC | 0.3% | -1.8% | 0.9% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 0.4% | 0.4% | -0.0% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -0.3% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
Why does it matter?
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- See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
- Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
- Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.
Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management – a Boston area wealth manager – whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.
Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile
| ETF | Return | Volatility | Sharpe | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | 15.1% | 15.2% | 82.0% |
| Bonds | AGG | 1.8% | 5.1% | -11.7% |
| Gold | GLD | 12.5% | 14.4% | 68.4% |
| Commodities | DBC | 4.9% | 16.0% | 21.1% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | 6.0% | 17.6% | 27.2% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | 86.6% | 75.8% | 113.8% |
Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years
How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?
| Equity | Bonds | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | – | 11% | 19% | 11% | 5.0% | 13% | 1.9% | 34% | 24% | 26% | 73% | 70% | 63% | 24% | 37% | 39% |
| Bonds | 11% | 19% | 11% | – | 35% | 35% | 17% | -0.1% | -2.6% | -8.8% | 27% | 36% | 44% | 11% | 7.5% | -3.2% |
| Gold | 5.0% | 13% | 1.9% | 35% | 35% | 17% | – | 26% | 33% | 35% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 2.6% |
| Commodities | 34% | 24% | 26% | -0.1% | -2.6% | -8.8% | 26% | 33% | 35% | – | 23% | 16% | 13% | 9.7% | 11% | 7.7% |
| Real Estate | 73% | 70% | 63% | 27% | 36% | 44% | 13% | 19% | 16% | 23% | 16% | 13% | – | 17% | 24% | 19% |
| Bitcoin | 24% | 37% | 39% | 11% | 7.5% | -3.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 9.7% | 11% | 7.7% | 17% | 24% | 19% | – |
The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order
Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?
| ETF | Inflation Shock | Covid Pandemic | 2018 Correction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity | SPY | -23.0% | -30.4% | -19.3% |
| Bonds | AGG | -14.1% | -2.1% | 1.4% |
| Gold | GLD | -7.7% | -6.3% | 5.0% |
| Commodities | DBC | 20.5% | -23.7% | -16.5% |
| Real Estate | VNQ | -29.8% | -41.6% | -11.1% |
| Bitcoin | BTCUSD | -56.0% | -33.5% | -37.4% |
The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.