Stocks, Bonds, Gold & Crypto Market Update 9/19/2025: Where Is The Capital Flowing & Why It Matters?

September 22nd, 2025 by Trefis Team
SPY: S&P 500 logo
SPY
S&P 500

Here is a quick snapshot of how different asset classes moved yesterday, last week, and the last month.

  • Equity rose 0.2% yesterday and gained over the past week and month.
  • Bonds were unchanged yesterday, after dropping 0.2% last week and rising 1.2% this month.
  • Gold returned 1.1% yesterday and increased over the week and month as well.
  • Commodities fell 0.8% yesterday, with weekly and monthly returns of -0.4% and 1.8% respectively.
  • Real Estate declined 0.7% yesterday, contributing to a -1.2% weekly and 1% monthly change.
  • Bitcoin dropped 1.2% yesterday, with weekly and monthly returns of -0.4% and 1.2% respectively.

  ETF 1D 1W 1M
Equity SPY 0.2% 1.0% 4.0%
Bonds AGG 0.0% -0.2% 1.2%
Gold GLD 1.1% 1.1% 10.0%
Commodities DBC -0.8% -0.4% 1.8%
Real Estate VNQ -0.7% -1.2% 1.0%
Bitcoin BTCUSD -1.2% -0.4% 1.2%

Why does it matter?

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  • See where capital is flowing: Asset class performance reveals investor sentiment, from risk-on rallies to flight-to-safety moves.
  • Track shifts in correlation: Rising correlations reduce diversification benefits and increase portfolio risk during stress.
  • Spot early signs of rotation: Leadership changing across stocks, bonds, or commodities often precedes macro regime shifts.

We take a macro-conscious approach to strategic asset allocation, even within equities – adjusting exposure across sectors and styles in High Quality Portfolio

Capital Flow Patterns Have Governed Historical Risk-Return Profile

  ETF Return Volatility Sharpe
Equity SPY 14.9% 15.3% 79.8%
Bonds AGG 1.8% 5.1% -12.1%
Gold GLD 12.3% 14.0% 71.6%
Commodities DBC 4.7% 16.1% 20.3%
Real Estate VNQ 6.3% 17.8% 30.1%
Bitcoin BTCUSD 85.5% 76.1% 113.2%

Figures are on annualized basis, based on monthly return data for last 10 years

How Stable Is Correlation Between Different Asset Classes?

  Equity Bonds Gold Commodities Real Estate Bitcoin
Equity – 11% | 20% | 11% 4.8% | 13% | 2.0% 35% | 25% | 26% 73% | 70% | 62% 24% | 37% | 39%
Bonds 11% | 20% | 11% – 35% | 35% | 16% -0.2% | -2.5% | -6.7% 27% | 36% | 44% 11% | 7.5% | -3.3%
Gold 4.8% | 13% | 2.0% 35% | 35% | 16% – 26% | 33% | 38% 13% | 19% | 14% 10% | 8.7% | 3.8%
Commodities 35% | 25% | 26% -0.2% | -2.5% | -6.7% 26% | 33% | 38% – 23% | 16% | 14% 9.7% | 12% | 8.0%
Real Estate 73% | 70% | 62% 27% | 36% | 44% 13% | 19% | 14% 23% | 16% | 14% – 17% | 24% | 19%
Bitcoin 24% | 37% | 39% 11% | 7.5% | -3.3% 10% | 8.7% | 3.8% 9.7% | 12% | 8.0% 17% | 24% | 19% –

The figures above are correlations for last 10Y, 5Y and 1Y, in same order

Which Assets Have Seen Most Money Rotation During Market Crashes?

  ETF Inflation Shock Covid Pandemic 2018 Correction
Equity SPY -23.0% -30.4% -19.3%
Bonds AGG -14.1% -2.1% 1.4%
Gold GLD -7.7% -6.3% 5.0%
Commodities DBC 20.5% -23.7% -16.5%
Real Estate VNQ -29.8% -41.6% -11.1%
Bitcoin BTCUSD -56.0% -33.5% -37.4%

The table shows return of different asset classes during market crises – specifically during the period where S&P fell and bottomed

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.