Trefis Helps You Understand How a Company's Products Impact Its Stock Price
COMPANY OF THE DAY : HOME DEPOT
Home Depot released earnings earlier this week and posted strong growth despite a prolonged winter season.
The housing market recovery is giving consumers confidence in buying homes and refurbishing existing ones. Its interiors business showed noticeable growth and is a good indicator of housing related spending.
Gross margins ticked higher to 34.9%.
See Complete Analysis for Home Depot
The housing market recovery is giving consumers confidence in buying homes and refurbishing existing ones. Its interiors business showed noticeable growth and is a good indicator of housing related spending.
Gross margins ticked higher to 34.9%.
See Complete Analysis for Home Depot
Related Companies:
Best Buy
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Colgate-Palmolive
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Costco
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Kimberly-Clark
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FORECAST OF THE DAY : AMD'S EMBEDDED PROCESSORS REVENUE
AMD's stock has leapt 50% in the last two months on news that its chips will be used in Sony's PlayStation 4 and in Microsoft's new Xbox.
While AMD's focus on mobile is an important one, we believe the low margin profile of this business does not warrant the huge run in the company's stock.
Read more...
While AMD's focus on mobile is an important one, we believe the low margin profile of this business does not warrant the huge run in the company's stock.
Read more...
RECENT ACTIVITY ON TREFIS
Should OpenTable Worry About Online Delivery Services Like Seamless-GrubHub?
Last month, the online food delivery company Eat24, kicked-off its new iPad app with a rather interesting announcement on its website: Will OpenTable Survive? Eat24 Releases iPad App . More recently, Seamless and GrubHub announced their decision to merge, to be able to serve the online food ordering industry better. The admittedly cheeky headline from Eat24 and the merger announcement from Seamless got us thinking about how the growing popularity of online and mobile-based food ordering services in the country would impact business for the online restaurant reservation leader OpenTable (NASDAQ:OPEN) if at all. OpenTable is dealing with a fair share of competitors already with other online reservation players like Urbanspoon, Livebookings and SeatMe gaining prominence through aggressive pricing on online reservation systems similar to its own. And the idea that the company will also have to contend with another group of competitors does not bode very well for the company’s stock value. In our opinion, OpenTable does not have much to fear from companies that focus on allowing diners to order food online – notwithstanding Eat24′s claim of bringing down the company. Why do we think so? Simply because both offerings target two completely different sets of diners, looking for two completely different experiences.
Is the Short Yen / Long Japanese Equities Trade Over?
Submitted by Sizemore Investment Letter as part of our contributors program In volatility we haven’t seen since the Fukushima disaster, Japanese shares dropped by 7% on Thursday before bouncing off of those lows later in the day. Ouch! The ostensible cause? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that QE Infinity might—just might—come to end if U.S. economic data improve, and China’s PMI came in lower than expected. A more likely explanation is the recent surge in Japanese government bond yields; the 10-year yield briefly jumped above 1% before falling back into the 80-basis-range. Japanese stocks were definitely due for a breather; the Nikkei had been up by more than 50% year to date. But does Thursday’s action point to something bigger? Could it be that the short yen / long Japanese equities trade is over? We’ll see. I expect that the yen still has much further to fall, and this may or may not mean a short-term rally in Japanese equities. Related video: Japan, China and their Ticking Demographic Time Bombs The real trading opportunity here, however, is in Japanese bonds. This is a trade where the risk and potential reward are asymmetric; your downside is modest while your upside is enormous. Japanese 10-year yields cannot go much lower than current levels. At time of writing, the yield was 0.86%. The all-time low was hit last month at just under 0.50%. Could yields retest those old lows? Of course, anything is possible. But given the scale of the money printing involved, I wouldn’t bet on it. A far more likely outcome is something akin to the Eurozone crisis whereby the bond vigilantes mercilessly punished the countries with high budget deficits and debt loads. Japan’s total debt is roughly 100 percentage points of GDP higher than that of Italy and its yearly budget deficit is substantially bigger, yet it pays a yield that is more than 75% lower. Given that Japan is no longer a high-savings-rate country, they cannot depend on their citizens to bail them out this time. And if the Bank of Japan steps in too aggressively, they run the risk of undermining confidence in the yen and turning its orderly decline into a rout…which would almost certainly cause yields on Japan’s debt to soar. To take advantage of this, I recommend investors short Japanese debt. The easiest way to do this is via the Powershares DB 3x Inverse Jap Gov Bond ETN ( $ JGBD ). Be careful here because this is a leveraged ETN that also happens to be somewhat thinly traded. Give this trade a little room to run. I would use a stop loss near the old lows $17.50. Your risk here is manageable. If I’m wrong, you have lost roughly 8%. But if I’m right, and the bond vigilantes finally turn on Japan, we might be able to double our money in a matter of weeks or months. Disclosures: Sizemore Capital is long JGBD. This article first appeared on TraderPlanet . SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.
Trina Solar Preview: Lower Shipments Expected But All Eyes Are On Pricing
Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL) is expected to release its Q1 2013 results on May 29. Like most Chinese solar companies, Trina’s performance over the last few quarters has been weighed down by lower selling prices that were brought about by intense competition and industry-wide overcapacity. However, Trina has been distinguishing itself from other companies through its recent focus on high efficiency panels and also because of its relatively strong balance sheet. Here are some of the factors that we will be watching when the company releases its earnings. See our full analysis for Trina Solar Lower Shipment Guidance, But All Eyes On Pricing During Q4 2012, Trina’s revenues rose by around 1.5% sequentially to $302 million thanks to better panel shipments while operating losses narrowed to around $70 million from $76 million in Q3 2012. However, the going seems to have been tough in this quarter as the company recently reduced its Q1 shipment guidance to between 390 and 400 MW from an earlier estimate of between 420 and 430 MW. Additionally, the gross margins guidance remains quite low at between 1% to 3%. As of Q4 2012, Trina has posted six consecutive quarterly losses as panel prices fell sharply. Over 2012 we estimate that Trina’s panel price per watt declined by around 40% to about $0.80. However, going forward, the company’s management has indicated that it wouldn’t compromise on selling prices to drive sales. Additionally, in April, Trina’s Chairman Gao Ji indicated that the company could possibly return to profitability from the second half of this year. We will be closely observing the firm’s selling prices over the quarter as well as the firm’s plans for achieving a turnaround. Progress In China Will Be Critical To Growth Although Europe has traditionally been Trina’s largest market, it could face headwinds in the near term as the E.U. looks set to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar products as early as June. (Related Read: E.U. Looks Set To Impose Anti-Dumping Duties On Chinese Solar Panels ) To offset any decline and drive growth, Trina has been counting on markets such as China and Japan. Revenues from China more than doubled during Q4 2012 to around $100 million, accounting for almost one-third of overall revenues. China is a promising market for Trina since the government has set a target of adding around 10 GW of solar capacity this year and provides attractive feed-in-tariffs and subsidies to encourage investments. As of last year, China was the world’s second largest market for solar products, and this year it could overtake Germany to become the world’s largest market. Trina Solar expects Chinese demand to account for as much as 25% of annual sales for 2013, up from around 10% last year. Updates On High Performance Panels And Sales To Japan Trina has been increasingly focusing on higher efficiency panels which are preferred for applications in distributed solar systems such as the rooftops. The firm expanded manufacturing capacity for its high-end Honey polycrystalline panels by around 500 MW last year. While these panels cost slightly more than traditional multi-crystalline panels, they offer higher efficiency of around 15.9%. Profit margins are also likely to be higher for these panels since they require less raw material to manufacture every watt of capacity and their sales growth could help boost overall profitability. These high performance panels are particularly well suited for markets such as Japan, which value compact systems. Japan has among the highest feed-in-tariffs in the world, which are expected to propel the country to one of the top-three solar markets in the near term. Systems costs in the country are typically higher than in the rest of the world. Japan accounted for around 7% of Trina’s sales in Q4 and we will be watching the company’s progress in expanding further into the Japanese market. Understand how a company’s products impact its stock price on Trefis
AT&T Tacks On Additional Fee To Support Growth In A Saturated Market
With subscriber growth stalling in a saturated wireless market, AT&T (NYSE:T) is looking to drive top-line growth through higher subscriber fees. The carrier recently announced the addition of a new monthly administrative fee of 61 cents to the bills of all its postpaid contract lines, effective May 1st. The fee will be charged ‘below-the-line’, or separate from the monthly service fees that usually appear at the beginning of the phone bill, and be levied on top of the 50 cents per line regulatory cost recovery charge that AT&T already charges. Other carriers such as Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and Sprint (NYSE:S) have already been charging fees under the same heads for quite some time now. AT&T said that the new fee will help it cover the costs of interconnection, cell site rents and maintenance. While the fee of 61 cents per month ($7.32 per year) may not sound like a lot to an individual subscriber, it adds up to a significant amount for AT&T. With about 70 million postpaid subscribers registered on its network as of Q1 2013, AT&T could generate additional revenues of more than $500 million annually assuming that it doesn’t add any more subscribers from hereon. Adjusted for the divestiture of the Yellow Pages business last year, the additional charge could contribute to around 0.3% growth in revenues this year. The carrier had guided for a 2% growth in top-line for the full year 2013, but adjusted revenues grew only 0.9% in the first quarter. It seems as though the measure to levy an additional fee was taken to counter the effect of the saturated wireless market and the lower regulatory fees that the carrier had collected last quarter. See our complete analysis for AT&T here ARPUs In Focus In A Saturated Wireless Market The U.S. wireless market has become increasingly saturated recently with wireless connections having exceeded the population in mid-2011. This has made the acquisition of new subscribers, especially those that pay for the higher-margin data plans, very tough for the wireless carriers. AT&T’s dismal postpaid net adds in recent quarters is to an extent, reflective of this industry-wide phenomenon, but Verizon’s comparatively much better performance shows that LTE coverage is the differentiating factor here. While Verizon added close to 680,000 postpaid subscribers last quarter, AT&T did less than 300,000 in the same period. Last year as well, Verizon added over 5 million postpaid subscribers, more than three and a half times of AT&T. With the wireless industry getting more saturated, AT&T’s focus has shifted from acquiring new subscribers to converting more of its existing base to smartphones and increasing ARPU. AT&T’s smartphone users consume more data and pay on an average two times more than non-smartphone subscribers. However, smartphone penetration of AT&T’s postpaid subscriber base has already reached 70% in Q1, up from about 61% a year ago. What this means is that AT&T will find it increasingly difficult to add new smartphone users as time wears on, and ARPU growth may slow. The carrier is therefore promoting its high-speed 4G LTE data network and Mobile Share Plans that encourage users to add more mobile devices to their plans and consume more data. Adding small fees to ‘below-the-line’ items seems to be another strategy to increase ARPU levels without affecting the prices of the monthly service plans that the carriers actively market. This strategy may not however work out in the long run, since the carrier would have to increase such fees on a regular basis to drive growth, and then potentially face a public outcry or regulatory disapproval as a result. Last year, Verizon had to withdraw plans to impose a $2 convenience charge on subscribers paying their bills online or over the phone after a public outcry. Fuelling data usage by transitioning subscribers to LTE and pushing Mobile Share Plans is what should drive long-term future growth. AT&T will therefore look to close the LTE gap with Verizona by executing on its accelerated LTE rollout plans well in order to have a majority of its LTE network ready by the end of the year. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
Philip Morris Set To Acquire Remaining Stake Of Its Mexican JV
Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) is set to acquire the remaining 20% stake in its joint venture Philip Morris Mexico SA de CV for approximately $700 million from its partner Grupo Carso SAB de CV . In 2007, the company had acquired an additional 30% stake in the 50-50 joint venture for $1.1 billion. After acquiring the remaining 20%, Philip Morris International will attain 100% ownership of its Mexican business, Philip Morris Mexico (PMM). The company has a stronghold in the Mexican cigarettes market as it sells almost 3 out of every 4 tax-paid cigarettes sold. The transaction which is set to complete by September 30 this year will boost Philip Morris’ fourth quarter earnings. Philip Morris International is a leading international tobacco company with its products sold in more than 180 nations worldwide. Until its spin-off in March 2008, Philip Morris International was an operating company of Altria Group (NYSE:MO). Excluding the U.S. and China, the company holds more than 28% of the total international cigarette market, led by its flagship brand Marlboro .
Salesforce Shows Strong Growth But Soaring Costs Drag On Its Value
Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) continued to exhibit double digit revenue growth in its Q1 fiscal 2014 results. Revenues grew by 28% on a yearly basis to $893 million for the quarter ending May 31, 2013. Growth was mainly driven by its core businesses Sales Cloud and Service Cloud as the company continues to gain market share in the customer relationship management (CRM) software market. New products such as Marketing Cloud is also gaining traction with customers. However, increasing marketing and R&D expenditures weighed on its operating margins and profits. Non-GAAP net income increased by 10% to $61 million. Free cash flow increased by 33% to $229 million in the first quarter as capital expenditure as a percentage of revenues declined. Based on strong growth of existing products and growing adoption of its new offerings, the company slightly raised its fiscal 2014 revenue guidance to $3.83 billion and $3.87 billion, up 25% to 27%, on a yearly basis. For the next quarter, the company guided revenues of $931 -$936 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.47-$0.49. The stock corrected sharply despite the higher full year guidance, as Q2 guidance was below the market expectations. Despite ballooning costs, Salesforce’s share price has risen over 25% in the past one year in anticipation of continued growth. Below we take a detailed look at the key highlights of the earnings. See our full analysis for Salesforce.com Continuing Adoption of Cloud CRM Services Drives Growth The growth in Sales cloud and Services cloud was mainly driven by the growing adoption of cloud-based CRM services across enterprises as they look at various ways to cut costs. The Software as a Service (SaaS) model makes it cheaper to adopt and easier to integrate the deployment on the cloud. This trend is evident from the fact that while on-premise CRM software majors Oracle and SAP reported mid-single digit growth, Salesforce revenues continued to grow by near 30%. Further, Salesforce, which was the market leader in cloud CRM, became the largest CRM platform in the world replacing SAP, according to Gartner. Deferred or unearned revenue on the balance sheet increased 30% in Q1 over the same period last year to approximately $1.7 billion. Deferred revenue implies that the contract has already been signed and advance payment has been received against it. However, it is recognized on the income statement only when the product or service has been delivered. Further, unbilled deferred revenue, which is the revenue that is contracted but not yet invoiced and is off the balance sheet for now, was close to $3.6 billion and grew 33%. These figures point towards high revenue growth in the near term as Saleforce begins to realize them in their income statement. While the management said that its Marketing Cloud suite continued to make inroads into the market, it remains unclear if it is creating any shareholder value considering the huge amount spent by the company on the acquisitions of Buddy Media and Radian6 coupled with a significant increase in marketing expenditures. Rising Costs Weigh On Profit, But Stock-Based Compensation Could Be A Concern As expected, overall gross margins declined as the cost of revenues has been trending higher. Stronger dollar also weighed on gross margins as a significant chunk of the company’s costs are in the U.S. dollar. Most of the revenue growth was offset by rising R&D and marketing costs as the company invests and pushes its new businesses, particularly Marketing Cloud. R&D costs have gone up by more than 40% to $132 million while marketing expenses are up nearly 26% at $466 million. However, one of the key aspects to note is the significantly higher stock-based compensation costs, which rose over 40%. While this is a non-cash cost and doesn’t affect cash flows directly like cash compensation to employees, it does result in stock dilution. Total stock-based compensation was $114.8 million during the quarter, more than 10% of the quarter’s revenues. On an annualized basis, this would imply close to 2% dilution on the current market cap of $25 billion. We are updating our $33 Trefis price estimate for Salesforce.com to reflect earnings and recent business trends. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
Kraft Foods $62 Fair Value Bolstered By Productivity Gains And Strong Brands
Kraft Foods Group (NASDAQ:KRFT) shares have rallied by over 10% in the last month. The stock is currently trading at more than 10% discount to our $62 price estimate. We attribute our valuation premium to the company’s strong brands, high household penetration and increasing profitability. Kraft Foods Group manufactures and markets packaged food products, including beverages, cheeses, convenient meals and various grocery products. The company primarily deals in the North American markets with the majority of its sales coming from the U.S. and Canadian markets. It generates annual revenues topping $18 billion and has guided for adjusted earnings per share target of $2.75 for 2013.
Weekly Telecom Notes: Verizon's LTE Advantage, AT&T Hikes Fees And Sprint's Clearwire Bid
The past week saw quite a few developments in the telecom sector. In a bid to win over Clearwire’s remaining shareholders, Sprint (NYSE:S) improved upon its earlier $3 per share bid by 14% in a final offer that also exceeds Dish’s competing bid. Verizon (NYSE:VZ) continued to march ahead of rivals in LTE coverage, adding its 497th LTE market this week and announcing the completion of almost 95% of its initial LTE network. AT&T (NYSE:T) informed its subscribers that their monthly bills will now include a 61 cent monthly administrative charge – a ‘below-the-line’ charge that allows the carrier to improve its top-line without increasing the widely marketed monthly service fees. Sprint Sprint raised its bid for Clearwire Tuesday in a last-ditch attempt to win over the company’s remaining shareholders who have been clamoring for a better deal. The improved bid stands at $3.40 per share, beating Dish Network’s competing bid of $3.30 per share offered in January. Sprint said that the sweetened offer was its ‘best and final’ one, implying that it isn’t willing to enter into a protracted bidding war to acquire the remaining nearly 50% of Clearwire that it doesn’t already own. Some of Clearwire’s shareholders such as Crest Financial, who were displeased with the earlier bid, weren’t too impressed with the new one either. However, with majority shareholder Sprint unlikely to vote in favor of any counter-bid for Clearwire, this may be the last chance for the company’s minority shareholders to salvage a deal before an imminent bankruptcy filing in the coming months. Clearwire filing for bankruptcy protection wouldn’t be in Sprint’s favor either since the former’s spectrum assets would then have to be auctioned off to pay the debtors before the shareholders. Sprint’s majority stake-holding would then count for zilch, and it would have to fight with other deep-pocketed rivals such as Verizon and AT&T for Clearwire’s spectrum, making it even more expensive for the third-placed carrier. And it is the spectrum that Sprint is after with its Clearwire acquisition bid. In the top 100 markets in the U.S., Clearwire has around 160 MHz of spectrum on average, which would go a long way in bolstering Sprint’s LTE network. Moreover, the two companies already have a deal in place, according to which Sprint will be able to offload 4G LTE traffic onto Clearwire’s planned TD-LTE network. (see Sprint Raises Its Clearwire Bid In Final Offer As Bankruptcy Looms ) Verizon Despite enjoying a commanding lead over rivals in the 4G LTE deployment arena, Verizon isn’t letting off the figurative gas pedal anytime soon. The largest wireless carrier in the U.S. recently added six new markets to its ever growing LTE coverage, taking the tally to 497 LTE markets which is almost 95% of its existing 3G footprint. This keeps it on track to complete the initial nationwide LTE deployment by the middle of the year – a full two quarters ahead of what the company had initially expected. After the end of the second quarter, Verizon will begin its second round of LTE deployment which will see capacity additions to existing markets through the use of small cells and the deployment of AWS spectrum which it acquired from the cable companies last year. While Verizon is nearing the end of its initial LTE deployment phase, closest rival AT&T isn’t expected to reach the same milestone before the end of 2o14. AT&T’s LTE network is currently available in about 210 U.S. markets, and will cover about 270 million Americans by the end of this year. Sprint is way behind with its LTE coverage in all of 88 markets across the U.S. as compared to AT&T’s 209 and Verizon’s 497. With 4G LTE expected to dominate the wireless scene in the years to come, Verizon has done really well to earn this early lead by executing well on its network transition plans. As a result, the company has been exceeding expectations in recent quarters, adding a disproportionate number of subscribers at the expense of rivals. (see Verizon’s Dominant LTE Lead Draws New Customers In A Saturated Market ) AT&T With subscriber growth stalling in a saturated wireless market, AT&T is looking to drive top-line growth through higher subscriber fees. The carrier recently announced the addition of a new monthly administrative fee of 61 cents to the bills of all its postpaid contract lines, effective May 1st. The fee will be charged ‘below-the-line’, or separate from the monthly service fees that usually appear at the beginning of the phone bill, and be levied on top of the 50 cents per line regulatory cost recovery charge that AT&T already charges. Other carriers such as Verizon and Sprint have already been charging fees under the same heads for quite some time now. AT&T said that the new fee will help it cover the costs of interconnection, cell site rents and maintenance. While the fee of 61 cents per month ($7.32 per year) may not sound like a lot to an individual subscriber, it adds up to a significant amount for AT&T. With about 70 million postpaid subscribers registered on its network as of Q1 2013, AT&T could generate additional revenues of more than $500 million annually assuming that it doesn’t add any more subscribers from hereon. Adjusted for the divestiture of the Yellow Pages business last year, the additional charge could contribute to around 0.3% growth in revenues this year. The carrier had guided for a 2% growth in top-line for the full year 2013, but adjusted revenues grew only 0.9% in the first quarter. It seems as though the measure to levy an additional fee was taken to counter the effect of the saturated wireless market and the lower regulatory fees that the carrier had collected last quarter. Understand How a Company’s Products Impact its Stock Price at Trefis
Perfect World's Results Are Unlikely To Deliver Near-Term Catalysts
Perfect World (NASDAQ:PWRD), a Chinese online gaming company, is scheduled to report its Q1 2013 results on May 28, 2013. We expect Q1 to be a weak quarter for the company as it has slowed down its in-gaming monetization activities and did not launch any major games during the quarter. While, Torchlight 2 (a pay per install game) contributed substantial revenues during Q3 and Q4 2012, its revenue contribution in Q1 2013 is expected to be insignificant. We expect revenue growth to pick up in the later half of 2013, post the launch of new games such as S wordsman Online, Saint Seiya Online, Dota 2, and Neverwinter. However, profitability could continue to be weak during the year on account of higher R&D and sales and marketing expenses. Check out our complete analysis of Perfect World Recap Of Q4 2012 Results In Q4 2012, Perfect World’s revenue declined by 12% annually and 2% sequentially to $109.1 million. Its profitability also declined further as its operating margin was witnessed at 1.8% in Q4 2012, as compared to 15.7% in Q3 2012 and 28.4% in Q4 2011. The sharp increase in operating expenses was caused by goodwill impairment charges related to Perfect World’s Japanese subsidiary, higher R&D expenses and impairment associated with certain smaller games. Going forward, we expect profitability to remain a concern in the short term, as the company will continue to invest in R&D to enhance its gaming portfolio. Moreover, the launch of new games during 2013 will lead to an increase in sales and marketing expenses. Upcoming Pipeline of Games Will Stem Revenue Decline Later During The Year Perfect World’s revenue declined in 2012 as it slowed down the in-game monetization activities for its existing games (to maintain their healthy life cycle) and launched very few new games during the year. Going forward, Perfect World intends to launch a diverse pipeline of games: MMORGP’s (massively multiplayer online role playing games) such as Swordsman Online and Saint Seiya Online are in the final stage of development and are expected to be released in mid-2013. Beta testing of S aint Seiya Online has already begun. Last year, the company had gained exclusive rights to operate Dota -2, a world-famous title with a unique mix of action, RTS and RPG gameplay in China. Recently, the company launched beta-testing for this game. Neverwinter, a highly anticipated game, being developed by Cryptic Studio (Perfect World’s subsidiary) is expected to be launched in Q2 2013 in North America. In addition to MMORGPs, Perfect World is also bolstering its portfolio with lighter games, such as web games and mobile games. We expect the company to launch various new web games and mobile games during 2013. On account of these efforts, we think Perfect World could see an acceleration in its revenue growth during the second half of 2013.
HP's Revenue Slides But Cost Cutting And Thicker Margins Support Shares
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) posted its Q2 earnings on May 22, and the PC giant’s earnings continued to reflect the challenging business environment across its business verticals. HP reported the steepest decline in revenues in recent years, as its revenues declined by 10% y-o-y to $ 27.6 billion in Q2 FY 13. However, HP delivered $0.87 in non-GAAP diluted earnings per share, exceeding its $0.80-$0.82 per share guidance by $0.05 per share. In our earnings preview article, we stated that HP would post a division wide decline in revenues due to lower IT spending in a tepid business environment. This earnings announcement confirmed our standing as HP reported a decline across all its divisions. However, products launched in Q1 did help HP’s enterprise group and printing division, which delivered better than expected results.
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