Will Zillow Stock Ever Get Back To Its Old High?
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Shares of Zillow Group (ZG) set their high in February 2021 with a close at $203.79. The stock last closed at $35.14, representing a small fraction of that price. Many holders continue to measure Zillow against the February 2021 close, treating the old peak as where the stock belongs and assuming a return is only a matter of time. How big a climb is that, really?
Zillow Stock Needs A 480% Gain To Get Back
Zillow stock currently sits 82.8% below its old high. Returning to that peak would require a gain of 479.9%. Stretching that climb over three years still demands an annual return of 79.7%. In short, you would be waiting on a rally much larger than the decline you have already sat through.
Has Zillow Stock Ever Gained 480% In Three Years?
Zillow stock has not managed that feat once in the last ten years. The record covers all 1,757 three-year periods of 756 trading sessions that fit inside those ten years, with one starting on each trading day through October 2023. The company may still do well over the next three years. Returning to the old high within three years, however, will require a rare feat from Zillow stock.
What Has Waiting Cost Zillow Holders?
Holders who bought at the high have now waited 5.7 years. Over those years, Zillow stock is down 82.8% before dividends, while the S&P 500 is up 94.9%, also before dividends. The cost of waiting goes beyond the direct loss on Zillow. It also includes the rise in the broader index that holders gave up by staying put.
Is Zillow The Same Business It Was Then?
Zillow brings in less revenue today than it had at its high, but the business now turns a profit.
| Zillow | At the high, February 2021 | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Share price | $203.79 | $35.14 |
| Business figures: twelve months ended | 2020-12-31 | 2026-06-30 |
| Revenue, twelve months | $3,340 million | $2,810 million |
| Operating margin | 1.1% | 1.8% |
| Net income, twelve months | -$162 million | $55.0 million |
Share prices are split-adjusted closes on February 16, 2021 and October 22, 2026. Business figures are as reported, for the twelve months to the last fiscal quarter reported on or before each date.
Revenue at Zillow in the twelve months to June 2026 was 15.9% lower than in 2020, the year before the stock reached its high. Over those same months, Zillow earned a profit. The company posted net income of $55.0 million against a loss of $162 million in 2020. Most of its sales today come from its for-sale business, which covers residential revenue and mortgages through Zillow Home Loans, with rentals providing most of the rest.
The old high was not backed by profits, and the share price back then was the unusual part. The better question for a Zillow holder is what today’s business is worth at 2.8 times its yearly sales, not when the old price will return.
Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?
Zillow holders are still waiting for the stock to get back to where it was. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.
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