PHM Looks Cheap, But Is It a Value Trap or Treasure?
Here is why we think PulteGroup (PHM) deserves consideration as a value stock.
- Reasonable Revenue Growth: 5.0% LTM and 6.6% last 3 year average.
- Cash Generative: Nearly 7.4% free cash flow margin and 19.9% operating margin LTM.
- No Major Shocks: PHM has avoided any revenue collapses in the last 3 years.
- Modest Valuation: Despite encouraging fundamentals, PHM trades at a PE multiple of 8.2
- Opportunity vs S&P: Compared to S&P, you get lower valuation, higher revenue growth, and better operating margins
As a quick background, PulteGroup provides land acquisition, residential development, home construction, and mortgage loan origination primarily for homebuyers.
| PHM | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | – |
| Industry | Homebuilding | – |
| PE Ratio | 8.2 | 23.5 |
|
|
||
| LTM* Revenue Growth | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | 0.6% | -0.3% |
|
|
||
| LTM* Operating Margin | 19.9% | 18.8% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 21.0% | 17.7% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 7.4% | 13.2% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
But do these numbers tell the full story? Read Buy or Sell PHM Stock to see if PulteGroup still has an edge that holds up under the hood.
- After A 10x Rally, Is Bloom Energy Still A Growth Story?
- At 20x Earnings, Dell Still Looks Affordable Thanks to AI
- Should You Pay Attention To Caterpillar Stock’s Momentum?
- Micron’s AI Rally Is Built On Earnings Growth, Not Enthusiasm
- Nvidia Stock To $300?
- Is Philip Morris International Stock Poised for a Rally?
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
Stocks Like These Can Outperform. Here Is Data
For 65 similar value stocks chosen as of mid 2024, consider the following stats for the subsequent 1 year period.
- Average peak return of 39.3% vs 14.4% for S&P, with maximum peak return of 133%
- Win rate of 60%; win rate represents % of stocks with positive return
- Average 1-year return of 14.6%, similar to S&P’s despite tariff instability
But Consider The Risk
That said, PHM isn’t immune to big drops. It fell nearly 50% in the Dot-Com Bubble and almost 80% during the Global Financial Crisis. The 2018 correction and recent inflation shock both knocked it down about 40%. Even the Covid sell-off pushed it over 60% lower. The stock can hold up well in normal times, but when markets turn volatile, PHM can take a serious hit.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read PHM Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.