Friday Charts: Dreaded Mondays and My Alison Pill Moment
Submitted by Wall St. Daily using our Trefis Contributor Tool
It’s Friday in the Wall Street Daily Nation. (Oorah!)
That means I’m ditching our regular routine of commentary-based articles. Instead, I’m using charts to present some important investment and economic insights.
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This week I’m featuring an embarrassing mistake made by a top celebrity… and me. (Don’t worry, there’s some investment wisdom to be gleaned from the confession, too.)
I’m sharing the one day of the week you can expect stocks to fall.
And lastly, I’m highlighting the latest moves of the U.S. dollar. (Not a fan of currencies? Well, you need to pay attention to this one, because it’s influencing every other asset.)
Let’s get to it…
Climbing Mt. Apple and Eating Crow
The wait is over. The biggest company in the world, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), just announced the biggest product launch in the world: the iPhone 5.
Chief Economist, Michael Feroli, of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) says the launch could add between 0.25% and 0.5% to annualized economic growth in the fourth quarter. He must be smoking some good stuff, right?
Or not!
Here’s a look at the rise of the iPhone, courtesy of comScore (Nasdaq: SCOR).
As you can see, Apple’s iPhone is an increasingly big deal. Each launch adds millions upon millions of users to its customer base.
No wonder investors keep bidding up shares. Since July 24, the stock’s up almost 20%.
Wait a minute. Didn’t some pig-headed analyst predict back then that the stock was destined for a fall? Yup. You got me. I did say that.
Can I just say I had an Alison Pill moment? I didn’t mean to push that button and publish that content to all my followers.
Not buying it? Fair enough, I was wrong about Apple. Forgive me.
I’ll have you know, though, I’m not always wrong. For example…
Sell in May? Try Mondays, Instead
…In early May, I warned against following the market wisdom to “sell in May and go away.” As my colleague, Matthew Weinschenk, shared on Tuesday, “The market’s gone mostly straight up” since June 1.
Digging into the performance, however, reveals an interesting anomaly. We still can’t shake the market’s case of the Mondays.
Over the last five months, the Dow has only risen on Monday twice. It’s fallen during the other 17 Mondays.
Somebody call Yogi Berra. We have déjà vu all over again… and again… and again… (you get the point).
The implications? Sell on Friday and enjoy the weekend. Or better yet, wait to put new money to work until Monday afternoon when stocks go on sale.
Keep Your Eye on the U.S. Dollar
Back in July, I profiled the U.S. dollar’s refusal to go away (see here).
Since that time, though, the buck’s been dented. The U.S. Dollar Index is down about 6%. That’s a massive move in the currency market over such a short period of time.
Interestingly enough, while the dollar’s been falling, nearly every other asset’s been rising. Including oil, gold, silver and, of course, stocks.
Long story short, short-term traders should keep an eye on the dollar.
Any further weakness should lead to additional upside for all other assets. A reversal, however, could present a pullback in other asset prices and, in turn, create compelling buying opportunities.
That’s it for this week. Before you go, though, let us know what you think of this weekly column – or any of our recent work at Wall Street Daily – by sending an email to feedback@wallstreetdaily.com, leaving a comment on our website, or catching us on Facebook or Google+.