Trefis Helps You Understand How a Company's Products Impact Its Stock Price
COMPANY OF THE DAY : CISCO
Cisco reported earnings Wednesday that came in ahead of consensus estimates.
More importantly, gross margins were firm and the company's guidance was positive for the back half of the year.
This is helping boost sentiment for enterprise tech spending, which has been a major overhang for companies like IBM, EMC and others.
See Complete Analysis for Cisco
More importantly, gross margins were firm and the company's guidance was positive for the back half of the year.
This is helping boost sentiment for enterprise tech spending, which has been a major overhang for companies like IBM, EMC and others.
See Complete Analysis for Cisco
Related Companies:
Juniper
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FORECAST OF THE DAY : URBAN OUTFITTERS INTERNET & CATALOG REVENUES
Urban Outfitters reports earnings next week and we are looking for continued growth in its online business which accounts for nearly 40% of our estimated value.
The company has seen robust growth in its mobile channel which is likely to continue.
Given its smaller footprint of physical stores than many of its peers, its online presence is a large portion of the company's success.
Read more...
The company has seen robust growth in its mobile channel which is likely to continue.
Given its smaller footprint of physical stores than many of its peers, its online presence is a large portion of the company's success.
Read more...
RECENT ACTIVITY ON TREFIS
Wal-Mart Still Has Plenty Of Growth Potential Despite Weak Quarter
As expected, Wal-Mart ‘s (NYSE:WMT) Q1 fiscal 2014 results were disappointing as its U.S. comparable store sales (CSS) declined by 1.4%. This can be mainly attributed to weak consumer spending during the quarter due to the payroll tax increase and delayed tax refunds. Also, the unusually long winter impacted sales of weather-sensitive products. However, there were some underlying positives for the retailer, including steady growth in the international business and a firm control over operating expenses. Wal-Mart gained share in most of its international markets and grew its operating income in the U.S. by almost 6%. We expect the retailer’s growth to pick up in the future driven by its focus on improving store traffic, e-commerce growth, and controlled international expansion.
And the Masters of the Universe Say…
Submitted by Sizemore Investment Letter as part of our contributors program In my last article, I noted that “Big Money” managers was wildly bullish on U.S. stocks—74% were bullish and only 7% were bearish. But what about those legendary masters of the universe—the global macro hedge fund managers who, if their reputations are to be believed, hold the fates of companies and even entire countries in the palms of their hands? At last week’s Ira Sohn Investment Conference, we got to hear the latest investment themes from some of the biggest names in the business, including Bill Ackman, Jim Chanos, Stanley Druckenmiller, and David Einhorn, among others. Some of these “smart money” guys haven’t been looking too smart of late. Ackman has taken enormous losses in JC Penney (NYSE: JCP ); at one point, his losses on the investment were over $500 million. He also appears to be on the wrong side of a very large short position in Herbalife (NYSE: HLF ). This year Ackman is recommending Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG ), even though it is sitting near 52-week highs and is trading at a substantial premium to the broader market…after a long run in which consumer staples have outperformed. Ackman is agitating for management change. We’ll see how Ackman’s recommendation plays out, but I wouldn’t expect market-beating returns here. Most of the speakers focused their comments on individual stocks, but there were some “big picture” themes worth noting as well. Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital reiterated his bearish call on Japan, saying that “the beginning of the end has begun.” I agree with Bass’ view on Japan and recently called it “ the short opportunity of a lifetime ” here on the Trading Deck. I can’t say I agree with Bass in his bullish defense of gold, however. Stanley Druckenmiller, a legendary investor and a former top trader under George Soros, had perhaps the most interesting macro perspective. Druckenmiller argued that the commodity supercycle—the massive decade-long bull market enjoyed by most commodities—is over. The primary culprit? A slowdown in commodity demand from China. I would take Druckenmiller seriously here. This is a man who enjoyed a 30-year run without losing money and who is one of the best managers alive today. Druckenmiller sees the slowdown in China—coming at a time when commodity production is being ramped up globally—resulting in a supply glut and sharply lower prices. This is good news for companies with large raw materials costs and for countries that import large volumes of commodities, but it is very bad news for Brazil, South Africa and Australia, among other resource-rich countries. Still, you might want to take the words of all of these masters of the universe with a grain of salt the size of their egos. 88% of hedge fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 last year. Disclosures: Sizemore Capital has no positions in any security mentioned. This article first appeared on MarketWatch . SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.
NetApp Earnings: Demand, Margins And Strategy Updates In Focus
NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) is set to announce its Q4 FY 2013 results on May 21, and we expect overall revenues to register mid-single digit growth. While the storage hardware business may continue to witness a decline, this should be negated by the growth in software and services businesses. Gross margins are expected to improve with more revenues coming in from the high margin software and services businesses. Last quarter, NetApp clocked $1.63 billion in revenues, up slightly on a year-over-year (y-o-y) basis. GAAP net income came in at $158 million, or $0.430 per share, compared with $120 million, or $0.32 per share, in the same period last year. Below we discuss some key business trends influencing the company’s performance.
The Most Nagging Question About Stocks
Submitted by Wall St. Daily as part of our contributors program If you constantly find yourself asking when the market is going to crash, you’re a paranoid freak. You’re not alone, either. By our best estimates, there are roughly 1.2 million such freaks trading the market each day. What would happen if all these paranoid maniacs decided to sell? Well, it’d look a lot like the Hindenburg crash of 1937, which I just happened to watch a documentary about last night. Look, we’re all human, which means it’s perfectly natural to be a bit paranoid, given that the market keeps hitting new, all-time highs (on what seems like a daily basis). However, asking about it with no way of arriving at an answer makes no sense at all. Didn’t you know that only purpose-driven paranoia is productive and acceptable? To that end, on Wednesday, I introduced you to my trusty “ Bear Market Checklist,” which provides a systematic way to assess whether or not anxiety over a stock market collapse is, indeed, warranted. Full disclosure: I can’t take credit for the checklist. It actually represents a compilation of reliable bear market indicators monitored by myself, along with other noteworthy Wall Street veterans. Like Richard Bernstein and Morgan Stanley’s ( MS ) Chief Investment Strategist (and author of the must-read investment book, The Art of Asset Allocation ), David Darst. However, the fact that others find the indicators worthwhile should only boost your confidence in using it. Now, earlier in the week, I just had time to cover the first four indicators out of nine. Today, I’m finishing the job, so you’ll be fully equipped to answer the most nagging question about the stock market. Let’s get to it… ~Bear Market Warning Sign #5: A Peak in New 52-Week Highs Bull markets can’t keep rising on the backs of a few stocks. To the contrary, the rally must be broad-based. It must have “breadth,” as Wall Street pros like to say. And we can easily measure the rally’s breadth by monitoring the number of new 52-week highs. An early warning sign that a run-up might be losing steam is a declining number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs. As I’ve shared before, Ned Davis Research found that the average bull market ends 30 weeks after the number of new 52-week highs tops out. So when was the last time this occurred during this bull market? Two weeks ago? Two months ago? Try two days ago! As Bespoke Investment Group reports, “An astounding 37.2% of stocks in the S&P 500… hit new 52-week highs [on Wednesday].” Based on the averages, even if that reading ends up being the tippy top, this bull market could endure until December 11, 2013. ~Bear Market Warning Sign #6: Cash Crunch For stocks to keep hitting new highs, investors need to keep buying more shares. And that takes cash. But unlike the government, which can simply print more money as needed, individuals can’t. So by monitoring cash balances on the sidelines, we can determine if there’s any fuel left to propel share prices higher – once investors find themselves in the buying mood. Again, there’s nothing to worry about right now. Although I shared on Monday that investors are rotating out of money market funds into stocks, there’s still plenty more cash to go around. To be exact, there’s another $2.583 trillion in money market mutual funds, according to the latest tally by the Investment Company Institute. That’s down about $1.2 trillion since the bull market began. But it’s about $1 trillion more than right before the dot-com collapse. And it’s about $2 trillion more than the lows hit during the early 1990s. Any way you look at it, there’s more than enough cash to keep fueling this rally. ~Bear Market Warning Sign #7: Get Shorty! The “smart money” has a pretty good track record of increasing their short bets ahead of stock market declines. Therefore, if we’re so overdue for a correction, we should see short interest creeping higher. Yeah, that’s not happening. Short sellers appear to be borrowing a page from Taylor Swift’s book. They remain completely noncommittal. The short interest as a percentage of float for the S&P 1500 Index stands at a measly 5.7%. That’s almost exactly where it stood one month ago when I last brought this indicator to your attention. Yet the S&P 500 Index has rallied another 5% since that time. ~Bear Market Warning Sign #8: Runaway Valuations Bull markets give way to bear markets when valuations get overstretched. Consider: Prior to the dot-com collapse and the Great Recession, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P 500 Index reached almost 30. Today, though, it stands a tad over 16. We’re nowhere close to the danger zone. Not to mention, we’re looking good on a forward P/E ratio basis, too. As of May 10, the forward P/E ratio stood at 14.2, which is only slightly above the 10-year average of 14.1, according to FactSet. ~Bear Market Warning Sign #9: Stocks Can Only Go Up The time to be wary of a stock market collapse comes when everyone (and their mom) gets bullish and starts buying stocks. That’s not now. As Darst says, “Nobody is buying stocks.” Exaggeration? Maybe a little bit. But the point remains: We’re nowhere close to a Great Rotation into stocks. There’s no one running around saying that “stocks can only go up” – like they did about real estate not too long ago. The data backs me up, too… Take the most recent sentiment readings from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), for instance. They’re not even close to being out of whack. The latest bullish sentiment reading checked in at 38.5%, compared to an average reading of 38.8% since 1987. And the latest bearish sentiment reading clocked in at 29.3%, which is right in line with its long-term average of 30.6%. Then there’s the STALSTOX Index, which measures the average recommended allocation for stocks by U.S. chief strategists. It’s not overwhelmingly bullish, either. Currently, it rests at 49.2%, down from 61% at the start of 2012. Bottom line: If you’re prone to worry, I suggest you keep this checklist handy. It’s a much more reliable way of pinpointing exactly when this bull market is losing steam.
Want Dividend Growth? Go for Big Tech Over Utilities
Submitted by Sizemore Investment Letter as part of our contributors program Investors are starved for yield. It’s not exactly breaking news. With traditional savings vehicles such as savings accounts, CDs, and bonds yielding next to nothing, investors have been flocking to dividend-paying stocks for years. On the surface, this makes all the sense in the world. Unlike fixed income investments, dividend-paying stocks tend to enjoy rising payouts over time (or at least they do if you choose them well). There‘s just one problem with this. Defensive, dividend-paying sectors are, as a group, expensive relative to the broader market. Investors are paying a premium for slow growth…which is not exactly a recipe for long-term investment success. As an example, consider the utilities sector. The Utilities Select Sector SPDR ( $ XLU ), a popular ETF proxy for the sector, trades for 16 times earnings and yields just 3.7%. Utilities have had good multi-year runs. In the 2003-2007 bull market, utilities were actually one of the best-performing sectors. But it’s hard to get excited about them at current prices. Surprisingly, some of the best dividend deals on offer are in the tech sector. Microsoft ( $ MSFT ), Intel ( $ INTC ) and Cisco Systems ( $ CSCO ) yield 2.8%, 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively, and all trade at very modest valuations. All have also been aggressively raising their dividend in recent years. Cisco has nearly tripled its dividend in the past year and a half, and Microsoft and Intel have raised their dividends by 15% and 7%, respectively, in the past year. Not bad for boring “old” technology companies. If you are building an income portfolio, you have a choice. You can load on slow-growth utilities. Or, you can build a portfolio of solid technology companies with dividends not too much lower that offer far great potential for growth in the dividend stream over time. The choice should be obvious. Action to take: Buy “Big Tech” for dividend growth. Use a stop loss appropriate for your risk tolerance; I recommend something in the ballpark of a 20% trailing stop. This article first appeared on TraderPlanet . SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.
Southwest Raises Dividend As Outlook Improves
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) quadrupled its quarterly dividend payout to 4 cents a share from 1 cent a share in an announcement Wednesday. The low-cost carrier also authorized an additional $500 million to its share buyback program, taking its program’s total buyback authorization to $1.5 billion. Of this, Southwest has used $725 million to date and has an authorization worth $775 million left to repurchase its stock. The carrier further indicated that it will use $250 million of its remaining authorization for an accelerated share repurchase. This decision from Southwest comes on the heels of Delta announcing the restart of its dividend program. Last week, Delta announced a quarterly dividend payout of 6 cents a share to its shareholders and authorized stock repurchases worth $500 million. These steps from two of the largest U.S. carriers to return significant portions of their cash flow from operations to shareholders point to the improving financial health of the U.S. airline industry. We currently have a stock price estimate of $14 for Southwest, marginally below its current market price. See our complete analysis of Southwest here Southwest Raises Dividend Southwest will pay the hiked 4 cents a share in quarterly dividend on June 26 to its shareholders on record as of June 5, 2013. Taking the roughly 723 million shares of Southwest into account, the carrier will pay around $29 million to its shareholders every quarter or $126 million every year. In comparison, Southwest had generated a profit of $421 million last year. Rising Profits At Most U.S. Airlines Just a few years ago, the return of such significant amounts by airlines to their shareholders seemed quite remote. However, the growing demand for flights driven by the economic recovery from the financial crisis less competition in the airline industry resulting from consolidation drove up profits at most carriers. Although Southwest had continued to pay dividends even during the peak of the economic crisis in 2008-09, this raise in its dividend payouts to a respectable (by airline industry standards) yield of around 1% was driven by its earnings growth during 2009-12. At the same time, the initiation of dividends from Delta last week at a yield of nearly 1.2% could have catalyzed Southwest’s decision to hike its dividends. Looking ahead, Southwest and Delta will likely be able to continue to pay dividends at these levels to their shareholders at least for the foreseeable future, as demand for flights is holding steady and fuel prices are not expected to rise significantly. Also, the addition to the industry’s flying capacity is happening in a disciplined manner which will ensure healthy occupancy rates across airlines. Low-cost carriers like Southwest are adding flying capacity at slower rates while legacy carriers like United (NYSE:UAL), American and Delta (NYSE:DAL) are either reducing or keeping their flying capacity flat. At present, apart from Southwest and Delta, Alaska Airlines (NYSE:ALK) is the only other U.S. carrier that returns cash to its shareholders through share repurchases, but it does not have a dividend program yet. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
Dell's Earnings Reflect The Continued Challenging Business Enviornment
Dell (NASDAQ:DELL), which is in the middle of a takeover battle between Carl Ichan and founder Michael Dell, reported its Q1 FY14 results on Thursday. It saw a 2% y-o-y decline in revenues to $14.07 billion as it continues to diversify into end-to-end solutions in order to reduce its dependence on PC sales. Net income also declined by 79% y-o-y to $130 million as weak PC demand and higher investment in research and marketing eroded profits. It reported GAAP earnings per share of 7 cents, down 81% y-o-y, and non-GAAP EPS of 21 cents, down 51%. The shift in Dell’s focus to end-to-end scalable solutions is evident as its enterprise solutions, services and software revenue increased by 12% y-o-y to $5.5 billion. Despite this increase, end-user computing division revenues, linked to PC sales, declined by 9% to $8.9 billion which indicates a challenging business environment in the personal computing industry. See our full analysis on Dell Server and Networking Division Drive Top-line Growth The server and networking division is Dell’s second largest division and makes up ~10% of its total value. For Q1 FY14, Dell reported a 14% y-o-y increase in revenues to $2.67 billion. One of the primary reasons for this growth was strong demand in Dell’s hyper-scale data center servers. The company continues to power 75% of the top social media sites worldwide. Dell’s 12th generation servers, which have higher computing power and caters to social media platforms, were sold at higher price points, which resulted in an increase in average selling price (ASP) for the server division. However, we expect the ASP to decline to ~$200,000 by the end of our forecast period as competition intensifies and companies such as IBM ans HP look to increase their market shares. Service Division Adds To Profitability The services division contributes only ~15% to Dell’s revenue but makes up 30% of its estimated value. In Q1 FY14, revenue from the services division increased by 2% y-o-y to $2.1 billion. Dell is targeting $5 billion in sales in the coming years, and it plans to achieve this by targeting key areas such as network security, cloud storage, systems management, business analytics, virtualization and thin client systems. Additionally, Dell’s security and systems management division reported an 11% y-o-y increase in revenues to $612 million in Q1, and Dell expects this will be a billion dollar business in the next few years. We expect services to be the key growth driver for Dell as it has a higher growth rate and profit margin compared to the computer hardware business. In Q1 FY14, the operating profit margin for the services division increased by 140 bps y-o-y to 17.6%. Considering the improvement in operating margin, we expect Dell to maintain its gross margin at 34% until the end of our forecast period. Moreover, as Dell continues to expand its portfolio in the services domain, we expect revenues to increase to $11.5 billion by the end of our forecast period. PC And Mobile Devices Business Continues To Suffer Weak PC demand across the world continued to plague computer manufacturers as PC shipments declined by 13.9%. Dell also felt the heat and saw its PC business revenue decline by 2% y-o-y to $3.27 billion in the quarter. However, its PC division did better than the industry as the company shifted its focus from the lower-end to the mid and high-end PC market. However, Dell’s mobility business, which includes tablets and mobile phones, underperformed the global Smart Mobile Device (SMD) segment. While globally SMDs shipped increased by 37% y-0-y in Q1, Dell’s mobility revenues declined by 16% y-o-y to $ 3.6 billion as incumbents like Apple and Google continued to dominate the segment. (( Smart mobile device shipments exceed 300 million in Q1 2013, May 9 2013, www.canalys.com) The PC and mobile division together with the hardware peripheral division forms the end user computing (EUC) division of Dell. The EUC division reported a 9% y-o-y decline in revenue to $8.9 billion. We expect revenues from this vertical will continue to suffer due to intense competition from incumbents and pricing pressure on Dell. We are in the processing of updating our model for Dell and have a $12.83 Trefis price estimate, which is ~7% below the current market price. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
Sina Sees Strong Growth Helped By Rising Weibo Monetization
Sina (NASDAQ:SINA), a Chinese online media company, posted net revenue of $126 million in Q1 2013, which represented an annual growth rate of 19%, exceeding its initial guidance of 13%-17% growth. Advertising revenues, which account for about 75% of total revenue, rose by 20% annually in Q1 2013 to $94.3 million. N0n-advertising revenues registered 14% y-o-y growth as the 17% annual decline in mobile value added services business was more than offset by significant growth in Weibo’s value-added services revenues. While Sina’s profitability continues to remain week, it showed some signs of improvement during the quarter. Gross margin increased to 51.3% from 46.2% in Q1 2012 mainly on account of increased profits in the advertising business. Operating margin came in at -7.8% compared to -17% in Q1 2012. We expect profits to improve during the rest of 2013 as the revenue growth should outpace costs for the company. However, costs related to mobile strategy and product development for Alibaba merchants could cause headwinds to the bottom-line growth during the year. In the earnings call, Sina’s management indicated that the Internet advertising market outlook in China looks soft in the short term. However, we think Sina could continue to see strong revenue growth in the future as its Weibo monetization initiatives appear to be kicking off and Alibaba partnership will boost revenues for the company over the long run. Check out our complete analysis of Sina Update Regarding The Recent Alibaba-Sina Deal Alibaba (a major e-commerce player in China) had recently acquired an 18% stake in Weibo for $586 million. The partnership will see the two companies come closer in areas of account connectivity, data sharing, online payment, and online marketing for merchants. It will also help connect millions of merchants on Alibaba with the large user base on Weibo, which will accelerate the pace of monetization for Weibo. Sina and Alibaba will jointly explore opportunities in the social commerce and mobile commerce markets of China. This recent deal is expected to rake in around $380 million in advertising revenues for Weibo during the next three years on a gradual basis. Sina will create a dedicated advertising inventory for Alibaba’s merchants, and this will not compete with the existing inventory being used by other brand advertisers on the platform. Weibo-Related Metrics In Q1 2013 Amid intense competition from WeChat (a mobile messaging application by Tencent), Sina registered a moderate increase in its Weibo user base during the quarter. The total number of registered accounts on Weibo rose by 6.6% q-o-q to reach 536 million at the end of first quarter. Daily active users also grew by 7.8% sequentially to reach 49.8 million in March 2013. While the average time spent by daily active users on Weibo had witnessed a slight decrease in Q4 2012, this figure saw some improvement during the first quarter. Weibo advertising revenues were seen at $18.8 million, which represented around 20% of overall advertising revenues for the company. Revenue from Weibo value-added services (which includes web games and membership fees) saw more than 150% annual growth during the quarter. Mobile Strategy Remains The Key Focus Area For Sina Sina continues to see enhanced mobile penetration of its products in line with the recent trend towards mobile Internet in China. In March 2013, around 76.5% of Weibo daily active users utilized mobile to access the platform. In order to leverage this trend and enhance mobile monetization, Sina is actively investing in its mobile platform development. Sina has prioritized the mobile platform (over desktop) for any new product development and is focusing on improving the user experience of its mobile application. During the quarter, Sina improved the messaging system on its Weibo mobile application and also relaunched a new Sina News mobile app. It also accelerated its efforts to enhance mobile monetization by testing a new advertising system with selective SME enterprises. Mobile gaming is also being targeted by the company to enhance its Weibo value added services revenues. The share of mobile in Weibo advertising revenues stood at 34% in Q1 2013 compared to 25% in Q4 2012. We expect this proportion to steadily rise in the future on account of the efforts being taken by the company to bolster mobile monetization. Guidance for Q2 2013 - Non- GAAP net revenues in the range of $143 – $147 million, representing an annual growth rate of around 13% to 16%. - Advertising revenues are estimated between $117-$119 million, while non-GAAP non-advertising revenues are forecast at around $26-$28 million. We are in the process of revising our $57 price estimate for Sina’s stock . Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
Banking Round-Up: Price-to-Book Ratio Comparisons Q1 2013
The price-to-book (P/B) ratio of a company’s share is often used by investors as a quick tool to gauge whether the shares are being priced too cautiously or too aggressively, as marked differences between the price of a company’s share in the equity market compared to its book of accounts, are often a sign of under- or over-valuation. But sometimes, skewed P/B ratios have a different story to tell. Very low P/B ratios may actually be because of serious problems with the company’s business model, whereas high P/B ratios could very well be because of strong optimism about the future potential of a company’s business model. And as it turns out, no other sector captures the wide range of P/B ratios and their meanings so well as the banks do. While banking giants Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) trade at considerable discounts to their book value, JPMorgan’s (NYSE: JPM) share price hovers around its book value, whereas U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) finds itself at the far end of the spectrum, with its shares demanding close to double than what they are worth on the bank’s books. In this article we provide an overview of the trend displayed by P/B ratios for some of the country’s biggest commercial banks over the last two years, while reflecting on the possible reasons for the disparities.
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